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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: East Dartmoor
  • Location: East Dartmoor
    10 minutes ago, rug said:

    Not too far from there (Shaldon) so sea level, but the Beast of 2018 has given me a false sense of optimism, the snow here was incredible then.

    All I want is a few cm again, where I live that's enough to keep us happy!

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    GFS 18Z has the low on Tuesday just missing the majority of the southern coastal strip but clipping south-west Cornwall, hence the GFS's prediction of a couple of centimetres in the far south-west.  Thursday now has an area of light snow hitting a large part of Devon before the main band comes in, which is still predicted to bring rain to the south and west of this region, but snow for the north-east of the region.  In this run the mild air doesn't really penetrate far beyond the south-west, so I see that northern parts of Central S England are down as holding onto their lying snow for a while on this run.  I'd say the chances are growing that after the frontal attack on Thursday/Friday we may move into a cold and dry regime, rather than a mild and wet one.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    I'd gladly give up my minimal snow chances for all the South Coast, Devon and Cornwall to get a little bit. That's how much of a nice guy I am.

    😇

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    7 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    GFS 18Z has the low on Tuesday just missing the majority of the southern coastal strip but clipping south-west Cornwall, hence the GFS's prediction of a couple of centimetres in the far south-west.  Thursday now has an area of light snow hitting a large part of Devon before the main band comes in, which is still predicted to bring rain to the south and west of this region, but snow for the north-east of the region.  In this run the mild air doesn't really penetrate far beyond the south-west, so I see that northern parts of Central S England are down as holding onto their lying snow for a while on this run.  I'd say the chances are growing that after the frontal attack on Thursday/Friday we may move into a cold and dry regime, rather than a mild and wet one.

    Why are you discounting icon and aspege? ..   you were very sure earlier on it was all going to France. Back tracking I see? 

    Edited by CentralSouthernSnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow !!!!
  • Location: Devon
    8 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    I'd gladly give up my minimal snow chances for all the South Coast, Devon and Cornwall to get a little bit. That's how much of a nice guy I am.

    😇

    Not all heroes wear capes. We’d gladly accept your kind offer!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I'm not discounting them at all, just commenting on what the latest GFS run is showing.  The latest trend on the GFS/ECM has been to inch it a little further north, so if that trend is repeated in tomorrow's runs they should end up more or less in line with what ICON is currently showing.  Also 12Z ECM had a snow streamer breaking out on the system's northern flank (albeit mainly just near the coast), GFS 18Z disappointed me in that respect as it is a dry run for Tuesday but even that has some snow breaking out to the east of the frontal system on Thursday mainly over Devon.  Thus, I'd say definitely somewhat greater potential for Tuesday and even to some extent Thursday as things stand today than was the case yesterday. 

    I'm also keeping an eye on the system moving in through Saturday night into Sunday.  850s don't look cold enough to me, but that's not the only variable that governs the rain/snow chances and some runs have certainly had some of that turning to snow. 

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    4 minutes ago, rug said:

    Not all heroes wear capes. We’d gladly accept your kind offer!

    I only wear CAPE and Lift. I'll send my 0.1cm dusting right your way!

    Edited by kumquat
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    I've been busy, thanks.

    If that's a problem, PM me, instead of being rude.

    Not rude. It was a valid observation, IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: W. Sussex, E. Hants & Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, snow and ice. The usual.
  • Location: W. Sussex, E. Hants & Portsmouth
    4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    I only wear CAPE and Lift. I'll send my 0.1cm dusting right your way!

    The CAPE crusader? 😏

    Funny ol' day here, temperature was up and down by several degrees all day, and when the sun did show up it was pretty warm. Also had a lot of sharp showers and even some hail.

    Currently 3.0°C

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Really enjoyed soaking in the warm sun and activating the vit D this afternoon between cold downpours. Balmy 9C degrees is pretty pleasant even at this time of the year in a suntrap spot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Saturday midnight still shows a bit of interest on the Euro4 for the NE of the region and down towards Hants and possibly dropping into Dorset. I noticed that Ian Ferguson used the Euro 4 on his regional forecast earlier tonight.

    spacer.png

    Short term surprises could spring up anywhere that the cold air drops south. It's kind of exciting just to eek out any last flake of the white precipitation.

     

    Edited by kumquat
    Ian not Iain!
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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    24 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Saturday midnight still shows a bit of interest on the Euro4 for the NE of the region and down towards Hants and possibly dropping into Dorset. I noticed that Ian Ferguson used the Euro 4 on his regional forecast earlier tonight.

    spacer.png

    Short term surprises could spring up anywhere that the cold air drops south. It's kind of exciting just to eek out any last flake of the white precipitation.

     

    Will any settle though so quickly into cold spell. Ground still wet and no time to cool yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    10 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    Will any settle though so quickly into cold spell. Ground still wet and no time to cool yet.

    Yes you have changed your Avatar and this time round definitely no skiing booked...

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    10 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    Will any settle though so quickly into cold spell. Ground still wet and no time to cool yet.

    Yes. But only in Mull End.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Freezing rain. 😱 A quick look in the mod thread revealed one chart showing what is thought to be freezing rain for us. 😱 Does anyone else remember January 1996? 😱 I have never experienced anything like it and never want to again. 😱

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Sunny Bournemouth
  • Location: Sunny Sunny Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, noggin said:

    Freezing rain. 😱 A quick look in the mod thread revealed one chart showing what is thought to be freezing rain for us. 😱 Does anyone else remember January 1996? 😱 I have never experienced anything like it and never want to again. 😱

    Goodness yes. A 30 minute walk to work took over an hour, and I ripped a hole in my suit trousers on the third fall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    22 minutes ago, noggin said:

    Freezing rain. 😱 A quick look in the mod thread revealed one chart showing what is thought to be freezing rain for us. 😱 Does anyone else remember January 1996? 😱 I have never experienced anything like it and never want to again. 😱

    Sorry to be pedantic, but wasn't the freezing rain event at the end of December 1995?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    Yes, people were falling over like ninepins, including me! It is SO dangerous. My first fall was when I stepped out through the front door, I hadn't even seen it!  If we do get it again, I am not going anywhere! 😱

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    Just now, Don said:

    Sorry to be pedantic, but wasn't the freezing rain event at the end of December 1995?

    I knew roughly when it was, but checked on the Met Office website and it said 24th and 25th January. P.S. I don't mind the pedantics! 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    19 minutes ago, noggin said:

    I knew roughly when it was, but checked on the Met Office website and it said 24th and 25th January. P.S. I don't mind the pedantics! 😁

    Lol, sorry I was thinking about the December 30th 1995 freezing rain event, which had actually been forecast to be a snowy breakdown.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    3 hours ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Why are you discounting icon and aspege? ..   you were very sure earlier on it was all going to France. Back tracking I see? 

    Just picking up on another part of this, I don't think I was ever "very sure" that it was all going to France, just stating that in my experience these lows tend to get revised southwards near the time (due to models often overdeepening the lows), but there are certainly exceptions.  I'd only be very sure about it if it was being modelled to be well south of the English Channel at this time range, or if the GFS and ECMWF were sticking to current outputs at 1 day out.

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    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    I think for most of our region (more so in northeastern/eastern parts) though the outer bands of Storm Darcy could give a good covering in places, the streamer potential is more of note. 

    Eg. *if* we get a Thames streamer with winds from the ENE and a line of snow showers heading through London and down the M3 towards Basingstoke and maybe as far as Salisbury Plain.

    Streamers are hard to forecast - but something to watch Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. Could be some surprises.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
    3 hours ago, noggin said:

    Freezing rain. 😱 A quick look in the mod thread revealed one chart showing what is thought to be freezing rain for us. 😱 Does anyone else remember January 1996? 😱 I have never experienced anything like it and never want to again. 😱

    Yes I remember it well, I was living in Patchway at the time. I stepped out of my front door and slipped straight over on my back side. No cars were on the road as the ice was literally impossible to drive on. 

    I've seen a fair few big snowfalls in my time but that freezing rain produced by far the most treacherous conditions for pedestrians and motorists alike that I've ever known in my life. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    GAME ON for a south west snow event on Tuesday!!!!! Forecast could and will change but this is promising now the GFS is on board ( for this run anyway)

    Screenshot_20210206-043548_Meteociel.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I don’t want to overhype anyone but GFS is on board with taking the band further north and covering most of southwest with persistent heavy snow on Tuesday. I haven’t checked icon or aspege yet worth noting it could still change its track and miss us... let’s see. 

    D1F76370-3F26-4833-93E1-4C23769C3205.png

    Edited by CentralSouthernSnow
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