Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[chris pawsey]

I'm still keeping the faith for a more widespread Midlands dumping. There is still the 18z, 0z and 6z for movement in the right direction

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

I'm still keeping the faith for a more widespread Midlands dumping. There is still the 18z, 0z and 6z for movement in the right direction

Id need to see gfs ukmo and ecm suggest further north east. I think the best place looks like being around stroud. 

[Sweatyman]

19 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon

yes please icon. Dont bloody change again!!

[sheikhy]

Well well well!!at the last minute gfs 12z LOOKS like it gives the east mids a good dumping

[Andypvfc]

6 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

yes please icon. Dont bloody change again!!

Crap for North of Stoke. Needs be a bit further North pls lol

[shunthebartlett92]

Im not giving up with regards tomorrow, but i do think we won't truly know about later this evening about how its heading. A lucky spot will get a good 10cm or so, at the moment id say herefordshire/gloucestershire look best poised but i think the midlands are still in with a shot. 

[MKN]

12z and 6z gfs

[Snowshine]

The GFS and ICON are so far the most favourable for snow across the region, and APERGE/AROME are by far the least favourable. I really just think it is a matter of waiting for later updates to get more clarity on just how far north/south this snow will be.

Edited January 23, 2021 by xSnow

[snowangel32]

GFS 12Z looks decent.

 

[Midlander]

More pics of GFS 12Z, I can understand why Sheiky is happy with the update! But obviously will change, having a quick look through the models I don't think most of them have accurately predicted the timing and location of precipitation currently approaching west Ireland.

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[Eskimo]

In the next 6 hours the system will be in full range of the radar. That's when it's possible to see if the models have grasped its position at the early stages. 

[Dancerwithwings]

12z Gfs is pretty much the same as the icon

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

In the next 6 hours the system will be in full range of the radar. That's when it's possible to see if the models have grasped its position at the early stages. 

Yea until the 18z and the radar at around midnight there no way of really knowing which model has got it correct. At least the various solutions show its not set in stone for any one location as of the 12z outputs anyway. 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

More pics of GFS 12Z, I can understand why Sheiky is happy with the update! But obviously will change, having a quick look through the models I don't think most of them have accurately predicted the timing, intensity, location of precipitation currently approaching west Ireland.

 

Leicester is bullseye on that chart!!and if you look at the current 12z gfs and compare it with the current radar they are absolutely identical for 15.00!!

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

In the next 6 hours the system will be in full range of the radar. That's when it's possible to see if the models have grasped its position at the early stages. 

Yep we should know by the radar where it sets up and the likely pivot point. Whoever hits the Pivot point hits the jackpot.

[Eskimo]

I remember a similar system a couple of years ago gave Swindon about 6" of snow. 

[andy_leics22]

Aahahaha! I was following a heavy shower on the radar, when it reached here, I rushed to the window to see it falling, looked out, and it was rain with a bit of sleet thrown in  

 

I give up.

[MattStoke]

Got what looks like the final snow shower of the day and maybe of this cold spell.

[Summer of 95]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

I remember a similar system a couple of years ago gave Swindon about 6" of snow. 

That would have been 1st Feb 2019, it was supposed to snow in the Midlands but never did

[sheikhy]

Im not even bothering with the models for tomorrows snow!!from here on in its radar watch!!!!

[Ryukai]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Got what looks like the final snow shower of the day and maybe of this cold spell.

Missed me, right on the edge of it too, just a barely there faint dust that melts so fast you can't even see it touch the ground.  

[nobble]

Not faired great today 

not faired great last night 

if this comes in 3,s won’t be any snow round here tomo 

...... it’s the hope what kills ya

[DIS1970]

Too difficult and complex to forecast, best to window watch - it's the UK remember, for the sake of 50 miles or so who knows when, where, what and how much you'll get.

Edited January 23, 2021 by DIS1970

[markw2680]

Radar watch is the way to go, no crap apps. There’s going to be some very happy people tomorrow but also a lot of dummies being tossed about I’m afraid. I’d say redditch is about the thick of it personally and about 50 miles max north east of that that could catch it. Just my opinion though of course 

[markw2680]

Bit of sledging fun up the wasely hills this afternoon