Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Andypvfc]

In all seriousness though Stoke is closer to Manchester than Brum, so Matt would prob find the North West thread more accurate.

[weirpig]

As matt said  Arome further North

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

As matt said  Arome further North

Cold and wet

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Cold and wet

Possibly  yes   High ground favoured    it does turn to snow  but very very marginal      may be a change on the 0z

Stoke in a decent place

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[MattStoke]

Doesn’t look too bad but yes, a bit of height might be needed.

[Snowshine]

18Z is disappointing, most models are suggesting that precipitation will fall as rain. There is another day left, but I personally don't think this will deliver widespread snow.

Edited January 28, 2021 by xSnow

[weirpig]

In regards to the front    thats one huge move north  compared to its last run   Dps  show a rain to  sleet/ wet  snow event

Edited January 29, 2021 by weirpig

[Snowy L]

Will met office have to remove or at least hugely reduce the area of their warning map? They seemed very confident of accumulations, didn't even mention 1-2cm, went straight for 3-7cm.

[cyclonic happiness]

ay.dibDoes a 30% chance of precipitation and not a single symbol for anything falling from the sky tomorrow, really justify a yellow warning for this area?

Also, why is the metoffice website showing dry all day tomorrow when we all know 100% that it's going to at least rain?

I'm starting to wonder whether they are losing the plot??

Edited January 29, 2021 by cyclonic happiness

[Gustywind]

26 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

ay.dibDoes a 30% chance of precipitation and not a single symbol for anything falling from the sky tomorrow, really justify a yellow warning for this area?

Also, why is the metoffice website showing dry all day tomorrow when we all know 100% that it's going to at least rain?

I'm starting to wonder whether they are losing the plot??

Midlands Today saying rain moving up from SW, risk of a little wintriness over Shropshire Hills only? 

[MattStoke]

Still waiting for the big southward shift many have said will happen, but at the same time it doesn’t look it will reach me. Looks like south Staffordshire will be the northern limit.

[Gustywind]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Still waiting for the big southward shift many have said will happen, but at the same time it doesn’t look it will reach me. Looks like south Staffordshire will be the northern limit.

We thought that last Sunday though & you were pretty much in the sweet spot in the end! Think this could surprise again but worried not quite cold enough for a repeat of last week,

[MattStoke]

ECM still showing a snow risk for Sunday but other models remain uninterested. 

Then the early part of next week could bring some snow risks as Atlantic frontal systems push in but it all looks transient and messy.

[MKN]

If whats being shown long term in the models comes off the next 5 days will look pretty tame in comparison...

[shunthebartlett92]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

If whats being shown long term in the models comes off the next 5 days will look pretty tame in comparison...

I think this is the key here, longer term trends look a lot better drawing in those bitter easterly winds as pressure builds over scandinavia, look at those uppers 

[the lad sharp]

25 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM still showing a snow risk for Sunday but other models remain uninterested. 

Then the early part of next week could bring some snow risks as Atlantic frontal systems push in but it all looks transient and messy.

After many years of watching these forums I’ve learnt one thing in particular. If the ‘experts’ say it will be marginal, it will  fall as rain. 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, the lad sharp said:

After many years of watching these forums I’ve learnt one thing in particular. If the ‘experts’ say it will be marginal, it will  fall as rain. 

I find it’s often the opposite here. I’ve lost count of the number of times snow has predicted for the hills/Peak District only and Stoke has seen it. Stoke tends to do very well in these marginal setups, as we have done this winter. 

Tomorrow’s system looks like missing me (Can’t win them all!), and I think the central West Midlands into Wales look best placed. It’s a close one though so I will keeping an eye on the radar.

Next week looks messy. Maybe some transient snow for some of us before milder air moves in (Less mild than this week), but further ahead it looks colder, potentially much colder.

[sheikhy]

The models look seriously cold and snowy this morning!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I find it’s often the opposite here. I’ve lost count of the number of times snow has predicted for the hills/Peak District only and Stoke has seen it. Stoke tends to do very well in these marginal setups, as we have done this winter. 

Tomorrow’s system looks like missing me (Can’t win them all!), and I think the central West Midlands into Wales look best placed. It’s a close one though so I will keeping an eye on the radar.

Next week looks messy. Maybe some transient snow for some of us before milder air moves in (Less mild than this week), but further ahead it looks colder, potentially much colder.

Think tomorrow is trending messier, wet snow at best under 200m, means setup is further north, sheikhy only in FI it looks snowy

Edited January 29, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Think tomorrow is trending messier, wet snow at best under 200m, means setup is further north, sheikhy only in FI it looks snowy

Looking more like rain to snow rather than just snow. Still think the central West Midlands and Mid Wales look best place.

Sunday is interesting. Either the ECM is consistently off on one or it’s going to beat every other model.

Edited January 29, 2021 by MattStoke

[shunthebartlett92]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Think tomorrow is trending messier, wet snow at best under 200m, means setup is further north, sheikhy only in FI it looks snowy

Yeah im thinking much the same, but it is a fine line, as long as the precip is in the region its still all to play for

[sheikhy]

Hows the snow chances for tomorrow?!any 00z models keep it further north?!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the snow chances for tomorrow?!any 00z models keep it further north?!

bbc weather goes for nothing tomorrow, but snow on Sunday, but it's based on latest EC

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbc weather goes for nothing tomorrow, but snow on Sunday, but it's based on latest EC

Ecm has been pretty bullish about sunday snow but you get that feeling  it will push south!!!!

[RobR]

Met Office screwed the chances plumping for such high amounts so early on. Ah well!