Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Have to say, it looks like there is going to be an awful lot of stuff falling from the skies....I’m watching this thread avidly to get an idea what everyone thinks the stuff will be

(we’ve already had one flood in Bedford.... could do with some white stuff! )

It will be mostly stuffed  toys and prams  falling from the sky!

I will get my coat!

Edited January 13, 2021 by fromey

[DJ Fart]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Para gives around 6 hours of snowfal for the midlands!!!!

Do you live in the Midlands mate?  You should have said!

[StormyLincs]

Just had some frozen rain pellets here. I guess that’s my snowfall for the winter.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

Do you live in the Midlands mate?  You should have said!

Yup leicester!!!!

[steveinsussex]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Yup leicester!!!!

Lol joke over your head

[Flake news]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

For some reason or other I never believed in this period coming up (this could still change but I doubt it) for further cold and snow (yes that word which I haven't even seen a sniff of so far) after the cold spell we've already experienced. Not many times since the Millennium have we had a cold spell followed by a milder blip and another cold spell - maybe just the cold winter of 2009/10 and 2012/13 comes to mind.

The models seem to be trending away from any real cold and looking at the ecm 0z this morning the UK might just experience some wintry stuff for the north or higher elevated locations this along way away from the first modelling from this potential spell that wanted to bring in frigid air from the north east.

If the modelling keeps going away from any cold in the next week it would be very interesting to hear from the likes of Marco P/Matt H/Judah Cohen etc. and others whom of late have been banging the SSW/Cold into NW Europe drum...what I'm currently seeing is underwhelming considering the background of the SSW coupling with the trop.

Would be a real dis-heartening winter in my opinion considering the lack of Atlantic depressions yet still nothing noteworthy, certainly in my location, and what would stick in mind most would be that complete dud easterly in January. 

No doubt there will be lots of overly-confident hindsight explanations along the lines of "well actually the MJO was unhelpful" (or heaven forbid, "widespread cold was always unlikely with that OPI".)  At the end of the day there's an interplay of a bewildering number of factors that are reinforcing or negating each other in complex ways that non-numerical techniques (and sometimes even numerical techniques) will never be able to resolve.

[Eagle Eye]

Okay so it's will it or won't it now. 

About 7 days out there is a relatively good chance that the models will keep flipping as to what thickness it is as that is hard to predict.However there is a relatively high chance that they have got where our air will most likely be coming from so the fact that on day 7 we are most likly getting easternly air is that because of the SSW with the Atlantic block this should allow cold air further north to sink down. 

Of course we don't need the thickness to be extremely low in an event like this it will most likely but assuming that it isn't, North Scandanavian Uppers as is the expected and most likely scenario at this range have very cold Uppers that they bring along with them typically with Beast from the East's they do bring about - 10 Uppers on a bad day. 

It does seem that by day 6 to 7 we will get the Easternly Flow and this brings the Low Thickness Dam and so depending on the Uppers we could get even at the coasts some pretty deep snow further into the Beast and most likely the Upeers will be in our favour. 

Uppers are very hard to predict how cold they will be so don't be discouragesd by Charts like this plus considering the dam further on despite the uppers temperatures are most likely going to be negative. 

 

[Northwest NI]

Always know when the models have taken a turn for the worse when lots of inspirational “have faith” type posts appear. 

[GSP]

Went to bed last night thinking in the medium term would we wake up to purple temps and nirvana, or the form horse milder temps and so at the moment the latter is on course.

With the current situation, there’s a bit of relief if that latter comes true. What we don’t need know is disruption to vaccine supply lines, so any problem weather of this nature can wait another year for me.

Also having two working from home since March basically, my electric and other bills are going through the roof. A bit of relief from heating will be enough, although it’s of course staying on.

[B87]

I've never experienced such a dull January before. We currently have 8 hours of sun nearly at the half-way stage! The record is 25.3 hours from January 1996, and that looks like being beaten easily with no sun in the forecast.

[StormyLincs]

32 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Always know when the models have taken a turn for the worse when lots of inspirational “have faith” type posts appear. 

“Have faith” ? I think I’ve just become an atheist. 

[Wimbledon88]

Just glad i dont mind dull wet and windy weather. Never disappointed. 

Yes, a good harsh cold snowy spell would be great. Put perhaps not just now. What with the numbers of people trying to get vaccinated and queuing up at hospitals etc. 

Cold freezing winter can wait till next winter when this is all over. Just my opinion mind. 

[Easton Luna Boys]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Output getting worse and worse. We could be looking month end into February now for deeper cold as opposed to the last third of the month.

Or Feb 19 all over again

When it comes to SSW be careful what you wish for! 

[Andy Bown]

Let’s face it we all know the bitter charts will verify into March! 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Oh well we've still got the end of January and still the whole of February to get something decent. Not forgetting most if not all of March too ( a bit late for some people's taste I know, but I'd take a March 2013 or 2018 every year if I could, been as those two months were two of the best 'Winter' months of the last decade).

Speaking of February though if anything this is the one Winter month we haven't had appreciably below average for the longest, so maybe this year will be its turn.

Not that I've got too much to complain about this Winter so far, having had both falling and lying snow already. But it's a big dump of powder snow with big snowdrifts I would like most of all. 

Hopefully the models will start throwing out more promising charts again soon.

[snowspotter]

To be honest I’ve given looking at this site a miss for three or four days . Just checking my phone for updates on the basic 10 days it generates to get an idea when it looks remotely interesting. It’s actually quite pleasant ignoring all the rubbish posted on the mod thread . I am still working on the basis that quite frankly the south east is set for a load of crud for the next 10 days . Wake me up if things change . I’m sticking my neck out here that winter is not going to occur down here 

[B87]

7 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

 I’m sticking my neck out here that winter is not going to occur down here 

Heathrow average max and min so far this month: 5.0c/1.3c. That's colder than December 1995, a very wintry month. I'm sure Reigate has been a bit cooler, being in the hills.

Edited January 13, 2021 by B87

[Freeze]

I've decided to face facts and learning to enjoy 10c and drizzle, once you do that you'll feel much better and less disappointed.

[Scandinavian High.]

I’m suspecting upgrades with models later met office updated there website no changes really chances of cold anywhere in uk there expecting north easterly next week colder weather from Scandinavia.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[snowspotter]

Just now, B87 said:

Heathrow average max and min so far this month: 5.0c/1.3c. That's colder than December 1995, a very wintry month.

Haha yeah right . ‘A very wintry month’ I’d say a very tedious month . I’m about 20 miles from Heathrow and I’ve seen a few struggling frosts and no snow at all. We’re now in mid January. It’s hardly 1991/1987 or 1979 is it ? 

[snowspotter]

4 minutes ago, B87 said:

Heathrow average max and min so far this month: 5.0c/1.3c. That's colder than December 1995, a very wintry month. I'm sure Reigate has been a bit cooler, being in the hills.

My altitude is under 300 feet . There was some transient snow on the top of the downs . All we’re getting is cold rain . Quite frankly I’d rather have warm rain

[B87]

9 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Haha yeah right . ‘A very wintry month’ I’d say a very tedious month . I’m about 20 miles from Heathrow and I’ve seen a few struggling frosts and no snow at all. We’re now in mid January. It’s hardly 1991/1987 or 1979 is it ? 

It's less than 1c warmer than Feb 1991. January 1987 had a mean of 1.3c in London, 4c below average. That's like complaining because July isn't warmer than 2006 or 2018.

What I want more than anything is to see some normal duration of sun again. October 2020 was the dullest on record, and since then we seem to have become stuck in almost constant extreme cloudiness relative to average. January will almost certainly set a new record. Maybe we will get a sunny February as there have been a few in recent years; 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2019.

Edited January 13, 2021 by B87

[Bermuda High]

The reality is, anyone who's been reading the meto further outlooks wont be disappointed, because its never gone for UK wide deep cold or a "beast from the east" and still doesn't.

Until it does, expect to continually disappointed  , thats excluding the North East, the only place that will see snow for now.

 

 

 

[snowspotter]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

It's less than 1c warmer than Feb 1991. January 1987 had a mean of 1.3c in London, 4c below average. That's like complaining because July isn't warmer than 2006 or 2018.

What I want more than anything is to see some normal duration of sun again. October 2020 was the dullest on record, and since then we seem to have become stuck in almost constant extreme cloudiness relative to average. January will almost certainly set a new record.

No my friend : not sure how old your memory is but February 1991 was a mild month just with a monster easterly sandwiched in it . A real winter spell. A whole months of average or below by 1c just won’t do anything . Averages don’t define snow events . Wouldn’t you rather have two weeks mild and sunny and 2 weeks of a beast from the east and an average overall. Or a below average same every day for a month with no snow . That’s what I’m saying 

[snowspotter]

Here’s my latest 10 dayer . How exciting