Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Hairy Celt]

3 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Right something for the ornithologists on here we have huge flocks of pigeons , crows and seagulls in every field. These would all be measured in thousands. Explanation? Pigeon numbers augmented by others from Scandinavia.Not so sure about the crows.but seagulls could also be fleeing the extreme cold over Scandinavian waters.

Witness the temperature in Lerwick /Baltasound  of  -5c  to -7c just now that is colder than the top of Cairngorm.

My feeling since the beginning of winter has been that February will be very cold and frosty and this is the direction from which it will come and with us on the  boundary it may come very suddenly with little chance of it being forecast.Nature seems to be reacting to this as well.

Currently 1c calm cloudy and dry

 

Is it unusual to have large numbers of those birds in a cold, snowy spell?  We have some of those round here on farmland but no more than I would expect. Land here has gone back and forth from a thin covering of snow and just patchy ice (after an evening's rain has frozen up) - what is noticeable is the number of sparrows, chaffinches and bramblings. As yet no waxwings here.

[Northernlights]

3 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Is it unusual to have large numbers of those birds in a cold, snowy spell?  We have some of those round here on farmland but no more than I would expect. Land here has gone back and forth from a thin covering of snow and just patchy ice (after an evening's rain has frozen up) - what is noticeable is the number of sparrows, chaffinches and bramblings. As yet no waxwings here.

@Hairy Celt I think the most unusual flock is the thousands of sea gulls coming into the local stubble fields at the end of every afternoon to stay the night as most grain has now been eaten. Several  non farming neighbours have commented  about it and I never seen this timing before and in such vast numbers almost as if there is a massive storm at sea when there isn"t one right now .

[Klippie]

It started snowing here just before I went to bed last night I managed to get a lamp post shot...the flakes were huge but didn't show up too well in the pic.

It covered pretty quickly so my hopes were high for a decent wee snow fall overnight.

Something I've been interested in recently is the temperature of the bottom of the cloud layer, I realise pointing an infrared thermometer at the sky is not a very accurate method but it gives a reading all the same.

So late afternoon on Sunday the cloud reading was -11.8deg/C and when it started to snow -1.2deg/C a massive difference in temperature when the snow arrived, come the morning there was a slighly crunchy slushy mess hardly anything had accumulated, and during the day we had light drizzle making it thawed out a bit.

Current temperatures are...

Cloud -7.2deg/C

Ground -1.2deg/C

Air +0.6deg/C

Thursday is showing sleet and rain for here (gutted)...hopefully some will get another good fall of snaw to keep this so far excellent winter going for a while yet.

 

 

 

[Polar Gael]

Snaw came back on a bit before lunchtime today - and stayed on. Another couple of cm added. Now lighter and a bit sleetier. Currently 0.1°C/0°C and a bit of the drip, drip, drip on the go.

Bodes well for Thursday. Nothing especially mild in the outlook. Below average to cauld looks the form horse. 

[101_North]

Horrible morning! Grey, misty and damp! Slow thaw continues! I'm not buying the GFS tomorrow as it looks out on a limb with widespread snow! Who knows what could happen but there's currently a familiar feel about the weather here after a good few weeks of madness

Edited January 27, 2021 by 101_North

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! Current temp here 3.1c, dry, calm and cloudy. Snow has all but disappeared which makes it a lot easier to drive and get around in. According to XC I'm in for around 8 - 9cm of snow tomorrow. i doubt it. More likely to be the old favourite of sleet. Might get some rubbish cleared from the garden now that I can see what's what!

[Cheggers]

1c and pea soup 

[WhiteXmas]

11 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all 

Had a bit of everything today - heavy rain, sleet and about fifty wet snowflakes! 

Still a couple of hours of precipitation for some of us - rain, sleet or snow? It’s hard to even care anymore!  

Next opportunity as we all know is Thursday!

Few snapshots below - lots going on before and after these timeframes on the day.

04:00

 

12:00

 

As per the Met Office warning that risk above continues into Friday - higher ground favoured.

Snowfall risk also showing for Sunday/Monday - Met Office bring the front through earlier than the ECM.

12:00

 

 

15:00

 

Monday 12:00

 

As ever subject to change/timing on all the charts above - some will get lucky and others will wonder what all the fuss is about!

Will it be rain, sleet or snow below roughly two hundred meters!? The marginal theme continues! 

All the best to you all.

Thursday does look promising, the models still supporting that. Let's see if we get further confirmation/confluence on the next update!

[JoeShmoe]

Really foggy here today and feels much milder .. a nice change tbh not to be ice skating when taking the dog out !

[mardatha]

Nice dry mild morning here with blue sky in bits. Husband went a walk Sunday and took this pic, he wasnt sure which way he was facing or even where he was!

[blitzen]

Morning.

0.9c/0.6c/NE/Calm/1008.2.

 

[shuggee]

5.4C at dawn - positively Mediterranean. Didn't wear a hat outside 

No snow day today, green again...

[blitzen]

17 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Nice dry mild morning here with blue sky in bits. Husband went a walk Sunday and took this pic, he wasnt sure which way he was facing or even where he was!

 think it's a man thing!   Nice pic tho'!

Edited January 27, 2021 by Blitzen

[Penicuikblizzard]

A miserable grey morning but feeling much milder today 

[Northernlights]

Misty ,raining , calm and 2c with lots of ice everywhere. Not my favourite type of weather!!!!

 

On the subject of these massive flocks of seagulls there is no ploughing going on because the ground is so wet and partially frozen. Only ever such numbers of gulls when they are following a plough.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Northernlights

[101_North]

31 minutes ago, shuggee said:

5.4C at dawn - positively Mediterranean. Didn't wear a hat outside 

No snow day today, green again...

I'm surprised at that. It's milder here too but the garden sensor still only showing 1.6c at 9am. 

[Ross B]

NMM is going for some more widespread snow tomorrow morning too... I'm still expecting rain or sleet here, maybe with some snow on the front edge but I'll hopefully be sleeping when that falls!

 

 

 

Latest meto forecast firmly planted on the fence...

 

"Cloud thickening and lowering to bring rain and snow to Ayrshire late evening, which extends into the Central Belt overnight. Heavier outbreaks and strengthening winds reaching far southwest towards dawn. Minimum temperature -2 °C."

Edited January 27, 2021 by Ross B

[blitzen]

Not sure how to sum up my winter locally so far.   Strange maybe?   Plenty of frosts, an abundance of ice, very little rain.

Predicted moderate snowfall seems to be an almost but not quite event too.   Admittedly, the lesser lighter varieties have been pretty frequent occurrences.   The best event round these parts for me was the thunder snow episode which dropped 10cms here.   Not getting too hung up about it yet though as we are barely 1/3 of the way through?   Just hope we don't have a pattern of sorts setting in within/around east central!

Edited January 27, 2021 by Blitzen

[101_North]

Warnings updated. Changed the shape of the yellow box is all. Not sure that much has changed in the detail. Still a 200m+ event with snow to lower levels at times. Last week was a similar warning and it turned out snowy for many but conditions do feel different this time round. Nowcasting and lamp post watching scenario 

[Ross B]

2 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Warnings updated. Changed the shape of the yellow box is all. Not sure that much has changed in the detail. Still a 200m+ event with snow to lower levels at times. Last week was a similar warning and it turned out snowy for many but conditions do feel different this time round. Nowcasting and lamp post watching scenario 

Yeah they've split the warning in two as North of the central belt are likely to get more prolonged snowfall from both fronts, whereas the south may get snow from the first band but more likely rain later on Thursday into Friday. As you say, it'll be down to nowcasting tomorrow - I've seen these type of events go both ways in terms of remaining as snow or being all rain ! 

[Ravelin]

Hasn't the northern warning been expanded too as unless I missed it then I wasn't covered before and I am now? MetO forecast keeps changing but is suggesting I'll see snow from early tomorrow afternoon through to Fri morning, mainly light. The highly reliable  XC Weather is showing something similar...

A very grey 1.1/0.7C here at the moment so feeling distinctively chilly still, with only a slight thaw of last nights additional half cm (at best). There might be some very light snow/drizzle falling right now, it's difficult to tell. I stood outside and even then it was difficult to say, but looking uphill there's definitely a haziness suggestive of it snowing just a little higher up, either than or it's just mist.

 

[Cheggers]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

There will be two fronts but I’m thinking sleet / freezing rain for most of us and a bit of snow for the high ground and mountains as the 528 dam is barely even in the NE when the first front is going through   dewpoints around 0 for some at that time especially further north and west with 850 temps around -2 to -4 so a bit too messy for me, after the second front moves through the flow goes east then north east getting the colder air back in which is likely to be on Friday. 
 me when I looked through the ensembles, full of many cold options some with split tropospheric PV, I’ll still say it’s not a forecast plenty more runs of the same kind before I call it but with favourable MJO and the recent / ongoing strat warming events it’s reasonable to see why these charts are coming out  

this was my favourite     

[Quinach]

Another day of the Permarut Permagloom™.

Damp and dreich out there, overnight low of -1c and black ice everywhere, though now thankfully starting to thaw a bit as temperature is up to 2.1c with light winds.

See the Met Office has us under the Snow warning for Thursday/Friday.  Believe that when I see it, the Norwegians have us down for sleet at best (they've been the most accurate recently).

Continuing the bird theme, feeders today exceptionally busy, just filled it 45 mins ago and they've already nearly emptied it.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Quinach

[WhiteXmas]

This is going to be one of those bloody marginal events where we get no snow but Dick and Doris next door are out building socially distanced snowmen and sticking two up to me with an envious glare across. The neighbour wars began that day when a stray snawbaw whacked me on the derriere and I released the kids on covert operation of inter-gardenal espionage to carry out the hit on the snowmen, anyway I digress.

 

In all seriousness, this is going to either be washout or a whiteout for many in my opinion! MetO showing rain for me here tomorrow. Toys and prams being armed and prepared. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by WhiteXmas