Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[PolarWarsaw]

17 hours ago, Catacol said:

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such weak westerly winds, but once again we see the potency of Atlantic influence. Never ever to be underestimated.

The vortex splits in the mid strat and as we knew was possible one daughter vortex lands in the Atlantic. The hope had been it might be further west...but no....

and lower down on the boundary the Atlantic ridge is flattened by the pressure.

But note the troughing signal still over Europe, and the upstream ongoing amplification that is still wanting to throw up wave breaks. The next surge (what a pacific jet we have had so far this season!) kicks in as previously advertised around 9th Jan

and so as soon as the vortex energy moves away ridging is likely to resume in the North Atlantic. A few days later the vortex has been further stretched and remains split with the forecast this time firmly on a deeper Asian trough and a weaker Canadian residual daughter. Door wide open to pacific inspired wave break ridging.

Tonights ECM shows the ridging that we would expect. 

By calling next week incorrectly the hopes of a historic January have gone. But back to the original thought of the deepest cold in the heart of winter we may yet pull a significant spell of wintry impacts at the back end of the month. Speed of vortex recovery or the potential for more vortex disruption beginning to be signposted later in the month will determine whether February can also deliver the goods. Deep down a bit disappointed - but as ever optimistic that drivers can align and cold can come.

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

[Valleyboy]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Its 300 plus hours away if it gets to t72 then will worry about the details.

I didn’t mention detail.  Viewing that chart in isolation, would suggest  marginality for much of the UK.  It could evolve into something much better though.  

[MP-R]

23 minutes ago, LRD said:

Must admit to getting a sinking feeling about things at the moment!

So is this weekend’s ridge

It does seem incredibly bad luck that as soon as cold uppers appear to the east, our easterly is cut off and the atmosphere conspires to bring us the mildest possible outcome next week, although my amateur self can’t see it lasting long. We could almost do with a southerly to bring the sinking cold back up from Spain lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

Have to say mate - thanks but i actually didn't expect this SSW to occur until later in Jan (much later) , sadly it looks like the bit i have got right over the last week is the one i really desperately wanted to be wrong about - the return of milder weather in mid January, my winter forecast could still come true if we have another attempt at a split in the strat, or a trop led change to colder weather late Jan and end up with a cold Feb but must admit i am not optimistic to the point where i am confident, looks like the shortwave enerfy in the Atlantic will have put pay to a proper Jan cold spell, battleground still possible or shorter periods of severe cold late Jan but just wished we could nail the big one.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Johnp said:

I'm always dubious of these kind of charts - for example we have this for a few days time, but the reality won't be as wintry as you'd perhaps expect. 

Me too John. But this time we will most certainly have proper cold to our North and North East in a couple of weeks unlike the 'cold' spell we have now.

[sebastiaan1973]

20 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

I agree, it's a pleasure to read the insights from these guys. Above the ground is your head off. We all know that. The butchers are always ready

There are many more that I really like to read. Lot's of people have their unique point of view with interesting knowledge. Thanks Netweather.

[Scott Ingham]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Operational and para both showing the met office long term forecast of deep cold over Scandinavia with us just on the boundary, which is high risk, high reward in terms of frontal snowfall. It could be a rollercoaster over the next week or so in terms of model output, with loads of booms and lots of toys out of prams.

Yes. Quite.

Im glad ive stuck to my guns because the tranding today has certainly been towards the ssw to start to show its hand more and more as we hit that 20th-30th period.

More of a watching game still but quiet comfidemce in the background is how id describe things

[Scott Ingham]

53 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

Thank you mate! Appreciate them words.

Weve certainly got the most interesting part of winter to come yet!

[Scott Ingham]

48 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have to say mate - thanks but i actually didn't expect this SSW to occur until later in Jan (much later) , sadly it looks like the bit i have got right over the last week is the one i really desperately wanted to be wrong about - the return of milder weather in mid January, my winter forecast could still come true if we have another attempt at a split in the strat, or a trop led change to colder weather late Jan and end up with a cold Feb but must admit i am not optimistic to the point where i am confident, looks like the shortwave enerfy in the Atlantic will have put pay to a proper Jan cold spell, battleground still possible or shorter periods of severe cold late Jan but just wished we could nail the big one.

I wouldnt be so quick to rule out a severe spell end of January.

These chances have grown over the past few days and i wish you had taken me up on that bet hahaha

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, posted that in regionals, any snow that falls, should remain until Tuesday evening, milder here Tues night

This blip has been pushed further and further back!

[SLEETY]

When do people think the models will start showing the  effects  of the SSW consistently, we have seen the odd very cold run then next run they revert to mild again, if we don't see many more very cold runs, then I guess its not happening

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Some proper cold ensembles starting to appear in deep FI on the latest GFS run.

Looks like @mountain shadow might have been onto something with his landing date of 21 January? 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Kentish Snowman in Yorks

[Daniel*]

I hope no one minds but I did a blog post on SSW very much related to model output, I’m not most knowledgable in this field but I think there are early promising signs.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming declared (05/01/21) - what does this mean for our winter weather?

WWW.THESNOWDREAMERWXBLOG.COM

---

Yesterday, witnessed a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) it is an event in which westerly wind 60N at 10hPa roughly 30km high in atmosphere, above...

 

[SLEETY]

If we do get another easterly I presume it won't be as tepid as this pathetic attempt, the air needs to be sourced further Northand not the Med next time.. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect.

I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. 

Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns 

Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum.

Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. 

Well done!

No disrespect to any of these people, but did THEY forecast a SSW or merely report on what the strat experts like Simon Lee were predicting, after all its the experts in that field that produce the data.

I say this because thats where i get my info from, and report it as such in my own blog and have done since November.

[IDO]

Latest Met Office 10-day talking about the SSWE and suggesting latest research for the upcoming warming is indicative of a greater chance of SW'lys for the UK! With La Nina it is no surprise that the early direction from the coupling puts the UK away from the cold. I suspect we will learn a bit more from this SSWE as it seems unusual?

As for the 06z gefs, a mixed bag and no real clues away from the overall pattern trend. The op looks like a statistical outlier by d16 (2m temps):

So a run probably to ignore late on.

[Kasim Awan]

ICON at 144h.

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON at 144h.

Trending flatter imo.  

[stratty]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Latest Met Office 10-day talking about the SSWE and suggesting latest research for the upcoming warming is indicative of a greater chance of SW'lys for the UK! With La Nina it is no surprise that the early direction from the coupling puts the UK away from the cold. I suspect we will learn a bit more from this SSWE as it seems unusual?

As for the 06z gefs, a mixed bag and no real clues away from the overall pattern trend. The op looks like a statistical outlier by d16 (2m temps):

So a run probably to ignore late on.

Excuse my French, but, weeble to that!

[frosty ground]

Looking very flat, and I would agree with IDO at this point I do not see any Change towards a blocked pattern that is favourable to the UK

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

No disrespect to any of these people, but did THEY forecast a SSW or merely report on what the strat experts like Simon Lee were predicting, after all its the experts in that field that produce the data.

I say this because thats where i get my info from, and report it as such in my own blog and have done since November.

To be fair the other 3, particularly Scott ingham, forecasted it well before it came into GFS range, he was probably a week too early with his forecast but very near, i actually thought later, when it was obvious it wasn't going to be a split SSW  was when i called that a potent cold spell would'nt affect the UK immediately after the SSW, reasoning plain and simple - 66% of SSW's result in potent cold for uk, but that put simply into  2 categories, splits and displacements, displacements - immediate trop responses giving UK proper cold, very tiny amount, splits - about 80% or more.

Edited January 6, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[PolarWarsaw]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

When do people think the models will start showing the  effects  of the SSW consistently, we have seen the odd very cold run then next run they revert to mild again, if we don't see many more very cold runs, then I guess its not happening

Absolutely nobody can give you an even remotely logistical response to that question.

What are tonight's lottery numbers? 

Take each run as it appears and then use EPS/GEFS to follow trends.

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looking very flat, and I would agree with IDO at this point I do not see any Change towards a blocked pattern that is favourable to the UK

Perhaps they're like the invisible block 'discussed' here Mid-December, that left a few people scratching their heads... 

Believe and it will come, any way onwards and upwards, once again the ICON as helpful as... Well the icon really. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Griff

[KTtom]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Latest Met Office 10-day talking about the SSWE and suggesting latest research for the upcoming warming is indicative of a greater chance of SW'lys for the UK! With La Nina it is no surprise that the early direction from the coupling puts the UK away from the cold. I suspect we will learn a bit more from this SSWE as it seems unusual?

As for the 06z gefs, a mixed bag and no real clues away from the overall pattern trend. The op looks like a statistical outlier by d16 (2m temps):

So a run probably to ignore late on.

In an odd way that would just be funny!  I've stated a few times, I'm not that worried about snow, I just want cold and dry so I can get some important jobs done outside, the recent output has lead me to take the rest of the week off to get this outside work done, as the output from the  models, and the Met currently have left me feeling its going to be a long time before the dry cold conditions return!

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looking very flat, and I would agree with IDO at this point I do not see any Change towards a blocked pattern that is favourable to the UK

It's going to be flat until after day 9, the positive is the Arctic high is stronger and drifting into our side of the hemisphere. We need to see if the GFS can send a ridge up to join it from the Atlantic sector to slice the trop vortex in 2 around day 10-12