Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

The jet profile says that it is going to be tough with the Pacific region driving the upstream flow:

We have a split flow rejoining around d8 off the esb, then another stream pumping up the jet and building that expected zonal barrage for d8 onwards. The force is strong, sorry block, and it does hold back the onslaught, however it is going to be tough to build sustainable heights in the Atlantic region till the La Nina uptick falls. Maybe then we will see further westerly slowdowns and the ridge/trough design we are expecting? Wedges are fine but really need those yellows/oranges to get a lot further north.

The new improved (ecm guided) parallel gfs has not been performing well at d10 on the 12z of late and is bottom of the class (smaller sample for some reason from the P):

The much maligned GFS top of the class! I expect that is partly due to the propensity for ecm and gfsP to blow up heights in these setups?

But the eyecandi is keeping me going

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Griff

[Methuselah]

Well the Atlantic looks about as flat a Mt. Fuji?

    

[Battleground Snow]

The GFS operational is thinking about it at 342... I hope the para can get there faster.

Edit: another huge warming at this time also

Edited January 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[DavidS]

FI GFS shows ‘potential’

[IDO]

Just now, Griff said:

But the eyecandi is keeping me going

 

Yes, you are our resident expert on the parallel!

The gfs op (and gefs) may be wrong in fantasy land, but they are consistent with the three trough pattern:

With the uk in no-mans-land. This signal looks the call at the moment?

 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, you are our resident expert on the parallel!

The gfs op (and gefs) may be wrong in fantasy land, but they are consistent with the three trough pattern:

With the uk in no-mans-land. This signal looks the call at the moment?

 

Entirely based on my confirmation bias and doing it for a distraction in rather unpleasant times

Just for fun. 

[Mucka]

We are seeing the split modelled ever more consistently but so far it is a case of close but no cigar.

So unless we get fairly big corrections West we will need to maintain some amplification out to the final 3rd of Jan.

If we can get that then we should be in business for some serious cold from the NE fed in by a deep Scandi trough.

TWT

[Purga]

Knife edge stuff !!

[Harsh Climate]

How many people would take this  FI but GFS now toying with deep cold into scandinavia/eastern europe late january.

If we can't get brutal cold over UK charts, this has to be next best thing.

[Mucka]

2 out of 32, I guess it is a start.

[XtremeUKWeather]

honestly im just laughing HAHAHAAHH

[Methuselah]

It's all building up to what'll be a fraught time, for the teddies!

    

[Battleground Snow]

Going to be another incredibly close call on the para at 258... I think we might get it this time.

Me and @Griff have been somewhat obsessively watching the 240 time period on the para, would be good to count it down, but a very long way to go.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Notty]

GFS(P) 12z looking very interesting out in FI

[Kasim Awan]

Very mild upper air on GEM.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Going to be another incredibly close call on the para at 258... I think we might get it this time.

 

Great run in fi, Bank

[Tim Bland]

Not bad

[winterof79]

That will tie in with the METO Scandinavian cold

[Froze were the Days]

Can you imagine if that GFS 12z FI actually happened 330z> and it looked like we were that close to a trigger low advecting actual deep cold air west and all we got were a couple of shortwaves popping up (Norwegian Sea) and become a block rather than a trigger...yes the suicide rate would rapidly go up on the NW forum and there would be far less posting thereafter.

1% chance at this range of that scenario actually happening - that would really be a pee take by the weather gods. 

[Tim Bland]

Comparing 06z to 12z there is some consistency appearing from the GFSp...

[Snowman.]

Para is very close, the earlier chance has largely vanished due to phasing of our trigger shortwave not going cleanly it must be said, my hopes from yesterday for a pop up easterly have diminshed, ensembles are likely to be behind on this trend however so they may still be some good ones in there but I am not trying to be lured in by them. So I return to FI hoping something strikes there.

GFS goes for SSW Part 2: Electric Boogaloo 

Over the ECM, which has been rather flat and uninspiring over recent days bar that one run. But I remain hopeful that more chances are to come over the next few weeks.

 

[Anthony Burden]

GFS 12 z going for high pressure all next week,keep wondering if temperatures are going

to rise much in the south if hard frosts are on the agenda depending on clear skies of coarse.

Some hints from GFS of the high forming over the south.

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

That will tie in with the METO Scandinavian cold

Yes, and here comes a front into the southwest ready to collide with the cold air ....

Edited January 6, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Man With Beard]

GEFS mean T240 - definitely trending heights further NW, but will be of no use with that amount of high pressure to the south, you'd think

[Vikos]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not bad

 

 

For sure NOT BAD!