South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Snow Of '78]

Bit damp out on this afternoons stroll!

[Glenosnow]

Evening all,currently 8.5°C after topping out at 11.5°C......positively balmy......83%RH and 1.2mm of rain.

So a wet weekend rather than a white one for us far southerners....what a surprise .....oh well February to look forward to....let's hope we can get a decent fall of the white stuff soon....not holding my breath tho.........❄

[SilverWolf]

Well whatever any of us get in the next 24 hours, there is certainly more precipitation coming than last Sunday...

[Leon1]

@MidnightSnow Well the MAD thread is in full meltdown tonight! 

[MidnightSnow]

Every time the fairy tale charts change to an undesirable outcome, the model thread turns into a snipe-fest. It's a bit sad really, must be proper annoying for the mods.

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, Leon1 said:

@MidnightSnow Well the MAD thread is in full meltdown tonight! 

Timing 

[SilverWolf]

3 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

@MidnightSnow Well the MAD thread is in full meltdown tonight! 

I’m starting to think that some of the frequent posters in there don’t actually look out of the window or go outside anymore... 

Edit: I’ve actually posted a fair bit this evening, but I work outside, so I’ve got an excuse... 

Edited January 29, 2021 by SilverWolf

[Snow Of '78]

8 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Well the MAD thread is in full meltdown tonight!

Very entertaining!

[SilverWolf]

Here’s my expert prediction for the coming days for the South West region: 

Tomorrow! Horrible, wet, heavy rain for most from the off. Risk of 6 inches of snow anywhere east or north of Bristol, if more than 5m asl.

Sunday! A bit parky out generally, increasingly so all the way down to Penzance by nightfall. Sub zero throughout the Cotswolds due to the snowfields. 
 

Monday! Massive low pressure initially bringing sleet and then, 15 minutes later, heavy snow into far SW Cornwall, moving painfully slowly across the whole of the South West region. Stalling in a perfect line 30 miles north of the M4 then retreating painfully slowly to the South Coast. 

Tuesday! Mondays event hasn’t finished yet because it was painfully slow. 
 

Wednesday! Gloriously blue skies everywhere, max temp 0.5c at 1pm, so small risk of icicles for the uninsulated. Amazingly clear stars at night.  
 

Thursday! See Wednesday. 
 

Friday! Rinse and repeat. 

[khodds]

19 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Here’s my expert prediction for the coming days for the South West region: 

Tomorrow! Horrible, wet, heavy rain for most from the off. Risk of 6 inches of snow anywhere east or north of Bristol, if more than 5m asl.

Sunday! A bit parky out generally, increasingly so all the way down to Penzance by nightfall. Sub zero throughout the Cotswolds due to the snowfields. 
 

Monday! Massive low pressure initially bringing sleet and then, 15 minutes later, heavy snow into far SW Cornwall, moving painfully slowly across the whole of the South West region. Stalling in a perfect line 30 miles north of the M4 then retreating painfully slowly to the South Coast. 

Tuesday! Mondays event hasn’t finished yet because it was painfully slow. 
 

Wednesday! Gloriously blue skies everywhere, max temp 0.5c at 1pm, so small risk of icicles for the uninsulated. Amazingly clear stars at night.  
 

Thursday! See Wednesday. 
 

Friday! Rinse and repeat. 

Ha! We can dream!!

[Mapantz]

Snow depths up until Saturday..

As for the outlook here; wet, dry, wet, dry, wet, dry, wet. Nothing cold or frosty in sight.

I'm ready for an early Spring now. Something mild, dry and sunny, so that I can get out in to the garden and start doing some work.

[birdman]

1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

@MidnightSnow Well the MAD thread is in full meltdown tonight! 

It's like a bunch of drug addicts looking for the next hit followed by the inevitable crushing low of cold turkey. They literally repeat that day after day, a truly unique bunch very entertaining though and of course informative too 

[Paul T]

Heres my view on the weekend...

Saturday. Almost zero chance of lying snow in the south west. Its virtually Impossible and any model saying it will happen is almost certainly wrong. You might get a wet snow flake later in the day. Very poor 850 temps, poor thickness and no entrenched cold = no... in my experience of this "chase" for 20 years. To confirm - maybe some wet snow in the afternoon, but a whiteout in the SW...no chance.

Sunday. Chances of sleet or perhaps wet snow in the more North East area of the region. Could turn into something on Sunday night and Monday...it has potential.

Looking forward to the Easterly next weekend also... exciting times.

[matt111]

Mostly cloudy and dry for a change although not for much longer. Reached 11.4°C, currently 7.7°C

Edited January 29, 2021 by matt111

[CheesepuffScott]

Cloudy all day with patchy drizzle earlier, rain approaching now... reached 10.0°C

Currently 6.5°C

[kumquat]

1 hour ago, Paul T said:

Heres my view on the weekend...

Saturday. Almost zero chance of lying snow in the south west. Its virtually Impossible and any model saying it will happen is almost certainly wrong. You might get a wet snow flake later in the day. Very poor 850 temps, poor thickness and no entrenched cold = no... in my experience of this "chase" for 20 years. To confirm - maybe some wet snow in the afternoon, but a whiteout in the SW...no chance.

Sunday. Chances of sleet or perhaps wet snow in the more North East area of the region. Could turn into something on Sunday night and Monday...it has potential.

Looking forward to the Easterly next weekend also... exciting times.

Agree with all that but even still, unconvinced by the Easterly next week. Could well happen but will be dry for our part of the world.

If we get entrenched cold from it and then some fronts bumping into it, then, yes, maybe. But we all know it takes something special for anything beyond a couple of day's dusting around here, or a late night wet snow event that is gone by midday the next day. Models look full of promise, but that has been the case for a long time now (this season).

[kumquat]

ps where's the Edit button gone?

EDIT: Oh, it's come back! lol what happened there?

Edited January 30, 2021 by kumquat

[kumquat]

Here comes the rain that might turn to snow on its second passover sometime tomorrow. 

[bellanite]

Morning all.

The rainfall over night has been impressive had 19.5mm since about 2am and it's still hammering it down.

Current temp 5.2°C and slowly falling.

Very doubtful about any snow later if anything think it will be a sleety mix. Hope I'm wrong. Higher up may have a better chance.

[SteveB]

Well, some were saying we needed rain earlier this month! I suspect the grim 100mm+ might be breached before end of tomorrow. 

Currently 91.2mm, so there's your much needed rain.

I for one wouldn't give a damn if it didn't rain again until September, but we all know that isn't going to happen (don't we) instead I suspect there will be many more 100mm+ months this year.

[SilverWolf]

Morning, just ran the radar animation back from an hour ago, with precipitation type on, and a large amount of the rain over the Midlands and then east is rapidly turning to sleet in a southerly and westerly direction. It looks like it might be snowing in Norfolk now (I know these radars aren’t 100% accurate). So see what happens! I’ve never bought into the idea snow it won’t settle because it’s rained for ages - the only reason snow won’t settle on wet ground is when it’s really wet snow in the first place, which implies it’s a bit above freezing. We shall see! I’m a bit hopeful of falling snow here, but probably the wet type, so just a covering for the hill tops later? 

[lettice]

A high of 11.4c at 1pm yesterday, 8.3c at midnight and a low now of 7.3c
A lot of rain so far today, 16mm since 1am
992.1 hPa, Easterly wind 14-16mph with plenty of 20-24mph gusts

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Well I’m glad we didn’t have a warning for snow over the southern part of our region after a quick jog round the regionals this morning along with looking at the latest radar. Nothing much happening so looking increasingly like a bust.

Not looking good for those under a yellow warning next Mon-Wed either. Fully expect the Met to either scale back or remove that large yellow warning.

Edit: Just after posting this saw that the Met have indeed scaled back the Mon-Wed yellow warning to further north removing its southern extent and to Tuesday only.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Wiltshireweatherwatcher
Met office warning update.

[SilverWolf]

Well it’s increasingly ‘wintry’ just north of our region, and it has stalled. Will it fizzle out? Will it retreat south soon? There are some heavy bursts not that far where I am, certainly heavier than last week... 

[Adrian Major]

17 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Well it’s increasingly ‘wintry’ just north of our region, and it has stalled. Will it fizzle out? Will it retreat south soon? There are some heavy bursts not that far where I am, certainly heavier than last week...