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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    I don’t think it’s always a guarantee that America going cold results us in a mild westerly regime?

    Not  always, but likely. Anyway it seems from his follow up reply to IDO, i might  have misunderstood the wider implications of the TPV moving to North America.  So you could well be right.

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    That ec modelling became more amplified after the tech ssw began ......

    Yeah thats right this is what i remember it took the ECM time to forecast the conditions on the ground but once it picked up on the wave it was more accurate from distance

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    The red dotted lines are the areas of high pressure, the green line is the direction of travel/wind

    They're above average pressure for that particular area at this time of year - anomalies the red ones, not above average pressure relative to the surrounding air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Parallel is also having a pause for thought... Marginally slower pushing west to east. 

    Don’t have a problem with that T132:

    9A2FFA09-BF69-453A-91EB-CA1E84BF6AF3.thumb.png.ee7aa20469c01a0dac748358bee613b9.png

    Let’s see where it goes from here...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Don’t have a problem with that T132:

    9A2FFA09-BF69-453A-91EB-CA1E84BF6AF3.thumb.png.ee7aa20469c01a0dac748358bee613b9.png

    Let’s see where it goes fro here...

    I'm greedy and hoping for Greenland amplification and eventually a scandi high... Not asking too much? 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Presumably flat gfs in FI, doesn't deserve a mention? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, Griff said:

    I'm greedy and hoping for Greenland amplification and eventually a scandi high... Not asking too much? 😂 

    I think there’s an 80% chance that will happen eventually, @Griff, but not necessarily on this run.  

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I will post these,...and i don't need to say much.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.843852ac0b63f098fc869baeca22b9cb.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ca7e237ca7cddea90574ab5cd28bad50.gif

    The 8/14 is indeed like the ec day 10 anoms.  That’s significant as that noaa cpc is straight naefs day 11 today with no ec input 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I will post these,...and i don't need to say much.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.843852ac0b63f098fc869baeca22b9cb.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ca7e237ca7cddea90574ab5cd28bad50.gif

    That 8-14 day chart is a vast improvement away from the previous one

    Gone is the west based NAO

    These still give me confidence that the models are struggling as op runs dont look anytging like these and as john holmes and mushymanrob would say it is very rare they are wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, Griff said:

    Presumably flat gfs in FI, doesn't deserve a mention? 

    Not really as we have been looking at flatter in FI for a while, just keep an eye out for improved amplification later.

    It is probably better to concentrate on the cold we have and how we can eek out the most from it for now while hoping to extend it as much as possible and this run is a small improvement in that regard.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFSP 150 is far more interesting even if it's not supported... 

    gfsnh-0-150.png

    gfsnh-1-150.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Definitely a signal from the models for high pressure to build south of the UK. Hopefully it's just temporary and doesn't turn into, you know, that name that's forbidden. 

    image.thumb.png.1785b0df0b21470f0098081bde38a872.png
     

    Edited by Eskimo
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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

    Definitely a signal from the models for high pressure to build south of the UK. Hopefully it's just temporary and doesn't, you know, that name that's forbidden. 

    image.thumb.png.1785b0df0b21470f0098081bde38a872.png
     

    😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Ridge starting to appear now on the gfs.

    gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.99d90471dbac30a7009f9063092876da.png

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    2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

    Definitely a signal from the models for high pressure to build south of the UK. Hopefully it's just temporary and doesn't turn into, you know, that name that's forbidden. 

    image.thumb.png.1785b0df0b21470f0098081bde38a872.png
     

    I saw this last week and hoped it would die down but of course it didn't smh 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I wonder whether we’ll see one of those scenarios where each day the return to milder conditions is delayed a day. Wouldn’t surprise me.

    Also, the models have all picked up on a more zonal pattern over the last 24 hours. Another thing that is quite common is that signal is somewhat overblown and it takes a few days for the pendulum to be dampened and the real picture emerges.

    Could be, at least for the surface cold as I think the models are too progressive with the Westerly flow and flattening of high pressure over the UK since they dropped the idea of the trough dropping S

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    That 8-14 day chart is a vast improvement away from the previous one

    Gone is the west based NAO

    These still give me confidence that the models are struggling as op runs dont look anytging like these and as john holmes and mushymanrob would say it is very rare they are wrong!

    Yep, got to focus on the ensemble output as the ops are trying to flip a chocolate-coated cod fillet in a pancake at the moment. Because of the SSW.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    I should have held on to the Ω symbol a little longer... 

     

    gfsnh-0-156.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    I should have held on to the Ω symbol a little longer... 

     

    gfsnh-0-156.png

    Looks more like Jonny Bravo dancing 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Current model watching is like throwing 🎲 but instead of numbers there are d10 charts of every major model. 
    I will not be surprised if delayeritis majoris starts soon (not only cold spells get delayed or minimised)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    I should have held on to the Ω symbol a little longer... 

     

    gfsnh-0-156.png

    You might need to hold on to it a bit longer 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Imagine if GFS pub run wasn't just GFS pub run, and was in fact the first correction toward a better sustained Easterly and Winter pattern

    gfsnh-0-138.png?18

    This extended easterly looked like it was trending slightly on the 12z. Sort of a middle ground where the pattern flattens too much then settles on a middkw ground.

    This is your middle ground. Azores High doesnt quite flatten and theres just enough room over the top of the High for lower pressuers to run up over the high then head South east on the jet to.

    Low pressure into uk - battleground/slider period i spoke about around the 9th to 11th.

    Something i will keep an eye on the ensembles for

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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