Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS not dropping it's snow for Friday, even London makes it into the mix this time... Looks overdone, but will check the hi Res later.

 

That’s looking good

GFS has been keen on some ppn over England/Wales in some form for days now. 
 

Let’s hope it’s got this one correct.

 

 

 

[Griff]

GFS vs GFSP at 108

 

[Griff]

Spoilers, I'll have the para please... 

 

[ICE COLD]

T120 looks like the icon on the gfs // 

[Mike Poole]

GFS and GFS // at T120 and the difference is frankly laughable!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Closer to the here and now,and the ECM 3 day hi resolution pointing to some snowfall over the coming 2 days..could be a fair bit in the NW...this extends Southwards during Friday..Will know doubt be a radar watching day.

 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T120 looks like the icon on the gfs // 

Typical the para is stuck at T126 . Must be the trump riots

[Mike Poole]

Ok so the GFS not a good run locally but it does develop the arctic high T192:

One thing we don’t want while all the uncertainty due to the SSW goes on is for the trop vortex to regroup and the arctic high should prevent that and keep it in its dismembered state.  This new arctic high is almost certainly due to the SSW, I would suggest.  

Edited January 6, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Ok so the GFS not a good run locally but it does develop the arctic high T192:

One thing we don’t want while all the uncertainty due to the SSW goes on is for the trop vortex to regroup and the arctic high should prevent that and keep it in its dismembered state.  This new arctic high is almost certainly due to the SSW, I would suggest.  

Prospects in FI? 

[Battleground Snow]

Interestingly the Harmonie increases the precipitation too, not to the level of the GFS though

 

[ICE COLD]

We’re on the move looking good at T132 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Ok so the GFS not a good run locally but it does develop the arctic high T192:

One thing we don’t want while all the uncertainty due to the SSW goes on is for the trop vortex to regroup and the arctic high should prevent that and keep it in its dismembered state.  This new arctic high is almost certainly due to the SSW, I would suggest.  

There is a very little chance of that Vortex regrouping...there is a secondary warming due in the next few days and this will know doubt play even more havoc on all the models getting to grips with whats going on.

[Griff]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

We’re on the move looking good at T132 

Going up or toppling?  

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Prospects in FI? 

Maybe, but this run has introduced high heights to the south and southeast of us, so I don’t think it is a good run.  We need a trough UK east into Europe.  

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Maybe, but this run has introduced high heights to the south and southeast of us, so I don’t think it is a good run.  We need a trough UK east into Europe.  

Could be worse, not great

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Going up or toppling?  

The first one is always destined to fail... It's the next one which then makes a Iceland scandi wedge around 200 we are looking out for

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The first one is always destined to fail... It's the next one which then makes a Iceland scandi wedge around 200 we are looking out for

Almost certainly but vortex starting to look a bit ragged... 

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T144 has more interest

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

GFS // T144 has more interest

Yes, and plenty of gaps in between, I think from tomorrow there will be a lot of interest (usual caveats of equal opportunities for disappointments)... 

Getting interesting. 

[Griff]

What's the latest ao and nao? Must be looking more negative again rather than trending back up? 

[feb1991blizzard]

18z *could* end up a stonker, very cold air could be sweeping in from the East in another 100 hours.

[Nick F]

18z GFSP looking more amplified ,,, T+204, carrying on the 12z PARA better look

[Griff]

Just now, Nick F said:

18z GFSP looking more amplified ,,, T+204, carrying on the 12z PARA better look

Yeap, that's been the trend, gfs not a million miles apart. 

[Notty]

2 hours ago, Snowmut said:

One thing I do know from years of  looking at these charts is when it starts showing deep cold for the yanks it very rarely is wrong and the trouble is when they're in the freezer we're in the cooker!

... but, my late relatives used to say, "if the Yanks get the cold we get it two weeks later"

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nick F said:

18z GFSP looking more amplified ,,, T+204, carrying on the 12z PARA better look

I think the GFS 18z will actually end up trumping it - spectacularly.