Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[IDO]

GFS maybe wrong but it is consistent with the UK high by d9, another run, another uk high:

12z>06z>

The issue remains post-d10 as modelling the Arctic high has changed with every run so the NH profile is different from the 06z:

12z>06z>

So maybe changes d12 onwards?

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Im the long term id rather take GFS > UKMO 144 surface cold by then> by you never know some sort of retrograde Day 7/8...

Yeah i agree on that.

Cold imversion. Very cold as a holding pattern until zonal winds vacate Greenland or Scandi.

Id rather take it its less risky.

I just feel zonal winds are being overly forecast and as these relax back so will high pressure towards greenland leaving a spot for diving low sliding snowy pressures

[Kasim Awan]

GEM. Azores causing issues but ultimately improved.

[Snowman.]

Arctic heights increasing on both GFSP and UKMO. 

 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My memory may be playing tricks on me but haven’t the last few runs and last 3/4 days of ensembles shown the warm up to be 15th? I can see the cold being extended by a couple of days but haven’t seen the general trend change that much

3 days ago it showed a warm up on the 11th.

Its beem pushed further back in time.

Its whats opening up my eyes

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes I meant with the slider, further W not E.

It is something I do all the time but usually catch myslef.

Oh yeah hahahaha 

Cant tell you the level of confusion i had then!

[topo]

GFS average and control very close to operational by 132.

So basically UKMO, GFSparallel vs GFSop, GFS ensebles, GEM, Icon

Edited January 4, 2021 by topo

[Griff]

Crumbs of comfort, GFSP looking a bit less flat in fi, signs of amplification towards Greenland... 

Crumbs... 

Edit: why am I even looking beyond 120-144

Edited January 4, 2021 by Griff

[Mucka]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Oh yeah hahahaha 

Cant tell you the level of confusion i had then!

I do it all the time, have to continually correct myself. Just wanted to be sure that is what you meant.

[TSNWK]

Is it wrong of me to actually prefer UKM at 144.. that has got to be cold at surface after a week of cold and no real mild air into Europe for nearly two weeks by then...

think I would like the slow stable type, preparing the way for fun and games which you have to think are possible with the NH looking like that..

 

[Harsh Climate]

Funny though if ECM backtracks and is very good and cold, we would be right back in the game.

ECM v everything wouldn't be the worse horse to back. But obviously that's all relative at this stage.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I do it all the time, have to continually correct myself. Just wanted to be sure that is what you meant.

Looking forward to the ECM. It wouldnt take much sharpening to see low pressures slide into the UK.

Theres certainly increasing ensemble support for this scenario.

Would you not agree we are seeing this "milder" spell eaten from both sides?

[Anthony Burden]

GFS if correct cold all of next week,and as I thought high pressure holding with northerly flow

after low moves from the north of us into the continent.Nothing there to suggest milder

westerlies ,can now see why Met office 30day said confidence is low for next week let’s 

see what ECM has for us.

 

 

[Mucka]

While I understand if GFS is wrong the ensemble suite will be askew as well it may be worth noting that they ahve always shown a UKMO type solution within that suite and are moving away from it rather than toward it today.

I always feel with such model divergence we end up with both models shifting back toward a middle ground, one more than the other maybe but neither being proved totally correct or incorrect in the end.

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Mucka

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

3 days ago it showed a warm up on the 11th.

Its beem pushed further back in time.

Its whats opening up my eyes

Here is Saturday's ( still on my phone ) looks like a colder set than today for the 11th

[Snowman.]

GEFS are all over the shop at just 144. Many different options which is to be expected but some differ drastically haven't seen in this bad in some time.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Snowman.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Looking forward to the ECM. It wouldnt take much sharpening to see low pressures slide into the UK.

Theres certainly increasing ensemble support for this scenario.

Would you not agree we are seeing this "milder" spell eaten from both sides?

I will concede on this run gfsp has shifted a bit more favourably so hoping it's a trend back towards the cold... 

I won't try and confuse things with use of a compass!  

[CameronWS]

33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z is very similar to 06z by Sunday, certainly temp wise (see below for 6z) warm up has always been shown for middle of the month (240hrs) so it’s a bit early in the run to be celebrating ...

Something that frustrates me is when people make generalised comments which are only true for a certain area. 12z run looks way colder for most of Scotland with greater chance of snow.

[Cold Winter Night]

Hmm, GFS in FI is not even that far from that booming 18Z a couple of days ago.

Look at that cold, look at that Arctic High and the amplification in the Atlantic. It keeps coming back.

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at 180.

It feels a bit futile analysing charts after 96 at the moment with all the variation popping up at short range in the models, but I guess we are looking for trends. The biggest one I spot across them all is the Arctic heights producing a negative AO

 

[SLEETY]

Always gfs flattens the pattern in fl when their was chance of mega cold arriving. 

Anyway its already failed this week when it was  ironically against the flatter pattern despite the other models going against it. 

So much for it being the king of modelling over USA and North Atlantic! 

Edited January 4, 2021 by SLEETY

[Griff]

Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

Hmm, GFS in FI is not even that far from that booming 18Z a couple of days ago.

Look at that cold, look at that Arctic High and the amplification in the Atlantic. It keeps coming back.

GFSP going up  

[carinthian]

21 hours ago, carinthian said:

Evening all, ok the models show the collapse of the Greenland Ridge this week. However, most of this week will be cold out towards the weekend especially in SE Britain, The chart below from UKMO features the Greenland Sea trough/low in formation at 144t and the positioning of a new feature the Iberian Low. Both yet to be determined in its final movements and crucial to the longer term outlook. Reasons yet to be optimistic for many of us cold lovers. The route to mild far from nailed based on the shorter term charts.

C

Evening all. Well its 24 hours on from the chart issued by UKMO above and the latest below still shows no real change in its output. Obviously a reluctance  to drop the East Greenland Sea trough , continues to still show lower heights maintained  over the continent. Where do we go from there ?  Some of that bottled up cold air will eventually drain in to Scandinavia. My own thoughts are for a high cell to develop to the NW of Britain with a NE ly flow back into Southern Britain. Out to days 6-10 we may need to start to look at developments to the south influence proceedings . Again the models generally show no easy route to mild in the shorter term. I will get an update from the team over here in the morning to gather some thoughts on whats going on in this complicated picture being thrown out and with no reference to SSW ( which is a complicated science with-in its own right ) which I do not fully understand anyway !

C

Edited January 4, 2021 by carinthian

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here is Saturday's ( still on my phone ) looks like a colder set than today for the 11th

You are right then! I had the 11th down as showing milder. Ill have a look before then to see if i can see the set.

I only have the 11th becasue of a pm convo i had in my head with feb but my brains a bit fried with corona virus atm!

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is it wrong of me to actually prefer UKM at 144.. that has got to be cold at surface after a week of cold and no real mild air into Europe for nearly two weeks by then...

think I would like the slow stable type, preparing the way for fun and games which you have to think are possible with the NH looking like that..

 

Many classic cold spells have started with a frosty anticyclone over us.  I wouldn’t be unhappy with UKMO, would have snow showers in SE into weekend the continent would be much colder by then so DPs not a worry.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Daniel*