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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Case in point. Models showed little in 2013 and the radar ended up looking like this from a pretty similar setup.

    EE298766-337F-417D-BD84-37644C9A713E.jpeg

    Very good point however the effect from the low to the south east was still relevant then as you can see a dry area. Hopefully it's either in a similar or further south east position this week. 

    Edited by MKN
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    Met Office  forecast for Hereford  this morning,  overcast, 10% of precipitation. Reality.... VID_624930823_123751_206.mp4

    It’s pretty bad here tbh, the pics are from my bedroom window lol

    Been out for a walk needed to  sit down 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Derbyshire
    On 04/02/2021 at 17:46, MattStoke said:

    Fully expect snow showers to develop far more widely and frequently than any model will show. They always do in this setup. East Midlands should do well, particularly but not only where streamers set up. More patchy further west. There is though still the chance of some longer spells of snow for a time Saturday night/Sunday morning.

    🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 yes that’s me then 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
    1 hour ago, chris pawsey said:

    And that's what you have to do in streamer situations... Hope!! You could be 20 miles away from a dumping... but you could be the sweet spot!

    Think I prefer frontal snow... more guaranteed (sort of) 

    I agree I remember 2013 and that was an easterly and in the regionals someone called it the cov  blob amazingly we had more snow from that than any of the other!!

    anyone else remember the cov blob.? 😂 

    Edited by Fozfoster
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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    43 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Fantastic ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!this is how i expected the 144 hour chart to look on ukmo but i dunno what happened lol!!!also winds are east north east from 48 hours to 144 hours so more areas getting in the act for snow showers!!!ukmo a bit to south east right now!

    We need to be looking more in the next 3/4 days for troughs and upgrades rather than worrying about T168 mate. It says a lot that this time period is the hottest of topics is weather at Day 7-8. We've spent weeks working towards the next 5 days and now we have arrived it's all as flat as a pancake for our area. 

    No doubt about it there will be a few showers and probably a surprise or 2 - but significant, this will not be for our area.

    I'd sooner take a large snow event that lasted a day and turned back to rain/melted - than I would tonight's ECM, which is dry and then instead of being in the game for a battleground snowfall, we stay cold and frosty. Abysmal outcome. We might as well have had a Bartlett.

    All this hype and weeks of chasing, for what is, in effect going to feel like a UK high for our neck of the woods.

    It's cack. 

    Edited by PolarWarsaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

    We need to be looking more in the next 3/4 days for troughs and upgrades rather than worrying about T168 mate. It says it all that this time period is the hottest of topics is weather at Day 7-8. We've spent weeks working towards the next 5 days and now we have arrived it's all as flat as a pancake for our area. 

    No doubt about it there will be a few showers and probably a surprise or 2 - but significant, this will not be for our area.

    I'd sooner take a large snow event that lasted a day and turned back to rain/melted - than I would tonight's ECM, which is dry and then instead of being in the game for a battleground snowfall, we stay cold and frosty. Abysmal outcome. We might as well have had a Bartlett.

    All this hype and weeks of chasing, for what is, in effect going to feel like a UK high for our neck of the woods.

    It's cack. 

    Just like last weekend’s low was going to completely miss the Midlands and not get past Bristol 😉 Didn’t deliver much but you were miles off with that prediction  (literally).

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Just like last weekend’s low was going to completely miss the Midlands and not get past Bristol 😉 Didn’t deliver much but you were miles off with that prediction  (literally).

    There was absolutely zero snow here last weekend mate, certainly not what was being shown/discussed at the time we were talking about it. 

    I'm sure there will be the odd shower that makes it here and a couple of places will receive a coating, but it's really not worth all the hype/discussion/effort/energy that's been put into this entire spell.

    For me, I'm just looking at a snowy breakdown now. If we can squeeze a trough or front in the mean time, fantastic. 

    Even 2010 wasn't great here - our best and most productive set up are battleground events. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow storms any severe weather
  • Location: Leicester
    46 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Fantastic ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!this is how i expected the 144 hour chart to look on ukmo but i dunno what happened lol!!!also winds are east north east from 48 hours to 144 hours so more areas getting in the act for snow showers!!!ukmo a bit to south east right now!

    How sheikhy how we looking after today’s models mate ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Case in point. Models showed little in 2013 and the radar ended up looking like this from a pretty similar setup.

    EE298766-337F-417D-BD84-37644C9A713E.jpeg

    And one ended up with continued snowfall for 24hrs and 25cm 🤗

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    4 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    There was absolutely zero snow here last weekend mate, certainly not what was being shown/discussed at the time we were talking about it. 

    I'm sure there will be the odd shower that makes it here and a couple of places will receive a coating, but it's really not worth all the hype/discussion/effort/energy that's been put into this entire spell.

    For me, I'm just looking at a snowy breakdown now. If we can squeeze a trough or front in the mean time, fantastic. 

    Even 2010 wasn't great here - our best and most productive set up are battleground events. 

    Didn't you get Snow from Storm Emma mate, I know it was sort of around the South of Staffs, that it stopped and missed me and Matt in the North of the region.

    I just hope we don't get one of them again. If we are going get a battleground situation I'd rather it stall over the entire region and give us a massive dump, rather than it miss us to the North or a Snow to rain in a day event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    20 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    There was absolutely zero snow here last weekend mate, certainly not what was being shown/discussed at the time we were talking about it. 

    I'm sure there will be the odd shower that makes it here and a couple of places will receive a coating, but it's really not worth all the hype/discussion/effort/energy that's been put into this entire spell.

    For me, I'm just looking at a snowy breakdown now. If we can squeeze a trough or front in the mean time, fantastic. 

    Even 2010 wasn't great here - our best and most productive set up are battleground events. 

    Well 2010 was good here! and I'm only 9 miles to your NW

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    21 minutes ago, Sully79 said:

    How sheikhy how we looking after today’s models mate ?

    Looking okay maybe not the stupid amounts from the other day but as is the case with showers we gona need some luck lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    16 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

    Didn't you get Snow from Storm Emma mate, I know it was sort of around the South of Staffs, that it stopped and missed me and Matt in the North of the region.

    I just hope we don't get one of them again. If we are going get a battleground situation I'd rather it stall over the entire region and give us a massive dump, rather than it miss us to the North or a Snow to rain in a day event.

    did well here from storm Emma! thursday 1st, then more snow late Fri 2nd

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow storms any severe weather
  • Location: Leicester
    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Looking okay maybe not the stupid amounts from the other day but as is the case with showers we gona need some luck lol!!

    Good stuff thanks il keep everything crossed then maybe we might get an upgrade 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it
  • Location: Belper
    36 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    We need to be looking more in the next 3/4 days for troughs and upgrades rather than worrying about T168 mate. It says a lot that this time period is the hottest of topics is weather at Day 7-8. We've spent weeks working towards the next 5 days and now we have arrived it's all as flat as a pancake for our area. 

    No doubt about it there will be a few showers and probably a surprise or 2 - but significant, this will not be for our area.

    I'd sooner take a large snow event that lasted a day and turned back to rain/melted - than I would tonight's ECM, which is dry and then instead of being in the game for a battleground snowfall, we stay cold and frosty. Abysmal outcome. We might as well have had a Bartlett.

    All this hype and weeks of chasing, for what is, in effect going to feel like a UK high for our neck of the woods.

    It's cack. 

    Oh dear someone is in a bad mood! :-).

    I think these words might come back to haunt you tbh. "Cack" i don't think it will be :-).

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    5 minutes ago, Coastal Eddy said:

    It's even shaped like a shield !

     

    That has to be the most weird warning ive evver seen!!im surre we got more than forecasted in the end!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl

    I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a snow grain here. Yes, just the one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    That has to be the most weird warning ive evver seen!!im surre we got more than forecasted in the end!!

    In 2018 here we got about 10-12cms however some areas had very little snow whilst there was areas with large drifts over a foot or more deep. 20miles to the south there was probably about 20cms. 

    Screenshot_20210205_211950.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    53 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    There was absolutely zero snow here last weekend mate, certainly not what was being shown/discussed at the time we were talking about it. 

    I'm sure there will be the odd shower that makes it here and a couple of places will receive a coating, but it's really not worth all the hype/discussion/effort/energy that's been put into this entire spell.

    For me, I'm just looking at a snowy breakdown now. If we can squeeze a trough or front in the mean time, fantastic. 

    Even 2010 wasn't great here - our best and most productive set up are battleground events. 

    I agree the hype that goes into the chase, now its arrived, and we're hoping for a covering from that small area sat night because of Sundays snow to the south it's killed it for us, however, troughs do tend to form last minute and I remember people saying Dec 2010 looked dry. We no what  happened there. 

    I'd give it a few days, Monday to Wed id expect there to be substantial developments leading up the days

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    I remember at the beginning of the 2018 event when the BBC forecast it to be dry and it left a lot of people bemused and wondering if it wasn’t going to produce anything 🤦🏻 

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

     

    Like anyone else here I'm always hoping for lots of snow, but even if it's more frosty than snowy, I'd still take it as it'll at least be seasonal and would help keep the CET down. I like Winters to be cold as well as snowy. I'm still hopeful we'll get some decent snow sometime in the next few weeks anyway. Not that we've done too badly in that regard already. We've certainly had worse.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    50 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

    Oh dear someone is in a bad mood! :-).

    I think these words might come back to haunt you tbh. "Cack" i don't think it will be :-).

     Somehow I doubt these words will come back to bite him I think he is spot-on I think in fact those who have really hyped up this cold snap will have egg on the faces

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    Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)

    Expect no snow 

    then everything is a bonus 👍🏻👍🏻❄️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
    1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    We need to be looking more in the next 3/4 days for troughs and upgrades rather than worrying about T168 mate. It says a lot that this time period is the hottest of topics is weather at Day 7-8. We've spent weeks working towards the next 5 days and now we have arrived it's all as flat as a pancake for our area. 

    No doubt about it there will be a few showers and probably a surprise or 2 - but significant, this will not be for our area.

    I'd sooner take a large snow event that lasted a day and turned back to rain/melted - than I would tonight's ECM, which is dry and then instead of being in the game for a battleground snowfall, we stay cold and frosty. Abysmal outcome. We might as well have had a Bartlett.

    All this hype and weeks of chasing, for what is, in effect going to feel like a UK high for our neck of the woods.

    It's cack. 

    I do not understand some of the negative posts today on this regional thread or on the model thread. 

     At times I've given up reading through it all  , every single cold spell in the last 10 years has delivered some decent snow at least in these parts,

    generally from atlantic - troughs/fronts some description.  Most of them have been snowy breakdowns at least.

     

    Models especially precipitation need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

    Get the cold in first. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
    1 hour ago, Gustywind said:

    You can only go by what the models are suggesting though, anything else has no evidence to back it up, of course the models could change & throw up a surprise or two, and personally I think that’s quite possible, but equally you can’t ignore the fact that aside from Sat night, there’s little showing currently.

    As for experience, I’ve lived through plenty of easterlies & plenty have been cold but dry, I remember the Feb 86 one in particular & how irritating it was day after day, hearing about snow showers in the East, while in the Midlands we stayed frosty but very dry!

    Unfortunately, Worcestershire is not in a good location for an Easterly 🙁 The best scenario is if a channel low can come along and throw up a band of PPN with it. Snow showers won't usually amount to that much, that far West. That isn't to say that you can't get lucky from a streamer, though.

     

    The Midlands is a wide area. It can stretch from Nottinghamshire all the way down to Worcestershire. Some parts of the Midlands will do well from this. Those as far East in the Midlands as possible will have the best chance.

    Edited by andy_leics22
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