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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    42 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    I have this image of snow starved southerners in Salisbury ALL getting in their cars to reach the snowline, and yet remain within Government ruling of staying close to home to exercise...

    image.thumb.png.88eb818663f22c00dd874cb66ad16978.png

    I can see my housssssse!!!!!

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    I was confident we would get something this morning after seeing GFS and GFSP bring the precip further west now seeing those fax charts I'm not sure anymore.

    This is going down to radar watch unfortunately a 50 mile shift west could bring the likes of Dorset and IOW in on it more. But for now my expectations have completly gone so my thinking is we get nothing and hope for a surprise on radar.

    We may then be turning our hopes to this low coming in next week.

    Fingers and toes crossed for everyone!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    Why do people stress so much about precipitation predictions? They are never right!

    Two very recent examples ; last Sunday far more snow on the day than forecast even on the morning, today far more rain than the showers which were forecast yesterday evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    I was confident we would get something this morning after seeing GFS and GFSP bring the precip further west now seeing those fax charts I'm not sure anymore.

    This is going down to radar watch unfortunately a 50 mile shift west could bring the likes of Dorset and IOW in on it more. But for now my expectations have completly gone so my thinking is we get nothing and hope for a surprise on radar.

    We may then be turning our hopes to this low coming in next week.

    Fingers and toes crossed for everyone!

    If the low misses us I expect many meltdowns in here! Fingers crossed 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    1 hour ago, Nights King said:

    I would rather take some dry powder snow from the east than risk seeing some wet transient snow from west that could easily lead to disapointment. Lets hope these warnings dont stay to our north and east all next week. 🤐

     

    Not ready tyo change my avatar and jump aboard polar express just yet but im getting close 🤨

    I've been thinking about that, my concern with the sliders missing us to the south is the possibility of a couple of near misses to the south followed by the block slackening and then a quick breakthrough to mild from the west, which would at most give inland/eastern parts of this region some short-lived snow followed by rain. 

    There's bound to be some IMBY considerations as personally I'll be wanting the sliders to make landfall further south than many who live further north and east, so that the fronts hit the Exeter area but the snow/rain boundary stays to the south-west of here, but possibly at the cost of some northern and eastern parts of this region missing out or just getting a small amount.  However if that did happen there certainly wouldn't be a quick return to mild from the south.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth - Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow
  • Location: Bournemouth - Dorset
    1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

    I was confident we would get something this morning after seeing GFS and GFSP bring the precip further west now seeing those fax charts I'm not sure anymore.

    This is going down to radar watch unfortunately a 50 mile shift west could bring the likes of Dorset and IOW in on it more. But for now my expectations have completly gone so my thinking is we get nothing and hope for a surprise on radar.

    We may then be turning our hopes to this low coming in next week.

    Fingers and toes crossed for everyone!

    Experience tells me that we won't have a clearer picture until about 24 hours before the event and even then over the years i've seen shifts of up to 50-100 miles, at very short notice.

    Forecasting snow, accumulations and locations is extremely difficult even for the most experienced meteorologists.  I certainly wouldn't pay any attention to those accumulation charts, they are about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

    Have a feeling us South/South Westerners may be pleasantly surprised next week.

    Keep your nerve peeps!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

    Anything from the east is going to be showery in nature. I'd rather risk it all and get a dumping than 0.5cm of powder snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    The synoptic outlook for next week reminds me of the third week of February 1978, which had more or less the scenario that I envisaged above, and it looks like one of a range of realistic possibilities for mid to late next week.  I wasn't even born when this event happened but as far as I'm aware it was intense and affected most of this region of the UK.

    image.thumb.png.ce175ae08a45561102d5482af8e64d8a.png

    Of course that's practically the snowiest-case scenario from here and something rather less snowy than that or even non-snowy is probably more likely, but it's noteworthy to even be able to consider it as a realistic possibility.

     

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Roll on this time next week for a different story,,,maybe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

    Afternoon, people shouldn’t worry to much about accumulations etc, I’m on the south coast and it’s so hard getting snow. Experience tells me that we get the cold in first winds from the east we will get surprises. 2010 we nearly had a foot and we only had about 12 hours notice for it 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Dull and wet again today. Just counting down the days until the cold arrives, hopefully with plenty of surprises. ☃️ 😄 

    Edited by matt111
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, mattyj said:

    Hi I'm in ferndown just u the road what's are chance's for snow thanks

    Still to far out l would say but chances.👍🙏❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Just seen the BBC weather forecast

    The presenter showed snow coming into East Anglia and the east coast

    i’m guessing some of that could spread our way but of course details can change on a daily basis can’t be right up until the event it’self. 
     

    Andy was spot-on about precipitation amounts we had a lot more snow than forecast last weekend although that didn’t settle but the weekend before that we had 6 to 7 cm here and the sink we will forecast between one and three cm 

    also the fact that the BBC won’t be able to pick up little features or little streamers troughs as they form rapidly without notice more of a now cast situation with those types of scenarios

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    So.. who’s managed a full days work today without peeping on here every 5 mins? 🤷🏼‍♀️😂 Not me haha!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Met update. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. 😄

    ED9CEF75-386A-40DE-91A2-8A202DFC9943.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Filton
  • Location: Filton

    I remember staying up one night in early dec 2010 and watching a Thames streamer make it all the way over to Bradford on Avon, 4inches and stayed until boxing day! Everything crossed for something similar next four days!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yeovil
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Yeovil
    7 minutes ago, khodds said:

    So.. who’s managed a full days work today without peeping on here every 5 mins? 🤷🏼‍♀️😂 Not me haha!!

    Yeah zero work rate here😃 ICON's rolling out just waiting for @sheikhy to tell us whats going to hit the midlands👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    Just now, suxer said:

    Yeah zero work rate here😃 ICON's rolling out just waiting for @sheikhy to tell us whats going to hit the midlands👌


    !!! lets hope!!?? for! more!!??!?! upgrades!!!!??!?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor

    Looking at the snow maps for the country, obviously 90% of it is to the East, but there is a very small grey blob where I am (Dartmoor), what are the chances of a good dumping of snow instead of the sleeting crap we usually get most of the time?

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:


    !!! lets hope!!?? for! more!!??!?! upgrades!!!!??!?

    Icon not rolling out

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Met update. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. 😄

    ED9CEF75-386A-40DE-91A2-8A202DFC9943.png

    Praying to the weather gods 👏🏼

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    5 minutes ago, BARRY said:

    Icon not rolling out

     

    I noticed that also! Was going to check it before GFS 12z but its not updating.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor
    1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

    I also have word from Marco! Hes saying south west may not yet miss out. We're still in the game 😜

    That'd be much appreciated..!

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