Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Ross B]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 well with the models really struggling with the low anyone could see snow if it behaves itself

I wouldn't worry, they've already got this evenings forecast wrong saying that snow will start to fall on the hills... when the hills are already white and the snow line is coming down towards 100m! 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Definitely snow here, struggling to really make much of an impact as far as settling goes but it's certainly trending in the right direction.

[Michael Kaii]

Just rain here with the slightest hint of sleet  

[scottishandy]

Rather wet here and has washed all this away from this morning. 

So had to go up above 300m to find dry snow, bit windy though. 

[101_North]

Can see the snow line slowly coming down the hill here. Probably down to 170m or so. Hopefully start sticking properly here soon enough provided it continues.  

[aggy]

Heaviest snow all day however really not sticking need alot heavier for that to happen 

[Ravelin]

Not sure I like the look of the GFS 12z for Friday....

   

Currently 1.2/-0.7C here but showers staying resolutely to the south of me.

[101_North]

Snowline now at 101 level again 

[JoeShmoe]

The GFS today has done away with any properly cold easterly until early next week now (if at all) .. not a good trend tbh.

[Polar Side]

Starting to settle now.

 

[metallikat34]

3 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Snowline now at 101 level again 

Sticking?

I've got sleet and no accumulation here at 100m 

[101_North]

4 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Sticking?

I've got sleet and no accumulation here at 100m 

Yep. Sticking. Radar potentially looking good too for a wee spell of heavier stuff later. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by 101_North

[LomondSnowstorm]

16 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

The GFS today has done away with any properly cold easterly until early next week now (if at all) .. not a good trend tbh.

The UKMO is still solid

GFS is a bit frustrating and nail biting but just about alright for here from Sunday on:

I am a bit concerned certainly because we aren't too many changes away from a significantly worse outcome but we should hopefully get a resolution on the pesky low by this time tomorrow.

 

What I would say is I think a 'clean' transition to an easterly is less likely, not that most of us could really describe the current conditions as clear cut, but I'd think the low will at least hang around enough on Thursday and early Friday to cause continued marginality but also potentially significant snowfall, most likely but not exclusively for Aberdeenshire.

 

The GEM (which I unfairly overlook sometimes relative to its performance) looks solid too

Edited February 2, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[blitzen]

1.8c/1.1c/993/wet and windy! ............             Where's my snow?!!  I'm slowly TOORPING!!

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Blitzen

[scott125]

Snow heavier in East Kilbride and now have a wet covering.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Encouraging signs at the nearest weather station (Airdrie) ahead of the next lot of heavier stuff moving in, down to 0.6/0.2:

Just stating to get going but it's certainly snow here

[grifter]

Just pishin pish here, well nothing much happening at all now!

[snowlessayr]

Snow needs to be much heavier to lay here, but at least it is snowing 

[metallikat34]

32 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

The UKMO is still solid

GFS is a bit frustrating and nail biting but just about alright for here from Sunday on:

I am a bit concerned certainly because we aren't too many changes away from a significantly worse outcome but we should hopefully get a resolution on the pesky low by this time tomorrow.

 

What I would say is I think a 'clean' transition to an easterly is less likely, not that most of us could really describe the current conditions as clear cut, but I'd think the low will at least hang around enough on Thursday and early Friday to cause continued marginality but also potentially significant snowfall, most likely but not exclusively for Aberdeenshire.

 

The GEM (which I unfairly overlook sometimes relative to its performance) looks solid too

Careful with using the GFS deterministic too much right now. Suffering from some significant skill drop out

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just now, metallikat34 said:

Careful with using the GFS deterministic too much right now. Suffering from some significant skill drop out

Given what it's showing compared to the other models I'm very happy to put a health warning on its output

[metallikat34]

1 minute ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Given what it's showing compared to the other models I'm very happy to put a health warning on its output

Me too! But i am trying to find some evidence to back that statement up.....

[Zerouali lives]

Quite an intense hail / graupel shower in Aberdeen city centre ahead of the front which has partially made the ground white - never expected that.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Zerouali lives

[Ross B]

After a day of wet snow it's finally starting to settle here on this next band of precip   From the traffic cam it looks as if the higher areas of town at about 200m have a good covering already.

[Cheggers]

Wet and wild. 

[metallikat34]

4 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Me too! But i am trying to find some evidence to back that statement up.....

I stand corrected. I am completely wrong. GFS (purple line) has outperformed every model over the past few days. I don't ever remember seeing that before.