Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[joggs]

Just now, radiohead said:

UKMO 144....No backtrack

Saving grace are the low uppers in the med thank God.

[weathercold]

UKMO/ECM have led the the way here, never in doubt when both singing from the same page. 

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I thik we will be looking slightly flatter come then or a day or two after and a snowy battleground period

This battleground period??

[Griff]

GFS vs P at 102

[Scott Ingham]

144 and we aint actually losing any cold its miles away.

Looks to me like that short wave over greenland could just have delayed things for a day or 3!

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I would probably give it a couple more suites, but frankly this is pretty awful luck.

Trough on the eastern seaboard and to our east. Where does the cold arctic air go? Yep straight on top of the Atlantic ridge, engages the low running over the top resulting in the low rapidly deepening with a strengthening jet to flatten the ridge.

.

Would normally be very dissapointed but can't be when have a good few days of snow potential coming up.

And the effects of the SSW I'm sure will give us a good late january into februrary! Still all to play for this winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

settle for this GFS 12Z!

[snowangel32]

Gfs collapses around the 8th Jan. We need that SSW to come into play now I fear. But from a imby perspective its been a nice week or so with Snow and many frosts. Sure this will just be a mild blip before the SSW kicks in. Writing was always on the wall when the UKMO, ECM and Icon all backtracked away from the Greenland high scenario shame as it could of been epic.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

144 and we aint actually losing any cold its miles away.

Looks to me like that short wave over greenland could just have delayed things for a day or 3!

A bit more stubborn than I would have guessed watching it, any more surprises after I wonder  

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

settle for this GFS 12Z!

For the north west and north Wales there’s a bit but for most it’s a big downgrade. See below 06z Vs 12z snow depth by the weekend 

[Met4Cast]

And there it is. 

Kicking and screaming the GFS finally joins the UKMO and ECM in collapsing the high towards the UK. 

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO +144h is better than this morning IMO.

More of a low near Iberia, heights building over Scandi and it has many differences in North America compared to 0Z.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Griff said:

A bit more stubborn than I would have guessed watching it, any more surprises after I wonder  

I dont think we will turn mild. Its looking more like a reshuffling of the deck due to the Southern Greenland shortwave. We know obviously we are forecast to stay cold after this so just a relaxation and go again towards the end end of the month when we will get a better imprint from the strat. O still feel we will get snowy surprises from a low in this period

[Fozfoster]

yes please and on second bottle

Edited January 3, 2021 by Fozfoster

[DEYS(Kent)]

Beautifully poised for the middle and last third of January..

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This battleground period??

If it turns out like that come 0 hours

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

yes please

that the 6z

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

yes please and on second bottle

old one that! 12Z gives us less snow than 06Z

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

yes please

I wish , but we will see , down the road from you so hopefully what you get follows on to me .........whoops 6z

Edited January 3, 2021 by MJB

[Djdazzle]

Well, we were told by some that the one thing that won’t be happening is any Atlantic influence - hmmmmm!

Things may change, but it’s looking like a below average first half of January - but nothing exceptional like we were led to believe by some.

The weather is a great leveller to those who make bold claims, no matter how good the signals look!

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

[NewEra21]

We might be losing the dreamy charts, but overall it's still staying cold. It's not as bad as it could be!

[Daniel*]

The UKMO it’s hard to tell what next, the ridge is toppling but there’s still amplification coming out eastern USA/Canada that Newfoundland low is a pest, but we all know how poorly models are with these. Perhaps to what we could have experienced it’s a big let down, but normality returning I’m not seeing it. I still think this isn’t totally resolved and in event it does turn milder, judging by EPS it looks a temporary affair which reduces west based -NAO trend. The amplification isn’t disappearing it may flatten out, but there’s still a lot to watch. Things are more uncertain than usual in short term given we have a major SSW imminent. 

[SMU]

UKMO retains a much colder feed at 144.

-6c over Eng & -8c just to the East.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Steve Murr

[V for Very Cold]

I’m confused (no change there)..... throughout the afternoon it’s been mentioned that FI is about T108, now we’re looking after that, it’s mainly despondency and hope casting!

the models up to T90 aren’t shabby and gives us plenty of flip flopping time to see a strong direction

Finally, could I ask people to explain their ones lines when they post a chart? Much appreciated 

Edited January 3, 2021 by V for Very Cold
Typo

[Mr snowman 2018]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

For the north west and north Wales there’s a bit but for most it’s a big downgrade. See below 06z Vs 12z snow depth by the weekend 

You also have to remember the gfs is very low resolution you’ll have to go to the higher resolution