Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM is a very interesting run.  At the end we have the trigger for an atomic explosion.....and getting there is reasonable on the ECM run.  Now let’s get consistency 

 

BFTP

[Scott Ingham]

The ECM is a very intetesting run!

The warm blip on this run lasts 36 hours!

The wedge north of us has gained traction over the last 2 or 3 runs and the cold air east of us is only waiting on sharpening of the pattern to be edged closer to the isles!

Its all very battleground and very met office update esq!

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 12 z looking very interesting 240 hrs although it will change showing some serious cold

in Europe and high pressure building in the Atlantic.Already to tap into the real cold

to our east,first chart fo me showing some very good promise for cold lovers.

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

The ECM is a very intetesting run!

The warm blip on this run lasts 36 hours!

The wedge north of us has gained traction over the last 2 or 3 runs and the cold air east of us is only waiting on sharpening of the pattern to be edged closer to the isles!

Its all very battleground and very met office update esq!

I am excited for the EC scenarios later. Battledays around 20th.

[That ECM]

47 minutes ago, That ECM said:

What are people’s thoughts wrt the heights to the ne of the low above Scotland? Each run they seem to gain in strength. TIA

Guys, slow down with all your replies I can’t keep up Anyone got any thoughts?

[Winter Hill]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

No point looking beyond d7 atm as that is when the gfs and ecm ops diverge in terms of modelling of the Arctic high. That change sends each run in a different nh flows:

gfs>ecm>

I checked on the means for the same time and they each support their respective ops! Once that is resolved we can maybe see a path forward from there?

No point looking beyond d7 ?? 

bit ironic, when you will post a chart from the GFS @ T+ 360 and proclaim game over for any cold spell. 

[chris55]

19 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Interesting ending. 

If that’s not setting up for winter Armageddon then I give up , that is the most loaded chart I ever did see.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Guys, slow down with all your replies I can’t keep up Anyone got any thoughts?

Well if you look to the north the heights are getting stronger on each run  to the ne of that low near Scotland. Hope that helps

[Djdazzle]

Let's hope that the green shoots grow stronger over the next few runs.

[Snowjokes92]

Getting a 2013 feeling with these wedges popping up at short notice and can only see upgrade from here. Ecm 144 hrs not far from a snow fest given a few tweeks with uppers. 

[DavidS]

How key is the low to the south of the high in the mid Atlantic at 216.?  I’m sure a couple of weeks back people were commenting on a similar situation .

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by DavidS

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well if you look to the north the heights are getting stronger on each run  to the ne of that low near Scotland. Hope that helps

Ah Boris, repeating what someone else has already said thanks

 

My thoughts are that if that is stronger this helps the heights to the north. please repeat and agree. just to confirm I’m speaking with the prime minister.

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

No point looking beyond d7 ?? 

bit ironic, when you will post a chart from the GFS @ T+ 360 and proclaim game over for any cold spell. 

ecm apparently has better resolution in the strat so maybe we favour the ecm evolution. However, one will be right and one wrong, and then post that things may change so very uncertain?

Saying that, I am not sure where the ecm op goes post-d10, lows spawning off the US as the jet powers through that region:

d10 ecm US> 

[chris55]

30 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well that held up unfortunately.

Your missing the bigger picture. High pressure over Iberia is often the precursor to an easterly. 
 

Obviously you need the overall synoptic pattern to support this and going from the ECM tonight that support is available in spades. 
 

It’s far from a stagnant Zonal flow. And in this situation a transitory Iberian ridge is actually a good thing. 

[LRD]

25 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 has potential

Ha ha! And while we're at it, can I say that it's 'promising' too? I'd also go as far as to say 'a couple of tweaks and we'd be in business' and that 'the building blocks are in place' 

Joking aside, that is a really good chart. Chart of the day probably. Trouble is it's far, far away. The only real trend I can see is that polar heights look to be on the rise. Not an awful lot being programmed for us though - in terms of boom charts, that is

 

[northwestsnow]

Personally I think EC det has potential...

But it is but one run....

I hope we get an Easterly if only for the SE crew many of whom are yet to see snow.

Its hardly been Siberia here but we have had a few falls...

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Your missing the bigger picture. High pressure over Iberia is often the precursor to an easterly. 
 

Obviously you need the overall synoptic pattern to support this and going from the ECM tonight that support is available in spades. 
 

It’s far from a stagnant Zonal flow. And in this situation a transitory Iberian ridge is actually a good thing. 

This is true but I was commenting on the model at the time and `at the moment` it has come to fruition. Believe me, bigger pictures, been there as we all have, just commenting on now timeframe not FI hope Chris.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Your missing the bigger picture. High pressure over Iberia is often the precursor to an easterly. 
 

Obviously you need the overall synoptic pattern to support this and going from the ECM tonight that support is available in spades. 
 

It’s far from a stagnant Zonal flow. And in this situation a transitory Iberian ridge is actually a good thing. 

To be fair it's more often the precursor for a long spell of wind and rain and mild and zonal. I thought a UK high is more of a precursor to an E'ly. Or an Az High ridging NE to Western Scandinavia via the NW of the UK

[bluearmy]

The eps control has two sliders before T200 ...the day six feature across ne England on the ec op is across the sw of England on the control 

 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Personally I think EC det has potential...

But it is but one run....

I hope we get an Easterly if only for the SE crew many of whom are yet to see snow.

Its hardly been Siberia here but we have had a few falls...

We've just had an E'ly. It rained

[TSNWK]

Let’s just for arguments sake say that artic profiles are not the issue for us.. that the vortex is clearly being smashed and streached is also in our favour and at worse is uncertain.

we are now left with the riddle to  solve on Iberia heights.. the coldies anti christ... 

that is the theme for me today.. everything else is in fairness falling into place.... 

any thoughts, experience on what we need and at the  same time retain the positives we do have.. ?

Edited January 7, 2021 by TSNWK

[danm]

Just now, LRD said:

We've just had an E'ly. It rained

Yep but with the depth of cold showing on recent model runs out east, it would be all snow. Need rid of those Iberian heights first though. 

[Daniel*]

Latest NAO forecast if we were going zonal and unsettled you’d expect decent uptick to positive, but there is none and around mid month there’s a decent grouping going more negative maybe suggestive of what ECM 12z shows with mid Atlantic ridge. Which has been a frequent visitor, but this time we have much colder air to possibly tap into.

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Daniel*

[LRD]

Just now, danm said:

Yep but with the depth of cold showing on recent model runs out east, it would be all snow. Need rid of those Iberian heights first though. 

Yeah I was being a bit facetious. Apologies. Azores heights aren't necessarily a problem but, as you say, Iberian heights are a (big) problem

[Mike Poole]

My thoughts after the 12s are that we are so in the game, not in the next week or so, but after.  ECM T240 shows potential:

The GFS // a good run in the main, but doesn’t end on a cold pattern:

But it is of interest nonetheless, because it shows the trop vortex completely split - not on an axis favourable for us on this run, but this is, for me, evidence of a trop response to the SSW in two weeks.  Remember there was concern that the downwelling might be stalled before reaching the jet stream in the trop?  This run suggests strongly that won’t be the case, and I think those that were expecting the trop response earlier than about 2-3 weeks after the SSW were asking a bit much.  

GFS // T384 shows a west-based -NAO, which leads me to a question for you all.  The mere mention of a west-based -NAO seems to have some in here running for the holy water and crucifixes, a bit like mention of a Bartlett high.  With the latter it is a bit ridiculous because there has only been one recorded incidence of a Bartlett high to my knowledge (1988-89).  So the question is, when was the last west-based -NAO that actually happened?  I’m wondering if it was before my time model watching, or I’ve just forgotten it, or repressed the memory .  Thanks in advance. 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Mike Poole