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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    We Need a link up here, defo a step back cold from the GFS here - It’ll be interesting to see the ENS vs 06z ens.

    A link up here would be good.

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    If we push the envelope and widen it to encompass a greater extreme of GFS we would stay wintry, if we did the same with UKMO we would stay wintry, the middle ground not so much, so guess where we will fall?

    Le sigh.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    So.... mild blip...mild even at all?

    Models confused 

    Ive seen enough here at 150 to know there is a chance of the battoeground/slider event around the 10th give or take a day or 2 i spoke about.

    Were trending back to continued cold. So again. Talking with certainty about the end to cold is very premature yet. 

    If that sharpens forget mild blip think snowy blip as discussed 3 days ago

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    I back this post. A more negative tilt here would significantly amplify the ridge > Omega ridge > southerly jet with sliders > snow potential. 

    gfs-0-174 (3).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    New GFS (Parallel) seems closer to UKMO at 120

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Wedge is once again on my mind as well as the GFS apparently. Getting very weird feelings about this Jan and Jan 2013.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    UKMO showing the way to proper cold at 144 hours,lets see some consistency from it tomorrow.

    Eh? How do you work that out?

    Are you talking about an inversion cold?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    Just now, Kasim Awan said:

    I back this post. A more negative tilt here would significantly amplify the ridge > Omega ridge > southerly jet with sliders > snow potential. 

    gfs-0-174 (3).png

    Yeah i could see this option played out in this chaotic head of mine 5 days ago when it was called.

    Its only one run though so becuase i said sit on the fence of mild you have to sit on the fence of this scenario as well.

    But since yesterdays 12z as the models hit high res they havw started to go against thrm ensembles calling us to go mild

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Yeah i could see this option played out in this chaotic head of mine 5 days ago when it was called.

    Its only one run though so becuase i said sit on the fence of mild you have to sit on the fence of this scenario as well.

    But since yesterdays 12z as the models hit high res they havw started to go against thrm ensembles calling us to go mild

    Fine lines, a shift to the east and mild, but everyone's favourite word: POTENTIAL, that way lies... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I’d take this from the ECM at 192, no warm ups here. If the ENS follow this the swing on the ENS graph would be huge. 
    Ill defo not hold my breath without UKMO on board.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    If you go to the EXMWF site and search for SSW, there are some interesting papers. One that caught my eye was a proposal to approve a project, over 2021 to 2023,  outlining compute needed to work it BTW, on predicting SSW. Looks to me that the last 10 years has really developed the ability to forecast SSW, but I am not so sure I have read anything concreate yet on the predictability of  it's effects, there being 3 major buckets an SSW may fit into, with ENSO and NAO thrown in. I believe a to La Nina is the best state to be in for accuracy on predictions. Not enough time to get more than a glance, and it's clear the professionals are still working on it, given the complexity and the resources needed, we can't hold our breath.  Otherwise one has to wait and see, perhaps as late as end of month. Not todays 12z that's for sure. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    Just now, Griff said:

    Fine lines, a shift to the east and mild, but everyone's favourite word: POTENTIAL, that way lies... 

    Yes but we were way further east with the pattern yesterday the block has only shifted further and further west with every run to the point were nearly in slider potential.

    I thought slider at this week jist dint expect ir to trend so far east to have to make corrections back to a cold pattern

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ^^ But guys @Scott Ingham @Kasim Awanwe were here but 24 hours ago & the GFS > p has now moved to the UKMO

    Its no good keep backing the same horse that pulled up lame even if it does look great....

    More energy that anticipated is going to push up from the south- The 12z (p) Creates a steeper easterly than the UKMO but look how far away it is from the GFS.

    GFS totally out on a limb now dont fall for the same mistake twice-

    Yes only one option with a hopefull attitude disclaimer but we shall not villify it completely. We know the model volatility associated with SSWs in terms of blocking. Let's keep an eye.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ^^ But guys @Scott Ingham @Kasim Awanwe were here but 24 hours ago & the GFS > p has now moved to the UKMO

    Its no good keep backing the same horse that pulled up lame even if it does look great....

    More energy that anticipated is going to push up from the south- The 12z (p) Creates a steeper easterly than the UKMO but look how far away it is from the GFS.

    GFS totally out on a limb now dont fall for the same mistake twice-

    24 hours ago the GFS has the same chart practically as the UKMO.

    Its backed further west with every run.

    I may be wrong and if i am i am but my call would be for us not to turn mild like ensembles forecast a week ago.

    But we make these calls and live and die by them i guess!

    I have to make a call and this one is mine.

    Chances are far greater we end up mild i agree and im not telling everyone this is what will happen. Its just my own opiniom.

    I called it 8 days ago. It looked dead 2 days ago its edging back since then

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ^^ But guys we were here but 24 hours ago & the GFS > p has now moved to the UKMO

    Its no good keep backing the same horse that pulled up lame even if it does look great....

    More energy that anticipated is going to push up from the south- The 12z (p) Creates a steeper easterly than the UKMO but look how far away it is from the GFS.

    GFS totally out on a limb now dont fall for the same mistake twice-

    GFS has GEM backing if that's worth anything at all haha

    108

    gemnh-0-108.png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Yes but we were way further east with the pattern yesterday the block has only shifted further and further west with every run to the point were nearly in slider potential.

    I thought slider at this week jist dint expect ir to trend so far east to have to make corrections back to a cold pattern

    You mean West don't you? ⬅️

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Yes but we were way further east with the pattern yesterday the block has only shifted further and further west with every run to the point were nearly in slider potential.

    I thought slider at this week jist dint expect ir to trend so far east to have to make corrections back to a cold pattern

    GFSP won't play nice, who knows maybe later? 

     

    gfsnh-0-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    24 hours ago the GFS has the same chart practically as the UKMO.

    Its backed further west with every run.

    I may be wrong and if i am i am but my call would be for us not to turn mild like ensembles forecast a week ago.

    But we make these calls and live and die by them i guess!

    Im the long term id rather take GFS > UKMO 144 surface cold by then> by you never know some sort of retrograde Day 7/8...

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    Posted
  • Location: Belfast
  • Location: Belfast

    Sorry if it’s not the right place but can someone briefly explain the difference between a wedge and a ridge? (Other than wedges make sledges 🛷) 🤣🤣 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    You mean West don't you? ⬅️

    The block was further East yesterday and even worse two days ago to the point the high looked to be toppling over europe.

    This gfs run it has trended further west and isnt toppling over the UK as much on the 10th

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, SnowSalah said:

    Sorry if it’s not the right place but can someone briefly explain the difference between a wedge and a ridge? (Other than wedges make sledges 🛷) 🤣🤣 

    A ridge is a pointed area of  strong high pressure, where as a wedge is a rounded weak area of high pressure

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    24 hours ago the GFS has the same chart practically as the UKMO.

    Its backed further west with every run.

    I may be wrong and if i am i am but my call would be for us not to turn mild like ensembles forecast a week ago.

    But we make these calls and live and die by them i guess!

    My memory may be playing tricks on me but haven’t the last few runs and last 3/4 days of ensembles shown the warm up to be 15th? I can see the cold being extended by a couple of days but haven’t seen the general trend change that much 🤷🏻‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, Scott Ingham said:

    The block was further East yesterday and even worse two days ago to the point the high looked to be toppling over europe.

    This gfs run it has trended further west and isnt toppling over the UK as much on the 10th

    Yes I meant with the slider, further W not E.

    It is something I do all the time but usually catch myslef.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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