Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Latest Met Office 10-day talking about the SSWE and suggesting latest research for the upcoming warming is indicative of a greater chance of SW'lys for the UK! With La Nina it is no surprise that the early direction from the coupling puts the UK away from the cold. I suspect we will learn a bit more from this SSWE as it seems unusual?

 

Actually where did La Nina favouring a milder second half of winter come from? 

1995-96 had cold spells in December and late January, February

1955-56 had a very cold February

1975-76 was a mild winter overall but the coldest/wintry weather came during the second half 

2011-12 had that cold first half to February. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's going to be flat until after day 9, the positive is the Arctic high is stronger and drifting into our side of the hemisphere. We need to see if the GFS can send a ridge up to join it from the Atlantic sector to slice the trop vortex in 2 around day 10-12

That may be the case but I don't see anything on the ensembles yet that would indicate this. Just before Christmas the Ensembles where pretty consistent of a cold spell but only just below -5 mark. We don't even have that now. Like others I think the Op's will pick up anything on the horizon first 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually where did La Nina favouring a milder second half of winter come from? 

1995-96 had cold spells in December and late January, February

1955-56 had a very cold February

1975-76 was a mild winter overall but the coldest/wintry weather came during the second half 

2011-12 had that cold first half to February. 

An overrated weakish correlation?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually where did La Nina favouring a milder second half of winter come from? 

1995-96 had cold spells in December and late January, February

1955-56 had a very cold February

1975-76 was a mild winter overall but the coldest/wintry weather came during the second half 

2011-12 had that cold first half to February. 

quite, its January that is more nailed on mild - 05 Easterly feb, 09 Easterly feb, 86 easterly feb (nina side of enso neutral), 18 late feb easterly (nina)

[PolarWarsaw]

24 minutes ago, IDO said:

Latest Met Office 10-day talking about the SSWE and suggesting latest research for the upcoming warming is indicative of a greater chance of SW'lys for the UK! With La Nina it is no surprise that the early direction from the coupling puts the UK away from the cold. I suspect we will learn a bit more from this SSWE as it seems unusual?

As for the 06z gefs, a mixed bag and no real clues away from the overall pattern trend. The op looks like a statistical outlier by d16 (2m temps):

So a run probably to ignore late on.

Give over IDO.

This is just as much a waste of time as the 'Phantom random block' last night. 

Anyone with the first clue on Met office updates - should know to take absolutely everything with a truck load of salt. They change on a daily basis and represent the changes amongst model out put each and every day. If they had been correct, this winter would have been extraordinarily mild and weather with a raging Vortex over Greenland that hadn't moved. Nonsense. Getting hung up on these from day to day is the exact reason why this thread descends into chaos every time a cold spell doesn't go as it might do.

I admire how you have changed your posts in recent years to include little rhetorical questions that hint at positivity, but there's those of us that have been here long enough to know your tone, style and overall hopes for winter. 

The best subtle troll there is on the internet, but that won't ever change.

Back to the ignore list.

Edited January 6, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

That may be the case but I don't see anything on the ensembles yet that would indicate this. Just before Christmas the Ensembles where pretty consistent of a cold spell but only just below -5 mark. We don't even have that now. Like others I think the Op's will pick up anything on the horizon first 

@MATTWOLVES showed a few ensembles thinking about the idea earlier, I agree we need to see this firm up over the coming suites, at that range there is a lot of things that can scupper it, namely Atlantic shortwaves

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually where did La Nina favouring a milder second half of winter come from? 

1995-96 had cold spells in December and late January, February

1955-56 had a very cold February

1975-76 was a mild winter overall but the coldest/wintry weather came during the second half 

2011-12 had that cold first half to February. 

No one has said that La Nina will wipe out cold until April, it is just when it spikes it will temper any cold as it goes more zonal from the Pacific. A spike is incoming for about 10-days so once that has passed through the trop drivers may subdue enough for the strat coupling to be more significant?

[Griff]

As the GFS rolls out, at least we can all agree that our expectations remain low, which will make any signs of winter come as a pleasant surprise. 

Remainder of this week forecast colder than I had imagined IMBY FYI BTW

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

@MATTWOLVES showed a few ensembles thinking about the idea earlier, I agree we need to see this firm up over the coming suites, at that range there is a lot of things that can scupper it, namely Atlantic shortwaves

A few runs yeah but it's at the very end and would need to be repeated more than a few times to get noticed. If by tomorrow 3/4 operations show the same and a few more ensembles are added maybe its time to take notice.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

No one has said that La Nina will wipe out cold until April, it is just when it spikes it will temper any cold as it goes more zonal from the Pacific. A spike is incoming for about 10-days so once that has passed through the trop drivers may subdue enough for the strat coupling to be more significant?

SO the GFS Op by your own admission could be "right" because its after the 10 day period in question.

[Essan]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Actually where did La Nina favouring a milder second half of winter come from? 

1995-96 had cold spells in December and late January, February

1955-56 had a very cold February

1975-76 was a mild winter overall but the coldest/wintry weather came during the second half 

2011-12 had that cold first half to February. 

I wonder whether those years also saw SSW?    Just a thought.

La Nina may in itself suggest a milder second half of winter in the UK, but there are always other factors at play.   In meteorology, you never get 4 from 2+2.   The equations are much, much more complex.  And, whilst sometimes the result is the same, just one factor being out by 1 can produce something altogether different.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Give over IDO.

This is just as much a waste of time as the 'Phantom random block' last night. 

Anyone with the first clue on Met office updates - should know to take absolutely everything with a truck load of salt. They change on a daily basis and represent the changes amongst model out put each and every day. If they had been correct, this winter would have been extraordinarily mild and weather with a raging Vortex over Greenland that hadn't moved. Nonsense. Getting hung up on these from day to day is the exact reason why this thread descends into chaos every time a cold spell doesn't go as it might do.

I admire how you have changed your posts in recent years to include little rhetorical questions that hint at positivity, but there's those of us that have been here long enough to know your tone, style and overall hopes for winter. 

The best subtle troll there is on the internet, but that won't ever change.

Back to the ignore list.

The ecm run was in fact a "phantom random block" so I am not sure why I deserve critique there (went flat a a pancake on the next run)? Just looking at it, you could tell it was contrived and unlikely ever to land at d10! Algorithms sometimes go crazy!

Maybe the Met is wrong but it is worth putting in the mix, there is a lot of backtracking going on in Twitter land so it is useful to hear from the latest research? Do not shoot the messenger!

[SLEETY]

26 minutes ago, IDO said:

Latest Met Office 10-day talking about the SSWE and suggesting latest research for the upcoming warming is indicative of a greater chance of SW'lys for the UK! With La Nina it is no surprise that the early direction from the coupling puts the UK away from the cold. I suspect we will learn a bit more from this SSWE as it seems unusual?

As for the 06z gefs, a mixed bag and no real clues away from the overall pattern trend. The op looks like a statistical outlier by d16 (2m temps):

So a run probably to ignore late on.

No!!  He didn't say it be milder after 10 days Looks like they not sure what's going to happen after 10 days, no clear winner,he didn't say it WOULD be mild 2nd half of winter, still 70% chance of colder conditions when SSW fully occurs, and 30% mild and sometimes SSW can lead to mild weather, as we know from last SSW

Shows you the complicated set_up when even all the powerful computers the MET have, can't work out what will happen after SSW happens fully, fascinated to see how this plays out. 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Some proper cold ensembles starting to appear in deep FI on the latest GFS run.

Looks like @mountain shadow might have been onto something with his landing date of 21 January? 

You've jinxed it now man!

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

SO the GFS Op by your own admission could be "right" because its after the 10 day period in question.

No idea, 12-days is enough for me atm as the gefs highlight. Things may flip suddenly, as it takes models, especially the gfs, up to about 10 days to get to grips with something like this? I just want to see some sort of cluster bringing that severe cold close to our shores rather than the trough diving to our east.

[That ECM]

 Back to discussing model outputT96 Ukmo and gfs. Differences at this time frame.

[Griff]

3 things keep swirling around my mind... 

A prospects for amplification 

B could things ever link up for Scandi heights? 

C persistence of the low, and how far the Atlantic makes progress, or rather has been delayed.

Not sure this means anything, probably just me going full 'A Beautiful Mind'... 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS still has the Friday snow there, but it's weaker than the 06z and looks more inline with the hi-res models now. There is another band that comes in after though on this run. Small accumulations possible for some.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[chris55]

With regards to this more westerly spell coming up, I think it was well signposted from numerous sources.
 

The downwelling of the SSW first flushes the existing westerly flow in the Strat down through the layers, then the reversal follows behind. It just happened to be in a period that was already easterly for our patch and that has seemed like a backwards step, where in a normally zonal flow you’d not have noticed it!!
 

We are most definitely seeing that westerly push in the models gathering pace into the weekend and into next week.
 

It’s what happens beyond that that is the interesting bit, and with the volatility a Major SSW causes with the models (it’s a huge influence compared to the norm) we have to be open to all sorts of outcomes showing in the mid to longer term output.
 

It’s what verifies that’s the important bit! 

 

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

No!!  He didn't say it be milder after 10 days Looks like they not sure what's going to happen after 10 days, no clear winner,he didn't say it WOULD be mild 2nd half of winter, still 70% chance of colder conditions when SSW fully occurs, and 30% mild and sometimes SSW can lead to mild weather, as we know from last SSW

Shows you the complicated set_up when even all the powerful computers the MET have, can't work out what will happen after SSW happens fully, fascinated to see how this plays out. 

 

Watch again, I have put the video at the time where he says that recent research suggests that SW'lys are more likely from the type of SSWE we are having than not, so less than 50%? That 70% covers every SSWE, not specific types.

>here<

Any issues: complaints to enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk.

 

[PolarWarsaw]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ecm run was in fact a "phantom random block" so I am not sure why I deserve critique there (went flat a a pancake on the next run)? Just looking at it, you could tell it was contrived and unlikely ever to land at d10! Algorithms sometimes go crazy!

Maybe the Met is wrong but it is worth putting in the mix, there is a lot of backtracking going on in Twitter land so it is useful to hear from the latest research? Do not shoot the messenger!

It was no more or less likely than the 18z GFS showing a Bartlett at T360, I'm sure you'd have pointed that out to us in a tone that wouldn't have been so 'Phantom'. 

That met update changes for Colder and Milder basically every single day - I'm sure you won't post an update that references potential of colder weather will you? In fact, I don't think I've seen you reference or post it even once....of course when the outlook starts looking milder you are the very first person to drive it down throats on here, normally using the GFS late in FI that is notorious for over doing the climatological norm the second it hasn't got a clue. 

Backtracking for what? People saying what MIGHT, COULD or CAN happen in the aftermath of an SSW? Oh right, well let me tell you - you MIGHT win the lottery if you do it this week? If it doesn't win then I can only assume you will be calling my 'backtrack' after that?

Give up the act, you are the same and have never changed over the years. Only your adjusted wording in recent years has kept you under the radar (or the ignore list) from the trolling. You disappear during cold spells, or when Cold and snow is forecast within a few days. Then re-appear the second there's a +360 hour zonal chart showing on the 18Z GFS to let us know about.

Like I say, there's those of us who have been here long enough to know you and those who are relatively new that probably won't pick up on your posting style who are likely to be influenced by your OTT use of the GFS at stupid timescales and near incessant tracking of milder/Atlantic conditions to build an agenda suited by your preferences - IE, an Atlantic driven, Bartlett style mild winter. 

 

 

[That ECM]

You might want to view the ukmo from t144 back to t24. I know the fun is beyond t144 and the t24 is from this morning.

Edited January 6, 2021 by That ECM

[Griff]

At least no complaints about Russian heights... 

[Drifter]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

Watch again, I have put the video at the time where he says that recent research suggests that SW'lys are more likely from the type of SSWE we are having than not, so less than 50%? That 70% covers every SSWE, not specific types.

>here<

Any issues: complaints to enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk.

 

He actually, quite clearly, said ‘sometimes’ gives south westerlies. 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

At least no complaints about Russian heights... 

Or Iberian Heights