Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Quinach]

Got to laugh, warning for snow and the Met Office forecast is for..... cloud!

Got down to -5c last night, so not as cold as the night before.

Currently 0c in calm conditions.  The sun is trying its best to appear but the Permagloom™ shield is holding up well.

[Hawesy]

Another thing I’ve been thinking about: the warnings themselves. We’ve seen a lot of them in the last few weeks, quite often for the potential for small amounts of snow at low levels (1-3cm).

Should there be a warning for every instance/risk of snow or does it desensitise people so that when a more impactful snowfall does occur the warning might be ignored?

Not saying I have the answer here but I do know anecdotally from people at work that they ignore the yellow warnings because ‘it never comes to anything’.

In Canada for example snowfall warnings tend to be for 15cm or more (depending on the part of the country). I’m definitely not suggesting that approach - very different climate. But they put out ‘advisories’ and ‘special weather statements’ for more low risk/less impactful events and I do wonder if that would be a good way to go?

Or is low level snow such a rarity that people should be warned of every possibility of it happening?

[Quinach]

3 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Another thing I’ve been thinking about: the warnings themselves. We’ve seen a lot of them in the last few weeks, quite often for the potential for small amounts of snow at low levels (1-3cm).

Should there be a warning for every instance/risk of snow or does it desensitise people so that when a more impactful snowfall does occur the warning might be ignored?

Not saying I have the answer here but I do know anecdotally from people at work that they ignore the yellow warnings because ‘it never comes to anything’.

The snow warnings for here have so far turned to nothing, so I am not surprised people ignore them.  Their default action these days is to just issue warnings at the slightest risk, that way they do not get any further reputational loss.  Got to preserve that reputation prior to them getting privatized!

Just checked the Norwegian Met Office and their forecast is radically different for here, so what to believe....

[Northernlights]

Fine sunny day but still frosty . Lots of birds at the feeders with two mistle thrushes being new visitors today.

[Dundeeguy]

Another light snow shower in dundee this morning- gave a light covering. dundee including in yellow weather This week
 

“Coastal areas” is a difficult one because in dundee for example areas around the coast near broughty ferry city centre etc are below 30 metres and under and rarely get snow, 

 

go 2/3 miles inland to higher up areas of dundee - about 70 to about 150 metres above sea level And it’s a complete different story. City centre could have nothing or a slight dusting and where I live in dundee could have 2-3 cm 

[blitzen]

1.3c/0.0c/998/ENE.

 

 

[howham]

Previously, I've seen rain in Aberdeen but get to about the turn off for Kingsgate off the B999 and it's settling snow.  This winter, it seems much, much further inland...

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon peeps! Just been out for a wee bimble aroond, highest temp today was 2.6c, now down to -0.2c. Fresh and clear, could be a bit of a nightmare driving anywhere tomorrow morning though, which unfortunately I have to do. Ah well, we'll see how it is. 

[A Winter's Tale]

It looks like the mean temperature for Glasgow airport will be around 1.3C. Since 1973 only 1979, 1985, 1987 and 2010 had lower values and this month is tied with December 2009 and February 2010 as the fourth coldest since 1988 with only December 1995 and January and December 2010 being colder. So a notably cold month but more so for the lack of above average temperatures rather than severe low temperatures. The maximum has reached or exceeded 7C on 5 occasions and lows have been 2C or higher only 6 times this month - both totals fewer than 2010. 

January 2021 reminds me a little of February 2010 which was statistically notably cold but the weather was mostly quiet and unexciting. In the past milder months with a more active Atlantic have seen more potent episodes of cold and snow. Numerous  other months had lower highs than the 1C recorded this month and January 2015 and 2019 both had two snowfalls of more than 2 inches compared to one fall of 4cm this year. On the other hand some parts of the south east of Scotland and places with height have had a more than decent January for snowfall. 

 

Overall it has been a very respectable if unremarkable month with the first half in particular seeing lots of fine winter sunshine, some very cold nights including -11C and  a number of snowfalls leaving a covering. The second half has been generally below average but cloudier and less cold at night with a few attempts at frontal snowfalls being to marginal to deliver more than a brief cover of slush.

Certainly a helluva lot better than recent years (especially the last couple) but we’ve lacked established blocking injecting proper cold air and delivering more widespread, heavier and less marginal snowfalls and longer lasting and deeper snow cover. Hopefully the next couple of weeks we’ll be rewarded with something special. The past few weeks have seen the models promise tantalising Synoptics only for it to be watered down leaving us on the margins of significant cold - sadly this hasn’t been too uncommon in the last nine years. For once it would be great if we could finally see the promise of proper high latitude blocking coming to fruition. If it does, then we could be looking at the most significant cold spell in the heart of winter (mid Jan-mid Feb) since 1991. A more watered down version could still be fairly notable like February 2009 but there’s still the chance things go pear shaped like Feb 2012. At the very least early February is looking cold with some chances for snow.

I’m keeping an eye on the potential frontal snowfall next week which could  be impressive in some areas. I’m hoping we all end up with a good dumping of snow but I always keep expectations low in set ups like this. More often than not we see frontal snow end up further south than originally forecast, or too marginal or light for accumulations. Here’s hoping we end up with an all snow event which settles. 

[Ravelin]

Short snow shower earlier but other than that it's been a mix of cloud with the odd sunny spell and a high of -0.3C so most likely an ice day.

As for looking ahead, I'm assuming the latest XC forecast is based on the GFS 6Z....

 

Now that would be memorable!

[MildCarlilse]

+3c here after slight frost.East wind,10mph.Where is here?...Port of Ness...looking over to mainland Scotland,44 miles away.

[Steven morrison]

So as a newbie,can I ask is it time to start greasing the runners on the sledge or not? There seems much rollercoaster stuff going on in the models forum however my go to is here where it’s local

love reading all the threads

cheers

[pdiddy]

1 minute ago, Steven morrison said:

So as a newbie,can I ask is it time to start greasing the runners on the sledge or not? There seems much rollercoaster stuff going on in the models forum however my go to is here where it’s local

love reading all the threads

cheers

All a bit marginal, I think.  Likely to see snow to low levels at times (especially so inland, so better news for you).  More likely to be wintry mix for me.

[Sanserit]

So much for my bird watch, I think it was just too cold for our feathered friends to come to the feeders today.  Light snow just started falling in Banchory which wasn't forecast as far as I could see, coinciding with the temperature beginning to fall from the heady heights of 0.8c maximum. Current temperature 0.2c, DP -1.3c , fingers crossed it gets heavier and gives us a decent covering at long last.

[Ravelin]

 

10 minutes ago, Sanserit said:

So much for my bird watch, I think it was just too cold for our feathered friends to come to the feeders today.

We just did it too and there were a lot less than we normally see, both in species and in numbers. 

Temperature back down to -1.7/-2.6C so barring something miraculous it's an ice day with a max of -0.3C at around 13:15hrs.

It looks as if the GFS 12z is going for a shorter lived easterly, but replacing it with a northerly. Either will normally do for me.

   

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Ravelin

[Russsty]

20 minute snow shower just over Stonehaven. Laid in patches. Best iv'e seen so far this winter.

[Stormeh]

Just back from a beautiful walk around the local countryside. I hope to see this area covered in snow over the next week or so 

 

 

 

 

[doctormog]

No snow showers here in this part of the city but I managed to spy a few when I was out for a walk on the edge of the city.

 

[Sanserit]

4 hours ago, Blitzen said:

Oh sh*t!.............I'm an AGED Snow Queen then!

You and me both, my daughter wasn't born till 1992, KW is the same age as my son ...I feel old!!!  And I also remember 'the wrong type of snow' and laughing hysterically at the saft southerners at the time.

[Benvironment]

My local patch this evening. I don't want it to end. Ever! 

 

[mardatha]

Got an email from my next door neighbour in the old house. They've had snow continuously since just after xmas and over a foot in two days more recently.  I am ashamed to admit I don't miss it as much as I thought I would.. Pics;

 

[aggy]

Looks like an upgrade for central belt on the 12z gfs .

[BurntFishTrousers]

So is Wed gonna be another of these with great potential but the occluded front warm sector scuppers everything. Happened 3 times recently. 

[scottishandy]

Are we still playing XC weather bingo? I got 101cm Monday to Saturday!

Off to count for Aberfeldy  - reckon that could be ground zero. JFF

Nope only 96cm in Feldy, any other guesses?

Edited January 31, 2021 by scottishandy

[Penicuikblizzard]

35 minutes ago, aggy said:

Looks like an upgrade for central belt on the 12z gfs .

Is that for the frontal event or the Easterly at the end of the week