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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Predicted vs actual for 10pm from Metoffice. Pretty similar tbh.

    Predicted

    686472E4-3B8E-44AD-B20A-5DF45A849EB5.thumb.png.f5d2b073a9617c19d792c12d8e655c3e.png

    Live

    7D8E2FE8-B9E9-4EAB-BDA6-BF9F3505141E.thumb.png.986d0423379c50304b2ecc8f7179c9d9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    Just now, chris55 said:

    Predicted vs actual for 10pm from Metoffice. Pretty similar tbh.

    Predicted

    686472E4-3B8E-44AD-B20A-5DF45A849EB5.thumb.png.f5d2b073a9617c19d792c12d8e655c3e.png

    Live

    7D8E2FE8-B9E9-4EAB-BDA6-BF9F3505141E.thumb.png.986d0423379c50304b2ecc8f7179c9d9.png

    Yes we got to remember the front will slow down as it heads in to uk shores.

    I'm so nervous... its just been so long!

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    Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead

    This radar animation is quite good for capturing the building size and intensity of the band...

     

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, Adrian Major said:

    Met Office Forecast Upgrade for Stroud Area. Heavy Snow 6Pm right through to 10PM then light snow for couple of more hours

    Should that say ‘6am - 10am’? Just checking! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    9 minutes ago, Paul T said:

    Some very intense ppn on the radar to our west. It gathering some strength. 

    It also has some sleet within it, even out at sea to our west (unusal), which bodes very well for when it hits land...

    And to top it off, lightening currently being detected at Scilly Isles...

    There is polar air digging in behind this so it's not surprising there are greens starting to show, although it can be inaccurate sometimes.......

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    There’s already some hint of a pivot, running the animation for an hour. At the very north west tip of the band it appears not to move  much at all in an hour. The band had a near perfect north south line a few hours back..

    F44BA716-A207-4827-96E5-0F7E2815A8C5.thumb.png.e2288b2566709a75b1acf849d31fa144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    7 minutes ago, Adrian Major said:

    Met Office Forecast Upgrade for Stroud Area. Heavy Snow 6Pm right through to 10PM then light snow for couple of more hours

    The initial front looking a bit more intense for sure! Though as ever the Apps have to be taken as a guide only 🙂 
     

    8568338D-2907-4A7C-BE59-0DA595789D81.thumb.png.c884a6748ecc462f2ecb1ba52a5364b3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, SilverWolf said:

    There’s already some hint of a pivot, running the animation for an hour. At the very north west tip of the band it appears not to move  much at all in an hour. The band had a near perfect north south line a few hours back..

    F44BA716-A207-4827-96E5-0F7E2815A8C5.thumb.png.e2288b2566709a75b1acf849d31fa144.png

    Yep, it's what was forecast by the 12z Euro4 to name but one model, hence why I am not too concerned about the northwards or eastwards extent yet.

    It should start to slide SE now with the associated PPN bands rotating NE in an anti clockwise motion.

    Little side note, high Res 18z models all give the West Country a period of snowfall early hours before pivoting the band somewhere to the NE of our region.  Worth noting though that the PPN intensity is forecast to be a lot better when crossing the West Country than when the front is forecast to pivot, where PPN intensity quickly fizzles out.

    Might not be so important to be under any pivot as we imagine?

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    Posted
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL

    I'm so excited... am thinking of setting alarm for 7am... no point being up any earlier than that as dark....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

    Please keep updates on radar and snow for are  region please guys for us novice very  appreciated fingers crossed guys we all deserve a nice dumping 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    2 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    Please keep updates on radar and snow for are  region please guys for us novice very  appreciated fingers crossed guys we all deserve a nice dumping 

    Just keep watching lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    6 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

    I'm so excited... am thinking of setting alarm for 7am... no point being up any earlier than that as dark....

     

    If you’ve never been for a night walk in snow that’s just fallen, I’ll highly recommend it! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL
    Just now, SilverWolf said:

    If you’ve never been for a night walk in snow that’s just fallen, I’ll highly recommend it! 

    100% with that... though looks like its due to start around 6am where I am.... want to time my morning walk with the heaviest of it if possible... will defo be glued to the radar.... 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    10 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Yep, it's what was forecast by the 12z Euro4 to name but one model, hence why I am not too concerned about the northwards or eastwards extent yet.

    It should start to slide SE now with the associated PPN bands rotating NE in an anti clockwise motion.

    Little side note, high Res 18z models all give the West Country a period of snowfall early hours before pivoting the band somewhere to the NE of our region.  Worth noting though that the PPN intensity is forecast to be a lot better when crossing the West Country than when the front is forecast to pivot, where PPN intensity quickly fizzles out.

    Might not be so important to be under any pivot as we imagine?

    I noticed that Wales and the SW take all the heavy snow and when it pivots it's just the dribs and drabs left.

    Edited by Jayfromcardiff
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, Blizzard said:

    100% with that... though looks like its due to start around 6am where I am.... want to time my morning walk with the heaviest of it if possible... will defo be glued to the radar.... 

     

    Latest 18z UKV has the band clear of the whole region and into the Midlands by 08:00am tomorrow morning.  😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    2 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    If you’ve never been for a night walk in snow that’s just fallen, I’ll highly recommend it! 

    I went out in the blizzard back in 2018 I could barely stand due to the wind and snow. 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    Just now, AWD said:

    Latest 18z UKV has the band clear of the whole region and into the Midlands by 08:00am tomorrow morning.  😁

    😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead

    For context, current Radar and frontal speed suggests 1.45am Plymouth, 2.30am Exeter, 3.30am Bristol...

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    6 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

    100% with that... though looks like its due to start around 6am where I am.... want to time my morning walk with the heaviest of it if possible... will defo be glued to the radar.... 

     

    Yeah timing is key... good to have some on the ground and some falling. 

    Edited by SilverWolf
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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    1 minute ago, Paul T said:

    For context, current Radar and frontal speed suggests 1.45am Plymouth, 2.30am Exeter, 3.30am Bristol...

    Thank you David 

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    Absolutely!  We've been waiting long enough this winter for snow!

    Only this winter?!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    1 minute ago, Paul T said:

    For context, current Radar and frontal speed suggests 1.45am Plymouth, 2.30am Exeter, 3.30am Bristol...

    Its going to slow down though.. isnt it. 

     

    4.30am alarm is early enough surely?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    Only this winter?!

     

    Nah most winters since 2013!

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