Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks more like a turtle to me:

And welcome to the UK, too!

[Battleground Snow]

A few more lining up to be corkers in the ensembles at 240, should be a couple more flat liners that appear in deep FI. very positive trend today. Let's hope we can continue tomorrow.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well folks,what i will say is this...if we do manage to tap into an E/NETLY in the near future,we shouldn't be having a problem with the 850s...the cold looks much more intense and expansive on many ens now.

Quick update from Marco P regarding the GFS 12z which shows a less dramatic warming in a weeks time...more importantly is that the 12z was also showing extreme warming again during week 3 of January...now if that comes off it would surely spell the end of the Vortex....

DONT HAVE NIGHTMARES.. I think that was from crime watch

[Cryosphere.]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Well folks,what i will say is this...if we do manage to tap into an E/NETLY in the near future,we shouldn't be having a problem with the 850s...the cold looks much more intense and expansive on many ens now.

Quick update from Marco P regarding the GFS 12z which shows a less dramatic warming in a weeks time...more importantly is that the 12z was also showing extreme warming again during week 3 of January...now if that comes off it would surely spell the end of the Vortex....

DONT HAVE NIGHTMARES.. I think that was from crime watch

Book them..and they will come..

[Optimus Prime]

I think it should be mentioned (as per CET thread namely; Realitivistic that whilst the 14-day period up to the 10th hasn't been particularly news / record worthy it will have almost certainly been the coldest 14 day period since January 2013 (~ 0.8 C vs -0.4 C) and is comparable to the coldest 14 day period in 2018 (Feb/March 2018), 1.2 C

That is worthy of the very least a mention.

Next weeks mild looks to have been watered down to an extent at present.

Would be nice if this recent cold spell is a sort of calibration for what can be compared against for the rest of the winter. 

And at least this year there is some brutal (by modern standards) cold covering a large portion of Siberia. Might be worth keeping an eye on its westward progression.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Optimus Prime
Add feb/march statistic

[Cryosphere.]

8 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I think it should be mentioned (as per CET thread namely; Realitivistic that whilst the 14-day period up to the 10th hasn't been particularly news / record worthy it will have almost certainly been the coldest 14 day period since January 2013 (~ 0.8 C vs -0.4 C) and is comparable to the coldest 14 day period in 2018 (Feb/March 2018), 1.2 C

That is worthy of the very least a mention.

Next weeks mild looks to have been watered down to an extent at present.

Would be nice if this recent cold spell is a sort of calibration for what can be compared against for the rest of the winter. 

And at least this year there is some brutal (by modern standards) cold covering a large portion of Siberia. Might be worth keeping an eye on its westward progression.

 

 

 

 

Indeed OP that`s certainly noteworthy in my book..Much more more input needed day by day as it come`s; we are still in with a shout of something more polar on the horizon...

[SLEETY]

That gfs run was close to historic, with that bitterly cold Siberian air nearly making it across, unusual to see that depth of cold, in mid-winter anymore. 

I don't think it's going to be long before we get a "BOOM" run, and this place goes into meltdown. 

It's certainly been entertaining the model viewing over the past few week, and a great distraction from the wretched virus etc.. 

[Snowman.]

54 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That gfs run was close to historic, with that bitterly cold Siberian air nearly making it across, unusual to see that depth of cold, in mid-winter anymore. 

I don't think it's going to be long before we get a "BOOM" run, and this place goes into meltdown. 

It's certainly been entertaining the model viewing over the past few week, and a great distraction from the wretched virus etc.. 

 Very interesting days ahead, even if things don’t go our way I suspect the NH profile to be a sight to behold either way. 
 

Jan 2013 is my comparison don’t think the trip supports large gaping high pressure at least in a way that will benefit us, and we all know what wedges can make. 

[The Enforcer]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks more like a turtle to me:

Tortoise - always plodding towards us from T+384 and falling down the ECM trapdoor at T+120.

[That ECM]

As we are looking into fi for clues I’ll post this mean at T192. Which is an improvement from last nights. Still not much clearer though imo.

[Kasim Awan]

Good shift on 00z towards a strong Omega ridge. Ecm op is likely to pick up on this signal.

[swfc]

34 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As we are looking into fi for clues I’ll post this mean at T192. Which is an improvement from last nights. Still not much clearer though imo.

Morning. Yes a bit of a status quo this morning on the early runs. That said there is a sense imo that things on the nhp are about to explode in the not so distant future. Various attempts at a slack easterly continue atm so hopefully threw the next few days things become clearer and for the better

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Good shift on 00z towards a strong Omega ridge. Ecm op is likely to pick up on this signal.

I've looked at GFS and GFS para and they both look meh to me Kasim?

UKMO looks broadly similar at 144 too ?

We look to be losing the Euro low set up which is almost always bad news for coldies.

Hope you are correct of course.

Edited January 7, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Kasim Awan]

39 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As we are looking into fi for clues I’ll post this mean at T192. Which is an improvement from last nights. Still not much clearer though imo.

The difference over Greenland in terms of a more negative tilt is very pronounced. The upsteam impacts of this towards the UK are shown in many of the members. EC may bring in a Scandi high.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I've looked at GFS and GFS para and they both look meh to me Kasim?

UKMO looks broadly similar at 144 too ?

We look to be losing the Euro low set up which is almost always bad news for coldies.

Hope you are correct of course.

I'm not saying they aren't still "meh", rather that we have seen upgrades in that category to a pattern which has more potential to deliver. Not at 144h,,180h+ in the GEFS and GEM.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'm not saying they aren't still "meh", rather that we have seen upgrades in that category to a pattern which has more potential to deliver. Not at 144h,,180h+ in the GEFS and GEM.

Yes clearly a waiting game now to see if the cards fall in our favour.

Perhaps the last third of Jan as a landing point...

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes clearly a waiting game now to see if the cards fall in our favour.

Perhaps the last third of Jan as a landing point...

Yep. Mid Jan needs to be watched for volatility imo. Been reading the NW thread from Feb 2018. Hopefully those scenes will return soon.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yep. Mid Jan needs to be watched for volatility imo. Been reading the NW thread from Feb 2018. Hopefully those scenes will return soon.

Haha...

Dont want to take the thread O/T but yes that was amazing for Saddleworth.

Its nice to see optimism bristling in your posts Kasim.

I'm  less hopeful, the signal to a much more traditional flatter pattern has gained a lot of traction over the last 48 hours and we know all to well this can be an absolute pain to shift, we are now,IMO utterly reliant on this SSW.

I'm not saying a cold spell is impossible, but I would suggest a crappy westerly pattern is form horse for the foreseeable.

We will see...

 

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha...

Dont want to take the thread O/T but yes that was amazing for Saddleworth.

Its nice to see optimism bristling in your posts Kasim.

I'm  less hopeful, the signal to a much more traditional flatter pattern has gained a lot of traction over the last 48 hours and we know all to well this can be an absolute pain to shift, we are now,IMO utterly reliant on this SSW.

I'm not saying a cold spell is impossible, but I would suggest a crappy westerly pattern is form horse for the foreseeable.

We will see...

 

I am at a slightly different viewpoint. Here's to the EC00Z for tipping things in our favour.

[That ECM]

This is quite different from gfs and Ukmo.  Ukmo has the heights to the nw drift east between t120 and t144 where ecm builds them in situ. Interesting. 

Edited January 7, 2021 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

Upstream looks good, the heights to our South an absolute pain though.

[KTtom]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Upstream looks good, the heights to our South an absolute pain though.

Yea, until the Atlantic relents we have no chance, as soon as a ridge starts another low comes and flattens it! Everything else looks good, one of those times where we seem to be in the worst possible place in the western side of the northern hemeshere. 

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Upstream looks good, the heights to our South an absolute pain though.

High to the north/ nw dragging the cold from the ne battling the high from the south? Is the what the met are seeing? All very interesting but who knows. We watch with interest. One final point from me is that the low out west on t168 ecm heads sw at t192. Is this a sign of the reversal? I’ll leave it for brighter individuals than I.

To clarify one goes ne and the other goes sw.

Edited January 7, 2021 by That ECM

[Polar Maritime]

Snow moving South tonight and into the early hours of Friday morning..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Snow moving South tonight and into the early hours of Friday morning..

Hardly any snow by the time it gets to the South ?