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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    Living up in the far north east of the region, I'm still hoping to see something out of this cold spell other than freezing my wotsits off when walking the dog!

    Been around long enough to have seen many similar events to that which we're expecting end of next week and can remember several where the forecast was for the front to pass through and turn to rain whereas in reality they often didn't even reach us! Of course the opposite is also true but until the cold is well and truly in, I think the models may well struggle to get a handle on what's likely to happen, so will not be taking much notice of them until Mon/Tues for the likely solution. As others have posted, even if it does break down next weekend, it looks very much as though the cold will be back again not too long after.

    As for the next few days, I'm not sure this weekend has been resolved yet with several short range models showing a period of snow at least as far west as Bristol if not further overnight into Sunday. This is no dry easterly setting up either, especially down here, so I would expect to see surprise features and disturbances pop up at short notice, any of which could easily make it over to the West Country in the strong flow.

    So, plenty to keep the interest going and hopefully that front pushing up from the south Mon/Tues will make it far enough north to give all of you over in the far south and west a good dumping of snow¬†ūü§ěūüôā

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

    Remember December 2010- weekend before Christmas with possible channel low? Which slid South and whilst we got a dusting and little more?

    I'd expect much the same this week...

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole , Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & T-Storms
  • Location: Poole , Dorset
    20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    For next week, I'd rather have the weather we have right now, sunny and 11¬įC rather than cold and overcast. Milder from Thursday with yet more rain!

    Must be the Purbeck microclimate, I think we have topped out at 8oC here in Sunny Poole. UKV into range now and showing for Sunday at least we MIGHT be in the game...

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

    Just droping @carinthian update from the MAD thread in here.

    Afternoon, sorry a bit late with an update. The team have provided the results for the outer parameters from the snow forecasting computer. The fine mesh model is unable to provide depth as far out as the British Isles but flags up snow prospects and locations for SE Britain.  Snow prospects good across the Southern Half of Northern England , especially Saturday evening into early Sunday. The band of snow then focused further Southeast during Sunday. Monday appears to show convective snow shower activity quite widely across much of Eastern Britain with some extending further west. Tuesday could be the surprise day as their charts indicate some sort of disturbance in the flow from the Low countries with snow prospects being flagged up more widely for a time ( Humber to IOW ). All in all good prospects for some snow for many but surprises can occur almost anywhere. Longer term, a swift removal of the Ac  to a more maritime air type likely to be less progressive across the north. However, thats still some days off . Just enjoy the snow and real cold whilst its here, at least for you lot in blighty.

    C

    Highlighted bit may be of interest for the usual snow starved Dorset/S.Devon coasts and maybe Channel Islands in the event that there are troughs in the Easterly flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    4 minutes ago, philglossop said:

    Remember December 2010- weekend before Christmas with possible channel low? Which slid South and whilst we got a dusting and little more?

    I'd expect much the same this week...

    Yep, think we were under an orange warning at one stage for that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Corfe Mullen,Wimborne
    6 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

    Must be the Purbeck microclimate, I think we have topped out at 8oC here in Sunny Poole. UKV into range now and showing for Sunday at least we MIGHT be in the game...

    11.2C  here in Corfe Mullen at the moment with sunny spells in between some rain showers

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    I see the Meto have updated their forecast for later next week and are now going for some sort of a change next weekend by the look of it ūüėí:

    Wednesday 10 Feb - Friday 19 Feb

    A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021

    However, the extended forecast is very interesting

    Friday 19 Feb - Friday 5 Mar

    After a milder and wetter interlude, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021

    Edited by wiltshire weather
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    Posted
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon

    Although I wasn't there at the time, I remember seeing reports that the Exeter area got a big dumping on 20 December 2010 (the Monday before Christmas, rather than the preceding weekend) with over 20cm in places, and with lying snow out to the sea front along the south coast of east Devon, though not as much in west Devon and generally nothing in low-lying parts of Cornwall.  I remember there being a lot of uncertainty over that one in the days leading up to it with some model runs (notably the GFS as per usual) deepening the low and sending it further north, which would have brought the dumping of snow further north but rain into the areas that ultimately got snow from it.  It was a very different kind of setup though (a northerly followed by a lobe of the polar vortex being stuck over Britain for a few days).

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    1315351063_Screenshot_20210205-152226_MetOffice.thumb.jpg.fe5cc766dbf1b5532af0889d0447a936.jpg

    As good as its locked so far for here. I'll be setting an alarm I think just to see turn.

    Not sure why the app says I'm in that road though I'm not far from there but certainly not that road! lol

    Edited by Rapodo
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    I must say, that Met Office update seems overly confident in a milder interlude given how many 00z EPS members stayed cold in the south through the weekend having disrupted that big trough sufficiently.

    No denying it's a bit of a large deep feature in the current modelling consensus though - adjustments to something weaker and less organised will be needed. We've seen that a lot in recent weeks, mind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Plenty of sunshine today which makes a nice change but with a few showers at times. 9.7¬įC

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    I must say, that Met Office update seems overly confident in a milder interlude given how many 00z EPS members stayed cold in the south through the weekend having disrupted that big trough sufficiently.

    No denying it's a bit of a large deep feature in the current modelling consensus though - adjustments to something weaker and less organised will be needed. We've seen that a lot in recent weeks, mind!

    They seem confident for a return to cold too. Be interesting how it all pans out. Although they say milder they actually cover themselves by not saying how mild. Is it an extra 2oC or 10? It's quite an open book really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    I must say, that Met Office update seems overly confident in a milder interlude given how many 00z EPS members stayed cold in the south through the weekend having disrupted that big trough sufficiently.

    No denying it's a bit of a large deep feature in the current modelling consensus though - adjustments to something weaker and less organised will be needed. We've seen that a lot in recent weeks, mind!

    Yes, that struck me as quite a change in their wording. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show but for me, I'll think it will change again as we go into next week....

    Just now, Rapodo said:

    They seem confident for a return to cold too. Be interesting how it all pans out. Although they say milder they actually cover themselves by not saying how mild. Is it an extra 2oC or 10? It's quite an open book really.

    They're very good at covering all the bases for sure¬†!¬†ūüôā

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    I must say, that Met Office update seems overly confident in a milder interlude given how many 00z EPS members stayed cold in the south through the weekend having disrupted that big trough sufficiently.

    No denying it's a bit of a large deep feature in the current modelling consensus though - adjustments to something weaker and less organised will be needed. We've seen that a lot in recent weeks, mind!

    I just find it really odd how confident met were with there colder outlook and now have completely flipped. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor

    I'm hoping that up on Dartmoor we will get some snow at least, which a lot of the charts seem to show. Probably not a lot, but a few cm would be nice!!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon

    The Met Office outlook looks similar to the ECMWF ensemble mean, with a slow breakdown from the south but the milder air arriving in the south and south-west relatively quickly, a much slower breakdown in the north and then southerlies with high pressure staying put to the east, which definitely has potential to bring back colder air.  Still, by that point we're out at day 10 and I don't think the ECMWF ensembles have that strong a track record past day 7 (though the ECM is on average the most reliable at 5-7 days out).  I don't think the update necessarily means that confidence is high, just that they think it's the most likely scenario as things stand.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    20210205_153514.thumb.jpg.580ce3d1bb1b21b55b8c54ab19be271b.jpg

    I think this sums things up very well and goes along with my expectations. We just need the ground to freeze quick enough after the rain. Thanks to UK Extreme weather. Let's hope my 1000th post is a pic of snow ūüėČ

    Edited by Rapodo
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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    17 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    I just find it really odd how confident met were with there colder outlook and now have completely flipped. 

    I think given what we're seeing not to mention the additional information the METO have, milder air getting in down here looks the form horse now. A bit disappointed to be honest so really hoping to see snow (even just some falling flakes) before the end of the week. 

     

    *edit* ūüôā

    you can see from the ICON 12z (i know, i know) how much the LP is struggling. It makes it but not by much and a fairly quick return to cold looks a good bet on the t+180 chart:

    image.thumb.png.4667bea50d94bb8576461f4fe809ea4a.png

    Edited by Frank Trough
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.de1f2a55ce3bab2e29ba46fe092b30e0.png

    I suppose we may in fact see something like this given the signs that the polar jet might buckle again by Friday.

    A little rain from a weak disturbance and then a relatively calm situation that turns milder aloft but perhaps not much so at the surface, especially where there's lying snow - so, more relevant to the north and east of our region unless something notable develops within the Mon-Thu period.

    The thing about this is, the trough gets held up - so what if it advances more slowly beforehand? Slowing of trough speed is one of the most common model adjustments that we see, after all.

     

    At the mo, the models aren't consistent between runs or each other on whether that new buckling of the jet streams happens, so we can only wait and wonder on that scenario.

    A classic disrupt and slide remains on the table among the EPS, though, so I'm not giving up on that idea yet. I don't think I've ever seen it be the favoured outcome in an ensemble suite outside of 4, maybe 5 days range?

    1 or 2 more days before we can really know whether we'll have to grin and bear the milder interlude or not.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    Tuesday close to very interesting on the GFS 12z:

    image.thumb.png.4e32b1775efe9b28eb88fc5e5e2384cf.pngimage.thumb.png.f409dab9b6edbe220535af518c3bbe0a.pngimage.thumb.png.8c8b5a904fe4c8084e9f7e2df1cf362b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
    23 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    I just find it really odd how confident met were with there colder outlook and now have completely flipped. 

    Yes, me too. all this "fronts not expected to progress" and now one rund and its "becoming milder" lol. fickle eh

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    GFS has a fair bit of showery activity trying to make it to our region Mon-Tue.

    That's with 850s considerably higher than UKMO and to a lesser extent ECM.

    So, it might manage be a bit more interesting for the region that it looks at face value, considering how poor ECM is at resolving shower propagation.

    image.thumb.png.09bd8d12d308a3cb4ce6b85c2d8bc6f5.pngimage.thumb.png.eda1e7414c7e472a2cd62974d05dc245.pngimage.thumb.png.aeb70ef4d835a20239f02ddfb086a9eb.png 

    Okay, that's enough over-analysis for the time being. I've caught the analytical bug¬†ūüėÖ.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Aspege giving us a chance of snow from the channel low Tuesday. 2-5cm looks possible if comes off! Looks to me it’s moved north.  Is Apege a good model? icon says no and gfs just scrapes the coast. 

    2915AD97-8E9E-43D0-AD4C-7EE11CFD051F.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Aspege giving us a chance of snow from the channel low Tuesday. 2-5cm looks possible if comes off! Looks to me it’s moved north.  Is Apege a good model? icon says no and gfs just scrapes the coast. 

    2915AD97-8E9E-43D0-AD4C-7EE11CFD051F.jpeg

    Interesting! The Arpege is a good short range model but hasn't done very well with getting snow distribution bang on so far this winter I believe. Nevertheless, good to see.....

     

    Edited by wiltshire weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
    15 minutes ago, ptow said:

    Yes, me too. all this "fronts not expected to progress" and now one rund and its "becoming milder" lol. fickle eh

    I cant see any cold shot lasting for more than 3 days tbh.. the energy on the eastern seaboard is as strong as it has been all winter.. crazy energy driving low after low... -20 in chicago

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