Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Some snow remaining, still quite a lot around hospital area, but feels mild today, not got that snow/cold feel

 

[MattStoke]

Looks like a shower has done the impossible and made it over the Peak District and is approaching me. Expecting rain though.

[phil b]

Lots of showers gathering to the northeast now, dew point is dropping slowly, reached 2.1c earlier now at 1.2c wet bulb 2.0c

Edited January 4, 2021 by phil b

[WinterWilf]

3 hours ago, Andypvfc said:

Not sure why everyone saying its been a poor start to winter. Its been a great start for us in Stoke.

Because alot of other places have had rain or sleet. Or a couple of snow showers that melted instantly. 

[Dancerwithwings]

The GFS 12z is showing itself for Friday as an almost all day snow event....we’ll see

[Ryukai]

31 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like a shower has done the impossible and made it over the Peak District and is approaching me. Expecting rain though.

I can confirm the rain ?  

[sheikhy]

850s of -7.5 right now and yup you guessed it rain again!!!!when it is cold enough to snow later on i bet the showers would have all dried up lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

850s of -7.5 right now and yup you guessed it rain again!!!!when it is cold enough to snow later on i bet the showers would have all dried up lol

needs to drop around 2.5 degrees! Friday best chance 850's can be higher, staying cold Sat and Sun too, so very little thaw if we get lucky

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

A blocking high over the Urals and eastern europe is quite a typical setup during a negative NAO phase, ive done a presentation on it for Uni, with it being more suppressed during a positive NAO phase. With that in mind, i think its more than just the pressure setup this year causes the warmer air to our east.

Yes but not a blocking high positioned which drags up warm air at 850hpa level, my heart sinks when I see a big yellow high on the top right hand corner of weather charts. It's something we are seeing more and more of and it's why Scandinavia struggles to get true Arctic air and the Baltic sea getting less sea ice as time goes on. If the high is more 'blue/pale green/green' on the thickness charts then that is moree potential as it means there is true cold air at height wrapped around it. 

This is more of a problem in early winter time, obviously the issue recedes during mid and latter part of winter and then returns in March again which starts to bring a early rapid retreat of snow cover in March. Sadly you would imagine what should be cold set ups becoming less cold in a warming world and this chilly snap is perhaps an example of that. 

[shunthebartlett92]

3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yes but not a blocking high positioned which drags up warm air at 850hpa level, my heart sinks when I see a big yellow high on the top right hand corner of weather charts. It's something we are seeing more and more of and it's why Scandinavia struggles to get true Arctic air and the Baltic sea getting less sea ice as time goes on. If the high is more 'blue/pale green/green' on the thickness charts then that is moree potential as it means there is true cold air at height wrapped around it. 

This is more of a problem in early winter time, obviously the issue recedes during mid and latter part of winter and then returns in March again which starts to bring a early rapid retreat of snow cover in March. Sadly you would imagine what should be cold set ups becoming less cold in a warming world and this chilly snap is perhaps an example of that. 

I think the record heat in siberia earlier this year must've counted for something, as it's obviously contributed towards a warmer landmass overall, and when a blocking high dominates, very little air is circulating and it stays just as it is. I just its just the circumstances as with any blocking pattern of how warm the landmass is to start with. As you say, a warming world just causes less frigid air in circulation, and minimises our chances of drawing in very cold upper level air as it is moderated on its way to us anyway.

[MattStoke]

GFS still going for that streamer tomorrow but the accumulation charts show how the Peak District decimates it.

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The GFS 12z is showing itself for Friday as an almost all day snow event....we’ll see

The Met office say that it'll be "fizzling out as it moves south" , so don't get your hopes up. It's been a pretty disappointing cold spell

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The Met office say that it'll be "fizzling out as it moves south" , so don't get your hopes up. It's been a pretty disappointing cold spell

bbc a bit crap for snow, tomorrow mostly rain at low levels, and wintry showers Wed, and still banging dry drum for Friday

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The Met office say that it'll be "fizzling out as it moves south" , so don't get your hopes up. It's been a pretty disappointing cold spell

Yes I know I was just stating what the GFS 12z was saying

So far this winter, I’ve had an hour and that was gone by the morning

An all day’a...we are not that lucky

[Gord]

Just watched the Met Office forecast for the week ahead.

Pretty uninspiring really.

Some rain, sleet or snow around, but mostly dry and cold.

Then a hint of milder air going into the weekend as the high re-orientates itself. (Potentially a settled, decent weekend if the high can position itself correctly)

And that's it really. Looks like for those of us who were lucky enough to get a covering of snow last week, that's it for now.

Thanks to everyone for their insight and contributions in this thread over the past week. I'm sorry that not everyone could share reports of snow.

See you for the next one...let's hope it's not too far away.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Gord

[MKN]

Looks like we just about have the right parameters to see some snow, Andddddd its dry. 

For those still hoping for something this is about the best... For 1am.

Edited January 4, 2021 by MKN

[Polar Maritime]

Wet snow here now

 

[sheikhy]

26 minutes ago, MKN said:

Looks like we just about have the right parameters to see some snow, Andddddd its dry. 

For those still hoping for something this is about the best... For 1am.

Anything for tomorrow mate?

[MKN]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Anything for tomorrow mate?

Not a lot and looks like any showers could be rain again depending on intensity.

[#windysnow#]

29 minutes ago, MKN said:

Looks like we just about have the right parameters to see some snow, Andddddd its dry. 

For those still hoping for something this is about the best... For 1am.

where does Hinckley and Ashby sit on that map, looks to be quite close?

[Polar Maritime]

Heavy snow now

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, any showers tonight through to wed look like just rain at low levels, chance of a dusting Friday, then 2 very cold possible ice days to follow on UKMO

EC and GFS next mon looks like repeat of today, less cold 5 degrees or so

[MKN]

6 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:

where does Hinckley and Ashby sit on that map, looks to be quite close?

It would be close possibly just missing Hinckley to the North.

[#windysnow#]

1 minute ago, MKN said:It would be close possibly just missing Hinckley to the North.

cheers might be ok for Ashby then

[WillinGlossop]

Moderate snow shower atm 0c