Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[blitzen]

Blimey, that was quick.   Lights are on!   30mins tops!  Thank you Fife Council!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Ruzzi - 188m asl said:

My nerves are still shattered at the thought of missing out on the streamers, I'm not worried about westward extent, but I can't help but think I'll miss the worst of the convective snow due to being just that wee bit too far south. I think the northern most parts of lanarkshire will fair ok, Kilsyth for example and then it looks a given that Angus, Perth and parts of Fife will be dumped on. 

Reasons to remain hopeful but with the cracking updates from @LomondSnowstorm

I reckon Tuesday evening into Wednesday will be my best chance but we shall see. Stranger things have happened I guess. 

The thing that is letting me keep the faith is the synoptic chart for the day of the Red weather warning in 2018.... A clear south of east draw from the continent albeit with a stronger flow, so many a surprise may materialise but my nerves would be far reduced if that flow just crept a bit more north of east to raise the prospects for the central belt a bit more. 

Here is the synoptic chart for the day of the red weather warning for anyone else that's jittery

 

I'm with you on this - as modelled the gradient north to south across North Lanarkshire is pretty stark to the point where Coatbridge and Caldercruix are both right on the edge of it. I do think it'll be a bit less cut and dry than that given how much the bands move north/south but we'll see what happens. I will definitely be taking full advantage of the local authority plus 5 mile for exercise rule if it does work out like modelled though

[Eastern Scotland WX]

7 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

My nerves are still shattered at the thought of missing out on the streamers, I'm not worried about westward extent, but I can't help but think I'll miss the worst of the convective snow due to being just that wee bit too far south. I think the northern most parts of lanarkshire will fair ok, Kilsyth for example and then it looks a given that Angus, Perth and parts of Fife will be dumped on. 

Reasons to remain hopeful but with the cracking updates from @LomondSnowstorm

I reckon Tuesday evening into Wednesday will be my best chance but we shall see. Stranger things have happened I guess. 

The thing that is letting me keep the faith is the synoptic chart for the day of the Red weather warning in 2018.... A clear south of east draw from the continent albeit with a stronger flow, so many a surprise may materialise but my nerves would be far reduced if that flow just crept a bit more north of east to raise the prospects for the central belt a bit more. 

Here is the synoptic chart for the day of the red weather warning for anyone else that's jittery

 

its our turn to get the big streamers , those areas you just mentioned didn't do as well during the bfte

[asjmcguire]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

Forgot about the outside front door light!  At least I can see now that it's sleeting a bit amongst the rain!.  Got to get up and look out of the window though.   Not nearly as handy as the lamppost!

1.7c/1.3c/E/14mph/1017/raining with a bit of sleet mixed in/total today (so far) 10mm.

An IP camera stuck in a window, that's what you need. (Mine is actually a Raspberry Pi)

[metallikat34]

9 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I'm with you on this - as modelled the gradient north to south across North Lanarkshire is pretty stark to the point where Coatbridge and Caldercruix are both right on the edge of it. I do think it'll be a bit less cut and dry than that given how much the bands move north/south but we'll see what happens. I will definitely be taking full advantage of the local authority plus 5 mile for exercise rule if it does work out like modelled though

Question for you and really anyone in the group. Any papers on the dynamics of snow streamers off the North Sea?

[asjmcguire]

56 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

You're ignoring the fact that the radar is claptrap for many places.

Tell me about it, the radar has had me down for sleet and snow for most of the day.....

Sure... let's go and build a snowman

[asjmcguire]

29 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

@edo..... that is making me absolutely speechless! , i just wanna like faint. 

I'll probably be in a gap between all the snow - the only place in the East to not see any snow at all...

[drm]

2 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

Tell me about it, the radar has had me down for sleet and snow for most of the day.....

Sure... let's go and build a snowman

The radar has been poor to very poor regarding snow for a while now ,typical now we get the temps down and dew points good and the precipitation vanishes let's hope the snow machine has its tanks full and starts up soon 

[LomondSnowstorm]

5 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Question for you and really anyone in the group. Any papers on the dynamics of snow streamers off the North Sea?

This is a good question, and something I'd quite fancy writing myself in future if no one else has by then

There are some on specific events, this for example (although it's basically just a Met Office description)

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.3469?casa_token=nGUomhVbnCwAAAAA%3A2Kx4wRRQlyXPGLEhzqnFgf6SZIQ4BxOOPV2_8UYL5K4ExquP9TrNkw5qpWEIv-0mIPmn1W9C5GBMru4

But I'm sure I've read more substantive papers somewhere ( @lorenzo?). Most of our knowledge of this is really based on experience of following this with a sprinkling of theory but I would be very interested to read more on this actually.

 

[Benvironment]

It’s been snowing intermittently much of the day here but has only started settling in the last hour. 1C with a light white dusting on the ground. Still feels wet out there though.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Liking the streamers symbol (convergence lines) on the latest Fax chart

[Stormeh]

26 minutes ago, Ruzzi - 188m asl said:

My nerves are still shattered at the thought of missing out on the streamers, I'm not worried about westward extent, but I can't help but think I'll miss the worst of the convective snow due to being just that wee bit too far south. I think the northern most parts of lanarkshire will fair ok, Kilsyth for example and then it looks a given that Angus, Perth and parts of Fife will be dumped on. 

I always feel the same here being too far west and further south to get anything during an easterly. I had the same feeling back in 2018 but we got a good dumping of snow, not as much as further east obviously but more than enough to keep myself and the kids happy for days

 

I can also remember a few snow events when I was a young boy and teenager getting lots of snow showers and streamers moving in from the east. In my old house where I lived with my parents my bedroom faced East. I still remember to this day sitting watching snow showers and streamers move in towards me from the East. 

Anything is possible over the next few days and I won’t be disappointed if I do miss out as I have had 3 decent snow events this winter so far. This thread will be busy as many of us are in for a good dumping I feel

[Polar Gael]

1 hour ago, Sawel said:

Wanna bet? There could be 2 Beasts from the East if the models are to be believed. 

Get in!

[LomondSnowstorm]

28 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

My nerves are still shattered at the thought of missing out on the streamers, I'm not worried about westward extent, but I can't help but think I'll miss the worst of the convective snow due to being just that wee bit too far south. I think the northern most parts of lanarkshire will fair ok, Kilsyth for example and then it looks a given that Angus, Perth and parts of Fife will be dumped on. 

Reasons to remain hopeful but with the cracking updates from @LomondSnowstorm

I reckon Tuesday evening into Wednesday will be my best chance but we shall see. Stranger things have happened I guess. 

The thing that is letting me keep the faith is the synoptic chart for the day of the Red weather warning in 2018.... A clear south of east draw from the continent albeit with a stronger flow, so many a surprise may materialise but my nerves would be far reduced if that flow just crept a bit more north of east to raise the prospects for the central belt a bit more. 

Here is the synoptic chart for the day of the red weather warning for anyone else that's jittery

 

Not sure if this is a consolation or not, but I did dig up the EURO4 for the day before the red warning:

 

and the reality (well for the day after that, although most of the snow did fall on the red warning day further west from what I recall):

It wasn't too bad to be honest in distribution, but certainly underestimated depths and extent too (the map doesn't have depths for Cumbernauld for example which was completely buried).

 

 

[Mair Snaw]

29 minutes ago, drm said:

The radar has been poor to very poor regarding snow for a while now ,typical now we get the temps down and dew points good and the precipitation vanishes let's hope the snow machine has its tanks full and starts up soon 

Radar already has showers building and moving toward us so im guessing the engine is running.. 

[edo]

1 hour ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

@edo..... that is making me absolutely speechless! , i just wanna like faint. 

 we might lose Tim to a heart attack

[Mair Snaw]

25 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Liking the streamers symbol (convergence lines) on the latest Fax chart

Im liking the look of that..❄❄

[TinyTim]

2 minutes ago, edo said:

 we might lose Tim to a heart attack

LOL! Then I'd die happy  

[drm]

2 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Radar already has showers building and moving toward us so im guessing the engine is running.. 

Indeed they are popping up now aimed more at your location for now than me ,mind you temps now at 1.4 c here it was 0.8 c earlier dp are fine though at -2c

[howham]

3 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Im liking the look of that..❄❄

You and me both!

[101_North]

0.9c - coldest temp for a while. Whatever happens from now and through next week will thankfully be better than the week just past! 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

4 minutes ago, edo said:

 we might lose Tim to a heart attack

[Mair Snaw]

And just like that a very light snaw shower started here...❄❄

[lorenzo]

Some inspiration from the Netherlands...

 

[edo]

was just up in Letham and it was purely snow flakes falling although it was very light as after raining for about 4 days straight the precip is clearing. I am happy though if sky to clear and give us the palette cleanser of hardening up the ground

Edited February 6, 2021 by edo