South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[ARTDEMOLE]

Cloudy. Dull. Damp. 1.9c. HUMIDITY 94%

 

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, after the temperatures JUST dipping its toe into the sub zero overnight with the low of -0.2°C at: 01:04, it's currently 3.1°C and climbing around +0.6°C/hr we should reach 5°C by lunch time, unless the sun comes out..right now it is overcast as the beachcam shows this morning..

[Dorsetbred]

Now if GFS were the King of Models, AND I thought things are unlikely to change, THEN I'd say "Were stuffed!" IF I were to believe the latest image for the 10th Jan....check out where in the UK it WONT see snowfall...

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

Just now, Dorsetbred said:

Now if GFS were the King of Models, AND I thought things are unlikely to change, THEN I'd say "Were stuffed!" IF I were to believe the latest image for the 10th Jan....check out where in the UK it WONT see snowfall...

Remember though, we've been told that the 06z GFS is fodder and shouldn't be taken seriously.  Always look to the EC & UKMO models as we've repeatedly been told these verify better. 

[Dorsetbred]

11 minutes ago, AWD said:

Remember though, we've been told that the 06z GFS is fodder and shouldn't be taken seriously.  Always look to the EC & UKMO models as we've repeatedly been told these verify better. 

At the moment there "appears" to be some alignment across the big 3 about a flattening of the Atlantic, and less of an opportunity for blocking to rebuild..HOWEVER they all seem to be struggling a bit for consistency, beyond the immediate..

[SteveB]

I think this cold spell is trolling us.

 

[Ventnor Viking]

The Isle of Wights winter weather summed up in one picture........

[Frosty_wsm]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

I think this cold spell is trolling us.

 

That snow chart posted certainly is lol

[iowpompeylee]

1 hour ago, Ventnor Viking said:

The Isle of Wights winter weather summed up in one picture........

Spot on mate 

[iowpompeylee]

Just saw the itv weather and just mentioned rain showers tomorrow maybe a little wintery on the hills!!! temps said 6c too! 

[AWD]

15 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Just saw the itv weather and just mentioned rain showers tomorrow maybe a little wintery on the hills!!! temps said 6c too! 

That's probably about right for tomorrow.  It's Tuesday - Friday that parts of our region become cold enough for any PPN to be of the white variety.

[MidnightSnow]

4 hours ago, camturbo said:

I said I wouldn't and wished I hadnt. Just popped to the mad thread and oh dear!!! It appears things maybe going to what people dont want. Has anybody caught any toys yet???  Still no snow here wind is keen though. Hopefully this potential ssw will kick in soon and bring some snow to our region. Then look forward  to storms in the summer 

Yeah I find that thread really exposes the true pessimists on this forum. Must be an awful way to live your life. When the charts show cold prospects in FI, you'll find the "Take it with a pinch of salt" brigade. (Nothing wrong with that by the way) - However, when FI charts flip to mild, those same people believe that's exactly how it will pan out. Unbelievable.

[camturbo]

13 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Yeah I find that thread really exposes the true pessimists on this forum. Must be an awful way to live your life. When the charts show cold prospects in FI, you'll find the "Take it with a pinch of salt" brigade. (Nothing wrong with that by the way) - However, when FI charts flip to mild, those same people believe that's exactly how it will pan out. Unbelievable.

Your right its quite infuriating reading something that sounds positive for someone to make it negative lol. I'm quite new on here so trying to find the people that actually know what they are talking about,and read their ideas and try and learn what they are seeing in the models. I for one enjoy snow in the winter and storms in the summer but that's not everyones taste. 

I'm hearing that maybe a low is coming down from Iceland that maybe one to watch,but wait and see I suppose.

[Dorsetbred]

Another couple of hours out in the garden, clearing up the winter rubbish, wife even helped me transplant a tree, as the temperature reached the balmy height of 5.1°C at: 13:26, wind just has a slight edge on it...interesting the couple of colder days demolished some glass jars, doh of course they were frozen solid with rainwater...note to wife next year turn them all upside down..doh...

[Dorsetbred]

Even some blue sky cruising through late in the afternoon along with some sunshine..as the temperature recedes currently 4.4°C

Edited January 3, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[BARRY]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Even some blue sky cruising through late in the afternoon along with some sunshine..as the temperature recedes currently 4.4°C

4.2 here and 1027.8 bar. dry overcast

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Something incoming from the East. Temps too high here at 3c though so will be rain. Booo!!!

[iowpompeylee]

36 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Something incoming from the East. Temps too high here at 3c though so will be rain. Booo!!!

Could this do what it did last night? Temps drop as precipitation moves past? 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

31 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Could this do what it did last night? Temps drop as precipitation moves past? 

It came and died right over me! So went East and saw nothing of it!

[AWD]

12z Arome model shows some decent overnight frost's next week;

Unfortunately, frost is looking like the only thing that's going to make the outdoors white for now.  Small chance of something snowy at the end of the week prior to less cold weather arriving.

Can see local frost hollows like the Mendips, Cotswolds etc recording some decent low minima next week.

All dependant on cloud cover and wind obvs.

Edited January 3, 2021 by AWD

[CheesepuffScott]

Reached 4.4°C, currently 2.9°C

[Dorsetbred]

As I mentioned earlier a peak of 5.1°C at: 13:26, is slowly grinding away at the zero stick, but given we have cloud around it's a really slow grind, currently 2.1°C, but it is a real slow drop....

[Dorsetbred]

Some recent cloud build up has pushed the temperature back up again, now at 2.8°C, having drops a few drops of rain in transit..

Edited January 3, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Nights King]

Well this cold spell doesn't feel very cold currently. Maybe this SSW even can give us a change of fortunes later into January.. 

Not seen a flake personally yet this winter.

[MP-R]

What a good cold spell it could’ve been if the various rainy interludes had been white. Frequent small snowfalls would’ve been more interesting in a big’un followed by mild in my opinion.