Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Is he not saying theyve changed for the better tho mushy if you read his first line

I dont get that tbh, imho they havnt changed in favour of deep cold, maybe disappointingly. 

Theres no proper cold spell on those charts for the next two weeks at least. 

 

Maybe the SSW will play against a uk cold spell. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters at T192-T240, and at this point I’m interested not so much to the north, there is little driving the Atlantic so there is some sort of blocking there on all, but to the south both UK and into Europe - where we want a trough not ridge.  Chart with scribbles:

I’m making it 31/51 favourable going forward from here...with cluster 2 looking most favourable.  So the uncertainty remains, all to play for.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

I dont get that tbh, imho they havnt changed in favour of deep cold, maybe disappointingly. 

Theres no proper cold spell on those charts for the next two weeks at least. 

 

Maybe the SSW will play against a uk cold spell. 

So what is he trying to say?

Im not an expert but the 8/14 looked like tweaks away from an omega block

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

So what is he trying to say?

Im not an expert but the 8/14 looked like tweaks away from an omega block

An omega block is only good for cold if its far enough to our west, if the high is over us then its curtains for a proper cold... surely.. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by mushymanrob

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I dont get that tbh, imho they havnt changed in favour of deep cold, maybe disappointingly. 

Theres no proper cold spell on those charts for the next two weeks at least. 

 

Maybe the SSW will play against a uk cold spell. 

That's not really correct though is it ? Yes the OPs don't show true cold but the GEFS has several going quite low , that's where the focus needs to be in the ENS  ( GEFS )

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. Finally got some sun today after two days of rain and drizzle here in NE London. What a horrible experience having an Easterly but no snow.

Anyway back to the models and the topics of today. To be honest I am just so fed up with hearing so much about this SSW and what impacts this may have on our weather. To be honest at this moment of time I think it is far too early to make any assumptions on its impact this time round.  There is so much going on at the moment and small changes are happening at short notice that it's hard to pinpoint how this is going to impact our weather. So here is what I think about going forward

...Our cold pattern will break sometime next week and we will probably have milder temperatures than what we have been used to over these past two weeks.

what happens after this big ????

but possibly high pressure slips north and opens gates to cold again .... or high pressure stays bang over us and it's stays dry .... or we continue on the mild side with unsettled periods of rain.

this is an assumption I am no expert.

now impacts of SSW 

... we get high pressure north and bitterly cold winds push in with high chance of significant snow

....we have negative impacts from the SSW and we stay unusually mild no cold.

or

.... we get a moderate impact with some cold and snow chances but no bitter sustained cold

The above is my thoughts and possible outcomes so we should just about be ready to accept the above

Finally if we don't get our cold does it mean winter is over. I would say certainly not we still have more than 2 months left so anything can happen. Even if it goes mild for two or three weeks there will still be just time to catch a good snowfall and I am sure having this than nothing will be better to accrept.

So there is my overview which now brings me back to the point  where I started we don't know where we will be in 10 days time so my coldie friends be patient and don't get dishearted time is still with us. Myself as much as you all is craving for snow but it's the weather. We can only wait and hope that something will come before winters end.

stay safe all and your families

kind regards

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

An omega block is only good for cold if its far enough to our west, if the high is over us then its curtains for a proper cold... surely.. 

On the 6-10 yeah but movement on the 8-14 look like heights are pushing further north out of the UK with north easterly air from scandi bumping into air from the atlantic??

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

So what is he trying to say?

Im not an expert but the 8/14 looked like tweaks away from an omega bloc

This morning John posted that he saw no deep cold for at least the next two week and possibly beyond. The updated 6-14 has shot a hole (his words not mine) in that prediction

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

You think? 

Have you seen the 8-14?

Looks like signs of an omega block starting

Yes i  do, still above average heights to the south, trough too far East to be a constant feature in our weather other than fleeting glimpses, its a 6 day average so you couldn't rule out a battleground setup at some point, no change in my forecast as i said that this morning towards end week 2, note possible though not definitively.

Edited January 6, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[TSNWK]

18 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

"Sure kicks a hole in my morning prediction. I think he means opposite

Well. I do too  for John to pop in during the evening and update on the 500s which by their nature are reasonable stable simply says to me how much uncertainty there is right now.. personally I love it and is great virtual distraction...

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters post day 10, and there are just two:

The first (27 members) is the one we want, although the final chart looks a bit suspect.  The second one would not lead to sustained cold.  

I think we need to wait a few more days before the pathway becomes illuminated again after the confusion shown in the models vis-a-vis the SSW.  

 

[That ECM]

@Tamara thank you for your post. Interesting read although much is above me TBH. Therefore I can’t agree or disagree with a lot of it but I most definitely can agree with your last paragraph which suggests to keep an open mind as many options are possible. In this day and age where we can get answer by just searching the net we can’t get an answer on the 6th of jan what the weather will be like in the latter part of Jan especially when so much is going on.  
 

This is why imo people are scrambling for direction especially as most are nuts about snow. The fact is we will have to wait and see and whilst some will punt cold and some will punt mild and which ever it is will claim victory imo it will be more luck than anything. When John, Tamara and others are unsure then it says to me watch the unfolding output in the days to come. 

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

On the 6-10 yeah but movement on the 8-14 look like heights are pushing further north out of the UK with north easterly air from scandi bumping into air from the atlantic??

Possibly, but that progress isnt as marked as i hoped considering yesterdays.. 

 

On mobile now so cant access previous charts to compare. 

[mushymanrob]

12 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's not really correct though is it ? Yes the OPs don't show true cold but the GEFS has several going quite low , that's where the focus needs to be in the ENS  ( GEFS )

Isnt it? Not for the uk there isnt. 

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i  do, still above average heights to the south, trough too far East to be a constant feature in our weather other than fleeting glimpses, its a 6 day average so you couldn't rule out a battleground setup at some point, no change in my forecast as i said that this morning towards end week 2, note possible though not definitively.

The nature of them open lines suggest to me its a couple of days away from them heights to the south being pushed north they dont look stable and compared to the 6/10 you can see this movement and weakening of the uk/iberian high.

Id say in 3 days time these wouldnt show

[damianslaw]

Very short term - staying cold, sharp frosts, snowfall for some. Into next week, the models continue to show a change as we cut off the cold northerly flow, and feel the presence of the azores high. The flow becoming westerly, with much more cloud and rain rather than snow away from high ground.  the jet looks ragged and rather weak though, so it looks like frontal attacks will brush and arc around the azores high.

All the while further changes in the arctic profile, many models showing arctic heights building and energy in the PV transferred to NW Russia/NE Scandi allowing a cold trough to anchor down through eastern europe, first time this season - a possible reaction to the SSW?

Good chance we will see heights build to the west of the trough - the cold wedge as some may call it. All eyes then on developments upstream over NE USA seaboard, amplification here would be the pattern changer, the azores high would easily link with the wedge and we are then looking at backdoor cold from the east. Less amplification and we maintain the status quo with azores high sat to our SW.

I'm seeing a battle taking place between the La Nina base state which is conducive to azores high sat to our SW and a flow riding over it from the NW, and events taking place in the stratosphere combined with tropical forcing..so far La Nina has lost the battle..

[Battleground Snow]

Icon quite a change from its 12z run here.

But my interest in the 18z's is the para after 168 tonight

 

[MJB]

44 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Isnt it? Not for the uk there isnt. 

? Have you looked at the GEFS , clearly not 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary remark removed

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon quite a change from its 12z run here.

But my interest in the 18z's is the para after 168 tonight

 

That’s more than quiet a change it’s huge for 120 range... icon or not it’s a big change for something at sort notice..

It is icon so that’s a shame.. be nice to see a similar move on this evenings 18z

[icykev]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon quite a change from its 12z run here.

But my interest in the 18z's is the para after 168 tonight

 

Hoping the para does lead the way, has been trending very similar charts recently

[Jason T]

18 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

This morning John posted that he saw no deep cold for at least the next two week and possibly beyond. The updated 6-14 has shot a hole (his words not mine) in that prediction

Exactly, The initial start of the SSW and the break off from the polar v split can take at least 2 weeks for us to begin to see any effects, After all it is only the 6th of January and two weeks will take us pretty much to the final third. Admittedly some state SSW to early, but is it ??? We all pretty much know when this event happens model T runs can be pretty much all over the place trying to figure out what actually will be the case, If I am correct when an SSW event begins data for some reason comes through from the Trop. Plenty of more Winter to  go and based on current sudden event very interesting model viewing to come, Yes some shock horrors short term, but then again some eye candy as well, I believe further down the line, hopefully sooner.

[TSNWK]

Is something a foot i ponder.. 

12z ECM also had more wedgey changes in the 120 / 144 range.

18z ICon big more towards wedging at 120.

John popping in with an evening update on the 500s

uncertainly is today’s trend.. is my view.. 

Oh come on 18z it’s been a week or so now, any chance of  a wacky pub run for us please

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by TSNWK

[mushymanrob]

21 minutes ago, MJB said:

? Have you looked at the GEFS , clearly not 

 We were talking about the noaa 8-14 day charts.. nowt else... 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary remark removed in quote box

[Battleground Snow]

GFS not dropping it's snow for Friday, even London makes it into the mix this time... Looks overdone, but will check the hi Res later.

 

[Mike Poole]

35 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon quite a change from its 12z run here.

But my interest in the 18z's is the para after 168 tonight

 

That’s a big change at that range (T120)!  

Re the upcoming closed-pub run, i would also be looking at any arctic high that develops, and keep an eye on the south to south east into Europe, we definitely want a trough there!

Edited January 6, 2021 by Mike Poole