South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Jayfromcardiff]

I wonder if we will all finally see a decent snow event. Fingers crossed.

[chris55]

59 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

A repeat of February 1st 2019 would be nice where the system stalled over our region and gave a day of steady snow. Nothing overly heavy but it soon built up.

I remember that well, the initial front that was well forecast (much more confidence than this weekends potential) was pretty weak and hardly made it up into Gloucestershire.

However the next morning we had that infamous “slantwise convection” set up and it gave a good 10-15cm overall in certain places.

it was really heavy at times! nice memories, hope we will at least see a few cms at the weekend  

 

 

[AWD]

Local Points West forecast presented by Ian F demonstrating the uncertain complexities regarding Sunday.  Definitely the potential for parts of the region to see some snowfall on Sunday, details like usual, elusive though.

[chris55]

Just watched Points West and Ians forecast was brilliant! He's got to be one of the best local forecasters!

He showed, ECM, UKMO and GFS predictions for the snow risk on Sunday! Each model shown individually on the forecast, with relevant ppn mapping for each model.

Basically, as we are aware, details uncertain, but the risk is there.

Edited January 21, 2021 by chris55

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

13 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Just watched Points West and Ians forecast was brilliant! He's got to be one of the best local forecasters!

Without doubt. Very professional. We are fortunate to have him as our local weatherman.

[chris55]

1 minute ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

Without doubt. Very professional. We are fortunate to have him as our local weatherman.

He was a great successor to the brilliant Mr Angwin! (I think he went over to AlJazera)

[suxer]

40 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Just watched Points West and Ians forecast was brilliant! He's got to be one of the best local forecasters!

He showed, ECM, UKMO and GFS predictions for the snow risk on Sunday! Each model shown individually on the forecast, with relevant ppn mapping for each model.

Basically, as we are aware, details uncertain, but the risk is there.

Hope we don't get the met office version 

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, suxer said:

Hope we don't get the met office version 

It's always worrying when one model is against the snow.

[chris55]

UKMO has been a bit volatile in the last 48h

We had this at 72 this time yesterday for Saturday at 12pm!

[Jayfromcardiff]

31 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO has been a bit volatile in the last 48h

We had this at 72 this time yesterday for Saturday at 12pm!

Watch this go down to the wire and miss us.

[chris55]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Watch this go down to the wire and miss us.

Hopefully not, but as the forecast has been so all over the place it wouldn't surprise me.

GFS 12z looked like a good bet to me but who knows. Should be clearer in the next 24 hours you would think. 

Would be great to see our region get at least one snowfall out of this period.

[Mapantz]

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

 

Not good for everyone then. Decent for the south coast though!

[Mapantz]

Some tasty minima on the 15Z..

 

However, the caveat with that is, it depends on any lying snowfall. So, not to be taken too seriously.

[Andy Bown]

It’s the first clear night since last Friday, the moon has grown from a crescent to a half without being seen!

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Rain for Isle of Wight?  

[chris55]

22 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

 

Which model is this Mapantz? thx

 

[Leon1]

The GFS at the moment is by far the best scenario for Sunday in the south. 

IMPORTANT: this is the 12z run so the 18z probably shows something different.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Leon1

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

The GFS at the moment is by far the best scenario for Sunday in the south. 

What site is that on? I wouldn't mind checking how much snow I may get.

[Leon1]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

What site is that on? I wouldn't mind checking how much snow I may get.

It's on windy.com

It's a really good website it has lots of options to look at.

[Mapantz]

18 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Which model is this Mapantz? thx

 

That's the MetOffice' UKV model Chris.

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's the MetOffice' UKV model Chris.

That ties in with Ians forecast earlier on Points West. EC/GFS with more ppn.

[matt111]

Cloudy all afternoon with a few showers around mid-afternoon. Reached 9.3°C, currently 4.2°C

[Rich_Clements]

22 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

It's on windy.com

It's a really good website it has lots of options to look at.

That is a really nice website, visually very appealing.

[BARRY]

temp currently 0.6c dewpoint 0.2c