Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Chasbrown]

Just watched the Countryfile forecast for this week. The cold weather spreads right across the country by Friday when the South East will be shivering at +7C. Brrrr! Winter? What winter? Same old dross. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 hours ago, Chasbrown said:

Just watched the Countryfile forecast for this week. The cold weather spreads right across the country by Friday when the South East will be shivering at +7C. Brrrr! Winter? What winter? Same old dross. 

Its turning into a right poop winter this is. Just another one for the bin. 

[Gadje]

Sorry to hear that for you. Hasn't been in lowland, I repeat - lowland Scotland. Not up a 'northern hill' either. Quite memorable number of frost days, working outside chopping wood, stunning days to remember. 14 hrs of constant snow, still snow in the garden today and a day with a -11C frost. Not a normal winter here at all. I still don't think myself or anyone from Scotland will be posting in summer the similar lines I hear here from Southern English members in winter. Something like - apart from the 'usual places' like the south east of England it's been dull, dreich and drab, rainy summer, one for the bin.

I do hope you get some snow I really do but just because it's s**** for you doesn't mean it isn't already a notable winter for others in the UK, synoptics and weather wise.

[mb018538]

6 hours ago, Gadje said:

Sorry to hear that for you. Hasn't been in lowland, I repeat - lowland Scotland. Not up a 'northern hill' either. Quite memorable number of frost days, working outside chopping wood, stunning days to remember. 14 hrs of constant snow, still snow in the garden today and a day with a -11C frost. Not a normal winter here at all. I still don't think myself or anyone from Scotland will be posting in summer the similar lines I hear here from Southern English members in winter. Something like - apart from the 'usual places' like the south east of England it's been dull, dreich and drab, rainy summer, one for the bin.

I do hope you get some snow I really do but just because it's s**** for you doesn't mean it isn't already a notable winter for others in the UK, synoptics and weather wise.

That’s true, but you have the winter benefit of being in Scotland and having some elevation to help too. The majority of the UK live at little to no elevation, and in the south too. So if they don’t see anything, that’s what you’ll hear I’m afraid

Looking more like another winter of false hopes and dawns. Back in the autumn we heard the usual ‘it’ll be a belter this year’ posts, and we’ve also had an SSW that hasn’t delivered anything yet too. People who want cold winter weather just need to leave the UK, cos this little island just isn’t the place to get it.

[Kentish Man]

What a load of crap output on all of this morning's models for the southern half of the country. At least we'll be spared the worst of the flooding before the mild sets in from next week. And we might get a couple of frosts next weekend lol.  So much for SSW.  

[cobbett]

Yep pretty grim down south 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Meanwhile over on the model discussion thread, winter still appears to be obligatory "ten days away".

 

*rinse and repeat*

[DanDorsetUK]

Well what a complete and utter farse it's all been this winter. MANY lessons learnt for me this year so much so I've decided never to look at another model run for the rest of my life. Time is better spent doing more worthwhile pratical things. Computer generated weather is a complete and utter waist of many many hours.

I'll be the first to admit I also got caught up in the hysteria at the start of Christmas with the historic winter posts being churned out. Then the SSW induced hysteria that once again has done absolutely nothing. Never in all my life have I wasted so much time looking at pointless day 10 charts which as always come to nothing!

Take it from me for anyone wanting to join the 10 day weather hunt. DONT! Don't allow yourselves to ever get cought up in the hype.

Spend your limited time you have doing more important things and stick to putting your heads out the window to check the weather.

Best of luck to everyone for the future! Signing off.

[Kentish Man]

36 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Meanwhile over on the model discussion thread, winter still appears to be obligatory "ten days away".

 

*rinse and repeat*

Yes that's 10 days ago when it did get a bit chilly. Quite likely now we'll end up after an average December with only slightly below average temperatures in January in the southern half of the UK and I now have a suspicion Feb will be a warm one with La Nina doing its late winter worst.. 

Edit Bartlett alert on GFS at t+300. Time to go home.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Kentish Man

[turkishfella]

I really fed up with this atlantic, always throws those cold airs away

[Flake news]

For all the hype of SSWs and northern blocking, this week's rain could end up being the only significant weather event of the winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, apophenia said:

For all the hype of SSWs and northern blocking, this week's rain could end up being the only significant weather event of the winter.

Not if you live in the SE? wherever you are

[SLEETY]

29 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

Yes that's 10 days ago when it did get a bit chilly. Quite likely now we'll end up after an average December with only slightly below average temperatures in January in the southern half of the UK and I now have a suspicion Feb will be a warm one with La Nina doing its late winter worst.. 

Edit Bartlett alert on GFS at t+300. Time to go home.

 

Think lesson to be learned is stick to ouput upto 144 hours,anything beyond that is liable for big changes,whatever  it shows,models still arent able to go beyond 5 or 6 days ahead with much accuracy.

Writing off the rest of the winter,because of what models are showing 10 or more days aways like  you are doing in here is rather pointless as they wont verify like that anyway.

Yesterday at 300 hours it had bitter easterlies heading towards UK!

Edited January 18, 2021 by SLEETY

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Think lesson to be learned is stick to ouput upto 144 hours,anything beyond that is liable for big changes,whatever  it shows,models still arent able to go beyond 5 or 6 days ahead with much accuracy.

Writing off the rest of the winter,because of what models are showing 10 or more days like  you are doing in here is rather pointless as they wont verify like that anyway.

Iberian heights and stalled LP systems = U.K. winter killer

I think we are looking at least February now for any sustained cold, time is fast running out for people further south especially, I live on the south coast and tho of course lying snow definitely happens in February and march, it’s very rare to get sustained snow on the ground due to the suns strength.

 

[Kentish Man]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Think lesson to be learned is stick to ouput upto 144 hours,anything beyond that is liable for big changes,whatever  it shows,models still arent able to go beyond 5 or 6 days ahead with much accuracy.

Writing off the rest of the winter,because of what models are showing 10 or more days aways like  you are doing in here is rather pointless as they wont verify like that anyway.

Yesterday at 300 hours it had bitter easterlies heading towards UK!

I've been on this site long enough to rrealise that will not be the precise chart that verifies but I look for trends and the trends aren't good on any of the models unless you can see something I can't.

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Iberian heights and stalled LP systems = U.K. winter killer

I think we are looking at least February now for any sustained cold, time is fast running out for people further south especially, I live on the south coast and tho of course lying snow definitely happens in February and march, it’s very rare to get sustained snow on the ground due to the suns strength.

 

we got lying snow in mid-march 2013 remember? it lasted long enough to go sledging on the Downs that day.

I would take one day even of lying snow,bit different from what some posters were expecting frrom this winter though!

 

[KTtom]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Iberian heights and stalled LP systems = U.K. winter killer

I think we are looking at least February now for any sustained cold, time is fast running out for people further south especially, I live on the south coast and tho of course lying snow definitely happens in February and march, it’s very rare to get sustained snow on the ground due to the suns strength.

 

Yes, a poor trend, and quite a large one at that for next week, much milder and no southern tracking lows....mind you dont tell them that over there, i nearly got shot! Mentioning day 7 charts are only acceptable if they show cold!

[SLEETY]

10 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

I've been on this site long enough to rrealise that will not be the precise chart that verifies but I look for trends and the trends aren't good on any of the models unless you can see something I can't.

Ecm and gfs long range charts rarely verify as they flip-flop every run,so their are no trends 

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by SLEETY

[SLEETY]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yes, a poor trend, and quite a large one at that for next week, much milder and no southern tracking lows....mind you dont tell them that over there, i nearly got shot! Mentioning day 7 charts are only acceptable if they show cold!

Well met going for much colder weather even here at end of the week so you must be looking at other charts if you think its saying very mild for whole of this week

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Wet and windy throughout Wednesday, with gales in places. Colder and blustery for a time into Thursday, ahead of a drier, less windy, but much colder end to the week.

[Weathizard]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

we got lying snow in mid-march 2013 remember? it lasted long enough to go sledging on the Downs that day.

I would take one day even of lying snow,bit different from what some posters were expecting frrom this winter though!

 

Yes, but that’s an exceptional rarity due to the depth of the cold we had, that was a once in 25 years type March.

I’ve seen snow melt on an ice day in February due to the sun strength.

I think frustrations are understandable this winter to be honest, sometimes this place can be a hell hole of people expecting too much but this winter we really have been promised a lot and in actuality we’ve had one of the worst winters I can remember down here, endless deluges of rain, at this point bugger the snow I’d take it staying dry for a day  

[Kentish Man]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well met going for much colder weather even here at end of the week so you must be looking at other charts if you think its saying very mild for whole of this week

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Wet and windy throughout Wednesday, with gales in places. Colder and blustery for a time into Thursday, ahead of a drier, less windy, but much colder end to the week.

5C maximums as forecast on the GFS for Saturday don't cut it in my book. Chilly yes but not genuinely cold. The best you can say about this January is that it won't be as mild as in 2020 but it's still another let down after the model nirvana we saw at one point.

[Weathizard]

I was thinking as well, much as I absolutely love snow and extended cold, perhaps this winter is the one winter I can accept  that a deep freeze is not what we want, it would probably cause issues for the vaccine deliveries. That’s the one crumb of comfort from a snowless winter I guess, no disruption of vaccination supplies.

[KTtom]

35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well met going for much colder weather even here at end of the week so you must be looking at other charts if you think its saying very mild for whole of this week

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Wet and windy throughout Wednesday, with gales in places. Colder and blustery for a time into Thursday, ahead of a drier, less windy, but much colder end to the week.

Next week mate.

[SLEETY]

yeah let

Just now, KTtom said:

Next week mate.

well gfs op was one of the mildest runs after this week,so im not giving up on this frustrating winter yet..Still some cold runs in their

 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Say hello to uncle Bartlett. Looks like an early spring coming up...