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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    34 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    If you live in the north.

    Agreed , less of something widespread I'd think

    I'd like to see something from the charts at the end of the weekend early next week

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Probably off topic but icon at 144 hrs has some better ridging 🙏🙏🙏probably nothing going forward 

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    52 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Panic over.

    Check out Met Office update!

    Significant snowfall alert!

    Shame there isn't a laugh emoji to choose from...

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Probably off topic but icon at 144 hrs has some better ridging 🙏🙏🙏probably nothing going forward 

    Yes, decent around Iceland, it might allow a brief north westerly, before that energy from the Atlantic moves in again once more.

    00z attached for comparison

    iconnh-0-162 (2).png

    iconnh-0-174 (3).png

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    38 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

    I know 2020 was a year we  all want to forget, but it did exist . Honestly. And no we didnt have a ssw last year. So 3 out of 4.

    Did we have SSW last year? Was it that bad I forgot!🤦‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    7 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Probably off topic but icon at 144 hrs has some better ridging 🙏🙏🙏probably nothing going forward 

    Much better 

     

    icon-0-162.png?05-12

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    Much better 

     

    icon-0-162.png?05-12

    Yes and pushing much further north at the end. Blocking Atlantic off 🤔🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
    52 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

     

    Judah uses the GFS

     im sure the earlier tweet mentioned usa also getting a lobe of the Vortex but eurassia getting the deeper cold 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

    Icon is what we want to see happening next with energy going under a blocking high that is over Iceland. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Those  insipid low Heighths around the esb are a real pain. Any decent ridge pushing out from there would really change things down the line 😏😏

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Blimey icon 180 worth stopping home schooling and foregoing the detention (it didn't go well on day 1). There is hope for the the models at least... 

    iconnh-0-180.png

    iconnh-1-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Blimey icon 180 worth stopping home schooling and foregoing the detention (it didn't go well on day 1). There is hope for the the models at least... 

    iconnh-0-180.png

    iconnh-1-180.png

    GFS is trying to force ridging at 144 hrs ie Deeping low more on the 12z.mabye not enough Heighths? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Lets see if we can get this repeating from 06z//

    image.thumb.png.5895edb10e6a123b346683897dfbdcc6.png

    Peturb 28 from GFS Too

    image.thumb.png.d3833e016348aa1ee124d1785a5758f6.png

    Wonder if this is what the METO are seeing

     

     

     

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

    v cold on Friday from UKMOimage.thumb.png.9351cdd07b2ee0db94112ad46a0e2761.pngimage.thumb.png.b3cf6e4bee6ca2d1bb8785eb7d20bb6c.pngGFS still messy with the cold image.thumb.png.bd3d4f4f2d37ec2c7cefebf82cca275d.pngimage.thumb.png.aa7effdb8b342871ac9369a2ef9f97e7.pngI think its because GFS has that to our south

    +72hours and still not accurate my god

    think I prefer GFS, gives many areas snow,UKMO lookd dry and boring

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-162.png?12

    IS the GFS Starting to  pick up something that would be at relevantly short notice? 

    Possibly. If it remains on the 18z and Tom could increase the ridging and forcing 🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    BBC  say warming up, DOH!

    It is warming up as warmer air runs over the top of high pressure but for how long?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Gfs trying but looks like it's a bust with the ridge not holding, icon nearly made it though, at least if we do get another easterly it won't be marginal crud again. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    13 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Blimey icon 180 worth stopping home schooling and foregoing the detention (it didn't go well on day 1). There is hope for the the models at least... 

    iconnh-0-180.png

    iconnh-1-180.png

    Icon and gfs 180, some similarities and differences of course 

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    This looks encouraging from the 12z GFS...

    C3D751C3-A272-4C1E-BDA2-65B4F8E2934F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    UKMO Op 144 looks ok to me. Heights lowering over Iberia. Possible gap mid Atlantic for heights to be build into, with a chance the Atlantic low phases with the Iberian lower heights

     

    image.thumb.png.07be9551cc6980f04e170afacdddb027.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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