Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Snowman.]

31 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Even with crap uppers ECM 12z is quite wintry for northern half of country. What I would say there is something for someone.

 

From the perspective of someone in the SE, this is how I have viewed the winter so far.

[mulzy]

Mean EPS pretty underwhelming right through the medium and extended range. Clusters may give a glimmer of hope but heights to the south are a continuing issue.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Mean EPS pretty underwhelming right through the medium and extended range. Clusters may give a glimmer of hope but heights to the south are a continuing issue.

Yes, its all gone down the pan inside 15 hours, PV moving back over the pole several runs in a row and moving down the layers now into the mid strat, the window of opportunity is shortening, the large lady had put the TCP away but she's just limbering up now again im afraid for this winter.

[Bald Eagle]

16 minutes ago, BARRY said:

For the sanity of all on this forum we need an answer 

I find the best way is to stand outside... up to date answer straight away 

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, BARRY said:

For the sanity of all on this forum we need an answer 

There is never a definitive answer when it comes to the weather..if you are holding out for definitves you will be waiting a long time and probably go insane ! That’s what makes it interesting. Tomorrow we could be looking at charts showing record warm or record cold . If you want some reliability then just stick to reading the 2 day forecast on the meto site
 

back to the here and now...some massive temp differences. It’s not often a Cambridge is 7c colder than Birmingham in a mid Jan evening. Northampton is also colder than Buxton...@Kasim will be spitting feathers !

[cobbett]

London EPS mean temp for midday starts at 6.3c on 20th and plummets to 5.2c by the 27th.

At least Feb couldnt possibly be any worse than this month - I hope 

[Roger J Smith]

Is there a place other than the model thread where the Thursday snowfall potential and other aspects of the low's evolution are being discussed currently? All I see is a forecaster blog which I assume is not meant to be a discussion. 

In case there isn't any other place, maybe here would be good ...

it's too short range really to take up space in a model thread anyway ...

potential is good for a surprise snowfall event with this slider which is more of a dropper. 

Current analysis shows the low about to cut off from its trough over Northern Ireland. Track from there is likely to be s.s.e. across Wales, west Midlands into south central England and across the Channel into France. 

Colder air is lurking in northeast England and will be pulled into the circulation late tonight, turning sleet or cold rain into snow across much of northern England inland from coasts which may stay mostly rain (if precip shield is not pulled inland anyway). Some higher parts of Yorkshire and southeast Lancs could see 5-10 cm snowfalls. I don't think that part would qualify as a surprise though.

As the low continues south, it deepens and rapidly loses thickness contours, the ideal situation for crashing surface dew points. Temperatures are quite widely around 10 C on the warm side of the potential track, and around 5 C to the east of the track, but these will fall to more like 7 and 2 by morning and then the low will be circulating air of modified arctic characteristics which could allow rain to turn to sleet and then snow across the Midlands and south central England. It's likely to stay all rain in London, lower elevations of the southeast, and turn to wet snow on higher elevations like the Downs. 

There may be some surprise 3-7 cm snowfalls from about B'ham-Coventry south to Hampshire out of this system. Stay tuned. 

(mods move this or prompt a dedicated thread, I'm not sure which forum it should go to if that's the case)

[Bartlett High]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Seems like chaos theory gone mad at the moment.

We really have no clue what the next run will produce.

I personally think that's a good thing as almost anything can happen and no-one knows what!.....this time next week we could be knee deep in the white stuff.

[Cloud 10]

Does anyone have a link to the latest met office 10 day video?

 

Trying to navigate the meto website seems to anger me.

 

Never mind,found it.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Cloud 10

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

I would say most folk are looking for a decent cold snowy spell where the snow lasts.

The slushy mess forecast for the next few days will melt quickly away from higher ground and in the North.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I would say most folk are looking for a decent cold snowy spell where the snow lasts.

The slushy mess forecast for the next few days will melt quickly away from higher ground and in the North.

I understand that,

some need to lower expectations - this is the UK weather we are talking about!

also as someone who lives in Essex, I didn’t see any flakes during the most recent cold spell,

so I’m hoping for something better of course and I have potential to see some tomorrow and Saturday so that’s all focus on for now

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

If the models were confident of a good show dumping, I think people would focus on that. But for a lot of people, it’s looking marginal. Even the hi res models don’t look too good for those in the south.

Unfortunately that’s normal for those in the south,

they mainly only benefit from easterlies or battleground type scenarios if lucky.

[StormyLincs]

I’m detecting the awful stench of desperation over on the MOD thread tonight, especially after the awful 18z. I think we have to give ourselves a reality check and accept it for what it is....A bust!  I’d love to find a a snowy and cold outlook somewhere out there but it seems to have albeit gone now. I’m more concerned about the amount of rain that could fall in the coming weeks if those charts came to fruition.

[Vikos]

 

[Hotspur62]

The models seem to be playing out so many options atm and there is very little consistency from run to run,alot to do with the SSW .This will continue to occur for the next few days,if not longer as the second warming currently is happening.We have to remember an SSW gives us approximately a 70% chance of getting a cold spell a la 2018,but it is not a given.In normal times models are pretty good upto 144 but with what is happening atm honestly I urge people not to look past 96hours and even then that could be considered too long lol!!

I think 99% of people would love to see a nice covering of snow and some parts of the Uk have already seen a good few dumps of snow.Equally there are quite a large number more so in the South and South East who have yet to see a flake.Things are finely balanced currently and Alex Deakin gave a good 10 day forecast earlier today showing that the Met favour a cold spell with winds from north or even north east quadrant although a milder flow from sw is still a possibility if the trough stays to west of Uk instead of over or east of uk(favoured outcome atm).The odds are still in our favour of cold but like anything in life nothing in life is guaranteed apart from  taxes and snuffing it!!

Edited January 13, 2021 by Hotspur62

[edo]

Snowing at sea level here with modest uppers modest temp etc etc so whilst maybe not for the south many can look at tomorrow and Sat with some cautious optimism 

[E17boy]

This is not a game

this is model watching from hell

at the end mild or cold - one of you will get fired 

[Paul90]

It's all gone Pete Tong hasn't it? every Winter we get tantalising charts (apart from last Winter) only to have the rug pulled from under us, i'm not expecting any snow of note now for the rest of the Winter to be honest. As a mildie troll might say - "ah well it'll soon be Spring, the daffodils will soon be sprouting"

[Mark wheeler]

50 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not a great end to the day. And to think the 0z runs will likely be worse.

Oh dear I’ll better tune in to the 12z for the better run tomorrow.

[Bricriu]

So the theme of the winter continues, despite a northern hemisphere ripe with blocking, we just can't tap into a proper cold source. This is actually more frustrating than if we had a raging pv, at least then expectations would not be raised.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Bricriu

[syed2878]

43 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Nothing is ever nailed on. Pretty sure that snow wasn’t on the cards this weekend until today. We are clueless at the moment, so are the pros, and probably why the TV forecasters have been very reluctant to talk about next weeks outlook! 

 I must say dreadful output all round today where we going to get the cold from I no idea how ever I will hold slight hope on the wording from Mets extended outlook few days ago one or two posters were saying the cold spell is nailed on going by today is out but it’s nowhere near. The talk of snow weekend and even tomorrow it’s not going to be for low lying areas it will only be for the usual suspects Scotland North East England and places like that.  

[Roger J Smith]

Probably a good sign that the 12\ GFS held out more hope than the 18z at this range.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, YellowSnow said:

I’m detecting the awful stench of desperation over on the MOD thread tonight, especially after the awful 18z. I think we have to give ourselves a reality check and accept it for what it is....A bust!  I’d love to find a a snowy and cold outlook somewhere out there but it seems to have albeit gone now. I’m more concerned about the amount of rain that could fall in the coming weeks if those charts came to fruition.

I still think chances for a cold spell are pretty good but you’re right about the possible rainfall - definitely not needed at the moment.

[Roger J Smith]

The soundtrack of model watching ...

come on, let's go

oh not this again

that's okay, seen worse

really? 

oh yeah

hmm can that even happen in nature? 

the country would be shut down if that happens

this model's never right anyway

make up your mind

ten billion spent and this is what we get? 

no 

NOOOOOO 

oh okay

let's see 540 534 528 522 how did that loop around like that? I'm confused where's Scotland under all that?

darned pub run

gotta see the thread 

don't care what's happening there, I live here

oh well the Euro will sort it all out

darned Euro is a piece of junk

king my azz

that's not gonna happen

oh big surprise a dartboard low on day ten didn't see that coming

[PiscesStar]

8 hours ago, YellowSnow said:

I’m detecting the awful stench of desperation over on the MOD thread tonight, especially after the awful 18z. I think we have to give ourselves a reality check and accept it for what it is....A bust!  I’d love to find a a snowy and cold outlook somewhere out there but it seems to have albeit gone now. I’m more concerned about the amount of rain that could fall in the coming weeks if those charts came to fruition.

And they will.... Rain is a cert snow isn't