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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Small is right , dependant on this LP

    image.thumb.png.4b7e05ebe461a64f8b4c6f7fcf21ccac.png

    I'd say needs to be further North 

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Somebody is playing with my mind... opened the front door to go to the car, absolutely hosing down..so decided to go to the back door of the house, open the door it wasn't raining....doh! Aha figures don't lie... 36mm/min @ 20:05, so it was hosing down..as the radar shows...

    image.png.12e7f885bdef308f0af933ad6974326f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
    34 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

    Any chance for us snow starved isle of wighters? 🙏

    I think we may well be surprised, we may not have masses at the weekend but think our chances of some battleground snow into next week will be our best shot and potentially significant as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    I’d much prefer it to be this way around at the present time, ie the way the ECM showed tonight; plenty of time for upgrades and it will mostly come down to a now cast situation 

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Reached 9.7°C, currently 8.7°C

    Edited by matt111
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    After a lot of searching, I've found the 12z "model of the day" for the West Country region.  It's Netweathers very own medium range model;

    IMG_20210204_212232.thumb.jpg.c5d46313a18e488f6b4041cba8a257c0.jpg

    IMG_20210204_212358.thumb.jpg.c97789e057669b7dfaddfb8de43810e6.jpgIMG_20210204_212502.thumb.jpg.07f1736a4652dbc91df45946c60939d2.jpg

    Without seeing a wider Northern Hemispheric view, this would suggests a more elongated low pressure system approaching from the WSW, a more favourable angle of attack for us to see a "battleground" type event that's been mooted about recently.

    However, a week away, and much like all global and medium range model output currently, very much subject to change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

    Great analysis @Singularity on the upcoming weather situation over the next few days. Thank you.

    I’m in no doubt that Met office warning will see further adjustments tomorrow and Saturday following further model runs either in our favour or not in our favour. I’d be highly surprised if it isn’t modified at least one more time.

    As for later next week, that’s a long way off to even begin to be pinning down when a weather system tries to make its way over our region and what it will bring.

    Let’s see what comes of later this weekend first.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    SKL has quite an area of snow over Oxfordshire and surrounding counties for Saturday night ......fingers crossed 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Looks pretty much bone dry for us from Sunday to Wednesday.

    At least there is plenty of time for change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exmouth, Devon
  • Location: Exmouth, Devon
    8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Looks pretty much bone dry for us from Sunday to Wednesday.

    Things can only get better haha

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Looks pretty much bone dry for us from Sunday to Wednesday.

    That’s what I was thinking tbh looking at the lastest. And normally reliant  app I use . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    4 minutes ago, offerman said:

    That’s what I was thinking tbh looking at the lastest. And normally reliant  app I use . 

    Normally on a strong easterly we do get some decent showers but at mo it looks cold, dry and so, a waste of heating.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Mmm the low pressure on mon and Tues has gone further south on the latest run. So pretty dry for the far south west based on that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Normally on a strong easterly we do get some decent showers but at mo it looks cold, dry and so, a waste of heating.

    Just watched fergie forecast too and shows dry from Sunday to Thursday when sleet comes in.  
    he did draw an extended bulb off the main area to our east the bulb extending westward over toward your way and Weston bit low confidence on this . 
    you never know we could get surprise showers troughs popping up though surely on the easterly fetch off the warm sea and with enough energy could make their way inland to us ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset

    Bit chilly for a few days and then back to double figures by this time next week, roll on spring! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    This gfs run is pretty unforgiving for the far south west (Cornwall) More likely wet than white come Wednesday.  And a quick snow to rain for the rest of us. Southerly with 850's near 0. Onto the next run!

    Edited by festivalking
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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    7 minutes ago, JimBob said:

    Bit chilly for a few days and then back to double figures by this time next week, roll on spring! 

    Not to say it would be right but the GFS 18z is showing 4 consecutive ice days for large parts of the region. I'd say that's more than a bit chilly.  

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    It's certainly going to feel cold for a few days, but snow down this way is quite unlikely. Frost will be limited here too. Lower relative humidity combined with a cloudy Easterly tends to put pay to that. Historic it won't be!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    It's certainly going to feel cold for a few days, but snow down this way is quite unlikely. Frost will be limited here too. Lower relative humidity combined with a cloudy Easterly tends to put pay to that. Historic it won't be!

    Frost will be deep and penetrating from Sunday through to Wednesday for certain. It will not 'look' frosty but with a strong dry E wind and temperatures below 0C for 3 or 4 straight days it will be a damaging frosty period. Far more damaging to buildings / pipes /etc than a -5C still night. There will be minor disturbances in the flow that will give snow to some even out here in the west, in fact one of the heaviest falls I ever experienced here was a combination of two 'minor' features each giving 10C to 15cm in 2010. We also got 30cm from a 'minor feature' in 2019 which brought everything to a halt around here.

    Then we look West to see a battleground event (or more than one) - pretty good by recent years standards.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

    temperatures below 0C for 3 or 4 straight days

    That is not going to occur here, no way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    Plenty of 'snowflation' going on in the MOD thread.

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