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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Without the secondary low in the Atlantic its very close for the low moving south east and pulling in some very cold air ie 210  hours granted.. 

    Edited by swfc
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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    I think we will struggle to stop the westerly momentum in the next 7- 10days, with the MJO and la Nina forcing, after this period is where the interest lies.

    I am interested in what the para goes onto to show past day 9, will it show the SSW winning out against these teleconnections. It was a close call in the earlier run.

    Marco has hinted that they are unsure what will prevail. Knowing the UK luck the deep cold will grind to a halt in the Netherlands.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    I hate to say this, but no cold air, it is over Asia side. Japan looks to get clobbered again.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, swfc said:

    Without the secondary low in the Atlantic its very close for the low moving south east and pulling in some very cold air ie 210 granted.. 

    Looks very cold to the north heading slowly down, if it were to ever happen of course. 

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    I think we will struggle to stop the westerly momentum in the next 7- 10days, with the MJO and la Nina forcing, after this period is where the interest lies.

    I am interested in what the para goes onto to show past day 9, will it show the SSW winning out against these teleconnections. It was a close call in the earlier run.

    Marco has hinted that they are unsure what will prevail. Knowing the UK luck the deep cold will grind to a halt in the Netherlands.

     

     yep we prob end up with the AZH on top of us and the -16 850 50 miles in the north sea off the kent coast !!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, warrenb said:

    I hate to say this, but no cold air, it is over Asia side. Japan looks to get clobbered again.

    At the moment, yes, but as the SSW impacts the cold air will move Westwards (hopefully)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Could be another close call here.

    Para at 192

     

    gfsnh-0-192 (3).png

    Watch for fireworks? 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Just an indicator of what’s going on higher up and now dripping down into the modelling as it sees things a little clearer is visible on gfs post day 8. Up until yesterday’s 18z, we saw a vortex extension from Asia to Canada which prevented any meaningful cross polar amplification across the NH ......the 18z broke that vortex by T300 and now two runs later we see something way more interesting 

    image.thumb.png.f96fc1d0e76f4ad08210ab07de14bb52.png

    Would I be right in saying that's the mother vortex on our side and a daughter vortex in the North American side??

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    UKMO looking very alone it must be said. ICON both GFS runs and the GEM all looking similar to each other. NAVGEM closest to the UKMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    No one can call what is going to happen with this SSW - models will still do what they do best and be over the place for a while. 
    expected. We wait.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    GFSP has been on the money and consistent for days now while all the other models have been switching and swapping around. Maybe just maybe it’s pulling it out the bag!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

    GFSP has been on the money and consistent for days now while all the other models have been switching and swapping around. Maybe just maybe it’s pulling it out the bag!

    Agreed, both scenarios had occurred to me. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    4 minutes ago, sundog said:

    Would I be right in saying that's the mother vortex on our side and a daughter vortex in the North American side??

    Maybe its the Big Daddy?

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    Just now, Griff said:

    Agreed, both scenarios had occurred to me. 

    Don’t wanna jinx it mate but it has been looking the best and it has shown it consistently.. It’s either very right or very wrong. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    I hate that idiot with the wizard hat on .Always spoils everything.

    image.thumb.png.b564ff69949143202e41bb0cf7c8545f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    15 minutes ago, southbank said:

     yep we prob end up with the AZH on top of us and the -16 850 50 miles in the north sea off the kent coast !!!!

    Can't offer you -16, but will you take -6?

    Edit: it's so close to a special run here, like earlier

    gfsnh-1-210 (2).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    7 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Watch for fireworks? 😂 

     

    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Don’t wanna jinx it mate but it has been looking the best and it has shown it consistently.. It’s either very right or very wrong. 

    Of course it's going to leave us on the mild side just to teach us respect this time... All just for fun. 

    More curious about changes in icon etc vs ukmo early on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    It was around this juncture on the GFS// 06z that an area of high pressure moved from the North Pacific straight through the pole to Greenland.

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    Just now, Griff said:

     

    Of course it's going to leave us on the mild side just to teach us respect this time... All just for fun. 

    More curious about changes in icon etc vs ukmo early on. 

    Leaves us on the mild side this time but with the SSW and the colder uppers hopefully shifting west, you never know. Things could change, and fast. I doubt the models have been taken into account the SSW yet it only happened yesterday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Just an indicator of what’s going on higher up and now dripping down into the modelling as it sees things a little clearer is visible on gfs post day 8. Up until yesterday’s 18z, we saw a vortex extension from Asia to Canada which prevented any meaningful cross polar amplification across the NH ......the 18z broke that vortex by T300 and now two runs later we see something way more interesting 

    image.thumb.png.f96fc1d0e76f4ad08210ab07de14bb52.png

    Yup. Glad to see that the first round of 12Z's didn't leave me looking like a fool with my 'still positive trends' comment earlier today 😅

    They are still alive: Hudson Low, Arctic High, Iceland High, Russia heights disappearing.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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