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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    2 hours ago, Hampshire Hillbilly said:

    Put the snowplough on the tractor for tomorrow. It'll not snow now!

    Give us a wave if you're in the hilly bit between Basingstoke and Alton! 

     

    Snowplough.jpg

    The Basingstoke plateau! 

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    1 hour ago, Kreftysoton said:

    Yep correct the onshore wind will mean no snow for all of us along the coast only need to go 10/15 miles inland and it should all be snow

    Onshore wind kills us in anything other than an Imbedded continental flow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    Ok so it’s more north than thought currently, this isn’t good is it for us? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    9 minutes ago, khodds said:

    Ok so it’s more north than thought currently, this isn’t good is it for us? 

    I'm comparing radar to 12z Euro4 projection and I can't see too much difference with north/south extent.  Much further east however, though.

    It maybe further north than other models have forecast (think Arome was south biased) but I haven't looked too much at other models, so wouldn't know.

    The 12z Euro4 was a good run regarding snowfall for the West Country and there isn't too much difference with northwards extent verses this model, so hopefully the Euro4 is on the ball.

    As ever though, it's best to watch the radar now as I doubt any model will have this nailed 100%.

    EDIT - Just had a glance at Arome, NMM and Arpege.  Definitely further north than these models forecast so this could be where the "further north" comments are from, in which case they are correct.  EURO4, EC and GFS are more aligned to current radar situation, albeit not east enough still.  Pivot was always likely to be north of us, it doesn't change the fact that there is still a good chance many of us will see snowfall as the band moves through in the early hours still.

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Busy thread tonight, only just checked in and caught up (big up the Stroud massive lol @SilverWolf @bellanite @Adrian Major @noonoo418 and I know we have a few more in the area, deffo a Quedgely member but can't remember the name.) Thats a good spread of people at lower levels and on the hills.

    Euro 4 12z looking pretty good with the pivot position, but its going to be a case of radar and window watching I think, as in these situations ppn can come and go (or not come at all lol.)

    Hopefully we will all see some snow! Im looking forward to all the updates and info from across the entire region as we wake up and go through tomorrow. Fingers crossed 😊

    Euro 4 12z for 9am and 4pm

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Anyone else find this ever so slightly stressful, lol?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    Just now, Don said:

    Anyone else find this ever so slightly stressful, lol?!

    Oh yes! Sucked right in!! Better than Netflix 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Absolutely!  We've been waiting long enough this winter for snow!

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    5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Busy thread tonight, only just checked in and caught up (big up the Stroud massive lol @SilverWolf @bellanite @Adrian Major @noonoo418 and I know we have a few more in the area, deffo a Quedgely member but can't remember the name.) Thats a good spread of people at lower levels and on the hills.

    Euro 4 12z looking pretty good with the pivot position, but its going to be a case of radar and window watching I think, as in these situations ppn can come and go (or not come at all lol.)

    Hopefully we will all see some snow! Im looking forward to all the updates and info from across the entire region as we wake up and go through tomorrow. Fingers crossed 😊

    Euro 4 12z for 9am and 4pm

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    Hello fellow Stroudies

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Anyone else find this ever so slightly stressful, lol?!

    Its all about the chase........this is the fun bit lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    Is it just me or it doesn't look that far north. The stuff developing over the Irish Sea is what we are watching not the stuff over the Republic I thought.

    I remember we had this feeling for the snow event in Feb 2019, we were watching the radar and it was completely off but ended up being way better than what some of us had expected.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bradford, Wilts - 273ft asl
  • Location: Bradford, Wilts - 273ft asl
    1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

    image.thumb.png.4aa6d0e5b5221cda3624a597faebd171.png

    Latest Met Office is an upgrade for me 🤞❄️

    Also notice the snow in the evening - that may be due to a pivot and it sinking back south again?

    Yep same here, was only showing light snow and even some sleet earlier: 👍

    image.thumb.jpeg.eeabe2d2f2a134f508f6e2f92c089a4a.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon

    currently -2.2c dewpoint-2.9c so fingers crossed the weather plays ball

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    14 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Its all about the chase........this is the fun bit lol 

    Oh of course and won't have to wait too long now for the actual result!  😆BTW, the Metoffice forecast seems more optimistic for my village than the BBC.  Not sure what model the BBC use for short range forecasts now?

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    Is it just me or it doesn't look that far north. The stuff developing over the Irish Sea is what we are watching not the stuff over the Republic I thought.

    I remember we had this feeling for the snow event in Feb 2019, we were watching the radar and it was completely off but ended up being way better than what some of us had expected.

    It depends what model or forecast you are comparing it too, that's where the confusion is arising.  It is definitely further north than some model forecasts such as Arome, Arpege and WrfNMM for example, but when compared to other model forecasts such as Euro4, EC and UKV, there isn't much difference.

    There is a lot of sliding, pivoting and intensifying to happen in the next 6 hours or so before it arrives over the West Country, so there is a lot still to happen and play for.  

    Bear in mind, when reading comments from other regions or Twitter etc, everyone is going to be biased towards their particular region and see things favourably for their area.

    It's definitely further east and when compared to some model data, further north, however it doesn't change the fact that many areas of the West Country are still in the game for some snowfall anytime between 03:00am and 22:00 tomorrow.  How much is very much open for debate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    Is it just me or it doesn't look that far north. The stuff developing over the Irish Sea is what we are watching not the stuff over the Republic I thought.

    I remember we had this feeling for the snow event in Feb 2019, we were watching the radar and it was completely off but ended up being way better than what some of us had expected.

    Yes, February 1st 2019 far exceeded what I was expecting.  It was supposed to snow Thursday evening (31st January) but nothing on Friday.  What actually happened was there was a dusting Thursday evening with more snow overnight, leaving a couple of inches by Friday morning.  The snow then pepped up late morning, lasting well into the afternoon, giving a total of 4-5 inches.  This had not been forecast the day before.

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    Posted
  • Location: BS15 8bx
  • Location: BS15 8bx

    I’m so confused are the best snow chances heading north into the Midlands now. Midlands forum going nuts with the system a lot further north? Please don’t say this will turn into a midlands event again. 😡😡😡

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A nice sunny day here. Temp reached 6.6°C.

    Currently -1.4°C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

    I’m so confused are the best snow chances heading north into the Midlands now. Midlands forum going nuts with the system a lot further north? Please don’t say this will turn into a midlands event again. 😡😡😡

    Not compared to any predictions, but the band of precipitation is also way south of Penzance at the moment. And the pivot, if it happens, will be an important part of what occurs... radar then window watch only from now on I reckon! 

    Edited by SilverWolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    8 minutes ago, Don said:

    Oh of course and won't have to wait too long now for the actual result now!  😆BTW, the Metoffice forecast seems more optimistic for my village than the BBC.  Not sure what model the BBC use for short range forecasts now?

    I think the BBC now use the ECM?

    Whereas Metoffice use the Unified Model (UKMO) at a higher resolution for the 54h forecast which runs 6 times a day. I would say Met probably has a better model.

    But im not entirely sure how/what MeteoGroup group give the BBC in terms of app and TV forecasts etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    PPN is way ahead of earlier forecasts.  Was originally forecast to be most prevalent for my area at around 07:00 in the morning.  Looking at the radar etc though, I'm thinking it will be with me in around 3-4 hours and easily cleared me by 07:00.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    8 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

    I’m so confused are the best snow chances heading north into the Midlands now. Midlands forum going nuts with the system a lot further north? Please don’t say this will turn into a midlands event again. 😡😡😡

    I think the initial front will push through as forecast with a period of snow for many ( a few hours.)

     How far north it gets will determine if the Midlands people see any snow at all, and it then effects the stall/pivot when it then heads back south.

    The further south it stays the more chance the stall/pivot will have an effect on our region rather than the Midlands.

    Although saying that light snow could fall within the wider area regardless of the main band.

    Radar and window will be the best bet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead

    Some very intense ppn on the radar to our west. It gathering some strength. 

    It also has some sleet within it, even out at sea to our west (unusal), which bodes very well for when it hits land...

    And to top it off, lightening currently being detected at Scilly Isles...

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    The front on radar further east than predicted but doesnt look any further north to me.

     

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