Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not a great EC, trend is south

[Jayfromcardiff]

I think the Birmingham area should get quite a bit of snow on Saturday. With all these southward trends at this rate none of us will get any snow lol.

[MattStoke]

Nearly time to write this one off for up here I think. Central West Midlands into Wales should do well.

[shunthebartlett92]

MO forecasts going increasingly with the old ‘wintry mix’, I can see marginality start to increasingly rear its ugly head. Still think precip will reach Birmingham but it’s what falls that is crucial. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Nearly time to write this one off for up here I think. Central West Midlands into Wales should do well.

Aye, think so, but bound to miss some events

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, think so, but bound to miss some events

Can’t win them all!

ECM again goes for further snow on Sunday but further south than the 00z with Stoke the northern limit again.

[Snowy L]

31 minutes ago, MKN said:

Shift southward so far today however the same happened fri just gone only to then show northward movements the day before. Even on the day itself precip can be north or south 20-30 miles different to what charts are showing. All to play for. 

Yes it was only really in the last 24 hours that the northern corrections happened last weekend. Yes I'm clutching lol.

[weirpig]

Ecm isnt a bad run  to be honest   would bank that now.  Amount of snow is always difficult to call.  If we are withing 50miles  on friday night   there is a chance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t win them all!

ECM again goes for further snow on Sunday but further south than the 00z with Stoke the northern limit again.

Always same with frontal/sider setups, W Midlands always best placed, fax though slightly further North than earlier one, kinda 2 fronts

[MattStoke]

Model thread always makes me laugh.

I get criticised for saying I didn’t like the ECM 6z because apparently I should be happy that others might get my favourite weather while I miss out.

Someone else calls the UKMO great because it brings snow for the south and no-one criticises them for wanting to deprive other areas of snow.

Think I’ll stick to this thread. I always end up arguing in the model thread.

[weirpig]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Model thread always makes me laugh.

I get criticised for saying I didn’t like the ECM 6z because apparently I should be happy that others might get my favourite weather while I miss out.

Someone else calls the UKMO great because it brings snow for the south and no-one criticises them for wanting to deprive other areas of snow.

Think I’ll stick to this thread. I always end up arguing in the model thread.

Massive southern bias   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's Nick Sussex I cannot work out? he says 'we' need this 'we need that etc, and he lives in SW France? always wondered why he is bothered what the weather does in another country?

[andy_leics22]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Model thread always makes me laugh.

I get criticised for saying I didn’t like the ECM 6z because apparently I should be happy that others might get my favourite weather while I miss out.

Someone else calls the UKMO great because it brings snow for the south and no-one criticises them for wanting to deprive other areas of snow.

Think I’ll stick to this thread. I always end up arguing in the model thread.

Stay in here bud, safer.

[shunthebartlett92]

Yh I haven’t posted in the MOD for sometime, prefer the local flavour here. Learning it all on the masters course anyway! Stratospheric warming is definitely an interesting one though but seems North America is often favoured as the vortex drops further west.

[ISAAC]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

It's Nick Sussex I cannot work out? he says 'we' need this 'we need that etc, and he lives in SW France? always wondered why he is bothered what the weather does in another country?

[Andypvfc]

And even that looks like missing South Cheshire / North Staffs lol

Same old, either too far North or too far South lol

[MattStoke]

I’ll just pin all my hopes on Netweather’s in-house model

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, MattStoke said:

I’ll just pin all my hopes on Netweather’s in-house model

wasn't that accurate for last Sun?

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wasn't that accurate for last Sun?

It was. I believe it draws data from the GFS so will be impacted by what the GFS shows.

[Andypvfc]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wasn't that accurate for last Sun?

Yeah and it still missed Newcastle under Lyme. Lol

[nobble]

Time will tell I suppose 

correct me if I’m wrong (I’m sure someone will) but the yellow warning seems a lot earlier than last weekends one ?

Are they more sure of the area of snow this time ? 

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Model thread always makes me laugh.

I get criticised for saying I didn’t like the ECM 6z because apparently I should be happy that others might get my favourite weather while I miss out.

Someone else calls the UKMO great because it brings snow for the south and no-one criticises them for wanting to deprive other areas of snow.

Think I’ll stick to this thread. I always end up arguing in the model thread.

I try to avoid the MAD thread, though I find it better to read these days without Murr. Hated that he would always get his wish for lows like tomorrow correcting South last minute. Tbf since he left it's been northern corrections, long may it continue.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Snowy L

[Snowshine]

My main concern for Saturday is whether it will be cold enough for snow, and more importantly whether it will settle on the ground. The most recent snow warning shows a high level of uncertainty, and is currently a low-level yellow warning.

[andy_leics22]

5 minutes ago, xSnow said:

My main concern for Saturday is whether it will be cold enough for snow, and more importantly whether it will settle on the ground. The most recent snow warning shows a high level of uncertainty, and is currently a low-level yellow warning.

That's my concern, also.

 

It's a balmy 10c out there at the moment! The 850 line of colder air is on a knife edge. I think if the PPN is there as the morning wears on, the colder air should dig in and bring snow with it. I definitely think elevation will be important. Anywhere above 200m will have a greater chance of seeing snow. It may be a sleety mix at low levels, but we shall see. Hoping for another 5cm or so

Edited January 28, 2021 by andy_leics22

[snowangel32]

Definitely seems to be trending South but can't complain if it misses me more than satisfied so far. 12 snowfalls 8 lying days of snow and countless frost's and air frost's thrown in. Think South mids will be in for a few cms but the last one went North after looking like it was going South so who knows I guess.