Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

26 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Looking like a very sweet spot under the triangle of Redditch , Worcester and Stratford for tomorrow 

Nice so let's hope your right Mr Morgan

[Eskimo]

Latest ICON has it a smidgen further north as well. Sweet spot being the West Midlands again, although the true pivot area is the London home counties. 

 

Snow by midnight Monday shows that slight shunt. 5-15cm widely. 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eskimo

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Latest ICON has it a smidgen further north as well. Sweet spot being the West Midlands again, although the true pivot area is the London home counties. 


 

So close to me I can taste it! I’ll be able to watch the snow falling at the end of my street at this rate!

[nobble]

36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like it could be a very close call for snow here tomorrow, although I think it will stay to my south.

Took a long walk from Longton to Apedale. Another brilliant winters day.

Fab pics

your area has been blessed by the snow gods again

[sheikhy]

Right big news!!!!ecm gone much further north!!gives midlands 5 to 10cms of snow!!!!

[Eskimo]

Yup. Birmingham hitting the grand prize. 


 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Right big news!!!!ecm gone much further north!!gives midlands 5 to 10cms of snow!!!!

Good news is the 12z ECM looks to have the best grip on the forward speed of the front as well at the moment. Most models are a good 2-3hrs too slow in the forward motion.

Also note the N-S slant. This suggests to me any pivot is going to happen further east than some models expect at the moment which should allow more of the Midlands to enter the game as well.

Just a little observation from someone in the SE for you guys up there. Its reduce marginatlity down here somewhat and gives you guys up there a better chance, so its win-win really.

Edited January 23, 2021 by kold weather

[nobble]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Right big news!!!!ecm gone much further north!!gives midlands 5 to 10cms of snow!!!!

So hope it’s right

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wow, what a difference on FAX! yesterdays runs had front in the channel! now over the Midlands

[high ground birmingham]

On the latest 12zs, seems Birmingham is in the prime spot. Let’s see. It’s going to be radar watching for all of the Midlands really

[MattStoke]

[RobR]

Today has been interesting with some beefy showers around but a little warm to settle.

 

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wow, what a difference on FAX! yesterdays runs had front in the channel! now over the Midlands

Bit more optimistic today ayy

[nobble]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wow, what a difference on FAX! yesterdays runs had front in the channel! now over the Midlands

Be nice to get short term upgrades for a change

[Shezale coventry]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Omg if this is correct birmingham and coventry will be hit harddddd!!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Good news is the 12z ECM looks to have the best grip on the forward speed of the front as well at the moment. Most models are a good 2-3hrs too slow in the forward motion.

Also note the N-S slant. This suggests to me any pivot is going to happen further east than some models expect at the moment which should allow more of the Midlands to enter the game as well.

Just a little observation from someone in the SE for you guys up there.

In terms of the northward push gfs seems to have lead the way today and ecm has followed!!i would not be surprised if it ends up further north now!!icon has gone north as well!!

[sheikhy]

Leicester seems to get into the big totals as well!!the last minute shift north makes me think this could end up even further north and gfs has lead the way today!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Bit more optimistic today ayy

could it be like 10 Dec '17? W Midlans over a foot, here was half that but still great event

[MKN]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

In terms of the northward push gfs seems to have lead the way today and ecm has followed!!i would not be surprised if it ends up further north now!!icon has gone north as well!!

By the time we get to the 18z output should be able to compare with radar to have a good idea. Lets hope the gfs and ecm are right 

[beefy201]

23 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Nice so let's hope your right Mr Morgan

No often wrong when it comes to snow am I ? 

[beefy201]

4 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Omg if this is correct birmingham and coventry will be hit harddddd!!

That’s not a hard hit unless you like a sprinkle lol 

[Shezale coventry]

1 minute ago, beefy201 said:

That’s not a hard hit unless you like a sprinkle lol 

You were saying...??

[sheikhy]

Sweet spot seems to be between brummy and leicester!!!

[smethwickgg102]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Thanks Sorry..My wife keeps talking at me..you would think she knows better when their is snow on the horizon!!  
 

ECM is awesome for a lot of people. It’s also been very consistent these past few days re tomorrow! 

Just seen this in the MOD thread, I'd take that

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could it be like 10 Dec '17? W Midlans over a foot, here was half that but still great event

Remember that we’ll, it was another stall event