South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[ARTDEMOLE]

The Fog has descended here. Frrrosty here. 0.0c Humidiy 92%Rh

Edited January 23, 2021 by ARTDEMOLE

[festivalking]

Princetown upgrade all day heavy snow for tomorrow. Sleet here on and off.  However it looks after the initial band comes through it turns to showers so I can't believe Princetown will be snowing all day!

[Frank Trough]

Met office suggesting cold rain here which seems in line with some of modelling (and would not be a massive surprise to anyone in this neck of the woods). I get what mapantz was saying, from my point of view a few flakes mixed with rain doesn’t excite me that much. 
 

my children would love just to see some wet flakes falling. Hey ho.

down here we really need an easterly with proper cold bedded in and then get lucky with a feature popping up. Nothing else really seems to cut it here.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

2 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Met office suggesting cold rain here which seems in line with some of modelling (and would not be a massive surprise to anyone in this neck of the woods). I get what mapantz was saying, from my point of view a few flakes mixed with rain doesn’t excite me that much. 
 

my children would love just to see some wet flakes falling. Hey ho.

down here we really need an easterly with proper cold bedded in and then get lucky with a feature popping up. Nothing else really seems to cut it here.

Exactly the same in this area too!  And I completely agree re the Easterly Tomasz Schafernaker on BBC weather just said South West coasts can expect rain / sleet rather than snow, so I for one won’t be rushing to get up in the morning as you can pretty much guarantee that’s what we’ll get here. I always live in hope though, forever the optimists 

[lettice]

A high of 8.9c at 1pm yesterday, 3c at midnight.
A low of 1c at 3:30am.
Now 1,4c, 994.1 hPa
Slight frost
Wind has been North Easterly since midnight and moving more NW this morning.

Forecasts for here still showing some Snow tomorrow morning

Edited January 23, 2021 by lettice

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I still use a combo of Google weather (which is about as good as anything else - almost an average of the accuracy of all the other models) and then I hop to Ventusky for the ‘snow cover’ modelling.

It may be a wildly unreliable system at times but it’s general trends I look for these days, not an award-winning Nostradamus-style perfect sixth sense.

Even with a day to go this thing could be intensified or wiped off the record - but there’s always something else to hold my interest if this all falls through (which it’s quite likely to do).

Good luck everyone, here’s hoping for a day of the white stuff with plenty more on its way over the coming month

Edited January 23, 2021 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

It really does remind me of February 1st 2019. If the weather system stalls anywhere you could be in for a day of steady snow as Tomasz Schafernaker hinted at this morning.

[chris55]

1 hour ago, jtay said:

Patchy cloud with another lovely frost this morning. Winter BBQ for lunch.

Arome 0z still fancies it down here, for tomorrow morning.

Liking the pivot on that!

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, as noted by many a white covering this morning..a decnet frost...with temperatures overnight of -0.9°C at: 01:23, now slowly warming as the cloud blocks the sun ...

Edited January 23, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

A few high Res models showing the projected forecast of the PPN, all at 09:00 tomorrow morning.  Firstly the Euro4;

Arome 0z;

WRF NMM 0z;

Netweather in house NMM (both SR & MR);

All modelling suggests a spell of snow over many inland parts of the West Country tomorrow morning, with detail such as intensity and distribution still amiss (as we come to expect).

I'll punt on the Mendips and Wiltshire uplands being the best places to be for now.  It doesn't look like the front hangs around for long though, as things stand, so I can't see notable accumulations to lower levels, just some brief coverings before it starts melting as soon as it stops snowing.  A little bit of interest for snow fans in the region though, even if it's nothing too major.

[iceman1991]

14 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

It really does remind me of February 1st 2019. If the weather system stalls anywhere you could be in for a day of steady snow as Tomasz Schafernaker hinted at this morning.

Remember that day very well  only ment to be couple hours of snow but ended up snowing all day here up Salisbury plain had well over 10 cm of snow  

[AWD]

A tweet from Ian discussing any potential accumalitve snowfall;

 

[Frosty_wsm]

Deleted. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Smartie

[Mark Parsons]

10 hours ago, TallPaul said:

Hey all, just literally decided to join the regionals, in anticipation of potential snow on Sunday...been following the main winter discussion so far (yep you guessed it, all looks potentially nailed/stonking/promising in 10 days from now...).....but within 60 secs of reading (in excited anticipation) I am really disheartened by some of your jibes at one another....

Be it rain, sleet, snow...kitchen sinks'...we have (potentially) an interesting February on the cards...let's in the meantime be nice to oneanother... sit back, grab a beer, and hit the radar refresh key with your bottle opener...

Our time will come...

Apologies for your first experience on the regionals, please understand there are many who have been on here for years! Straight to the point grown up chat was the intent nothing more.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Mark Parsons

[fromey]

1 hour ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

It really does remind me of February 1st 2019. If the weather system stalls anywhere you could be in for a day of steady snow as Tomasz Schafernaker hinted at this morning.

Ah Feb 1st 2019, didn’t expect as much as I got!!

it just kept going, the low just stalled over us

[Frank Trough]

24 minutes ago, fromey said:

Ah Feb 1st 2019, didn’t expect as much as I got!!

it just kept going, the low just stalled over us

I can’t remember that event at all? I guess it must have rained here or missed altogether. 

[Leon1]

17 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I can’t remember that event at all? I guess it must have rained here or missed altogether. 

This is the satellite image for 2nd Feb 2019, looks like it only snowed inland. It pivoted and ended up snowing for about 18 hours if I remember correct. 

We got about 15 to 20cm, I think it ended up being just more than what we got from Storm Emma.

[MidnightSnow]

 

 

The legendary stall of Feb 2019

Edited January 23, 2021 by MidnightSnow

[Frank Trough]

26 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

This is the satellite image for 2nd Feb 2019, looks like it only snowed inland. It pivoted and ended up snowing for about 18 hours if I remember correct. 

We got about 15 to 20cm, I think it ended up being just more than what we got from Storm Emma.

That’s a brilliant satellite image - the BCP snow desert sticking out beautifully no wonder I don’t remember it! 

[iceman1991]

Upgraded snow more now for my area hopefully this continues 7 hours of snow 

[alex12]

Doesnt look much for south of the region i don't think but all the best for those in the north of the region!

[Blizzard]

Few pics from 250-280m ASL in the Cotswolds (nr Leckhampton Hill) this morning to whet the appetite for hopefully the main event tomorrow.  Was from the rain/sleet/snow from yesterday evening.  Prob 1cm at max.  Very cold and icy this morning.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Blizzard

[Blizzard]

I think this is the start of the front that will hopefully give us all the Sunday snow....

[AWD]

Meto yellow advisory has been updated;

Glos, Wiltshire, BANES, Hampshire, Oxfordshire at highest risk, as per the below affected regions;

There is a separate Meto advisory out for overnight tonight for SW most parts of the region.  

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by AWD

[MidnightSnow]

The kind of setup where you could see a dusting, and a few miles down the road it could be a memorable day. (And vice versa)

As mentioned already, Feb 1st 2019 was similar and some of us lucked out big time. We weren't predicted much at all, but got around 4 or 5 inches. I think somewhere in our region has a good chance of a prolonged spell of snow. Looks like the further NE you are, the better.