Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[edo]

Beautiful day like most, surprised at our wall down by the river how much snow retained there... Dogs were enjoying it and kids were motivated by a starbucks on way home so they kinda of at least pretended to enjoy a walk. 

Week ahead looks like marginal nowcast again... Story of the winter but one of cold as footy pitch remains unplayable since Dec 24 so a month of frozen or snow covered albeit light snow depth. 

[asjmcguire]

Dropped down to -4.2C earlier this evening, but now up to -3.1C.

Don't know if it will repeat last night and hover up and down and then plummet, or if it is going to keep rising.

Netweather has us being up above freezing by 3am, but it had something similar yesterday too - which was terribly wrong.

We shall see.

[101_North]

A bit milder this morning. Temp was around -4c yesterday evening but is now hovering just below freezing at -0.6c. Highest morning temp for a while. Bit more cloud and more of a breeze. Snow cover still in place. 

[Kayemill]

Wee sunset pic the wife took last night. 

[mardatha]

Looks like another gorgeous sunny cold one here.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

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Lethally slippy this morning everywhere coated in ice and just had another sleety shower to add to the ice.

 

[Quinach]

Story of the winter for here - ground frozen, 1.2c and light winds.  As for the showers passing through this morning, yep, rain with not the hint of a frozen component.  

[shuggee]

Before midnight got down to -2.6C but since midnight, just -1.0C, so that's my thirty second air frost. At dawn however it was +1.2C  which is where it has stayed since. Bootiful again.

[Sanserit]

Frost still on the ground but nothing on the cars.  Radar was showing showers in the area but nothing falling here that I've seen. Temperature  climbed steadily yesterday evening from -2.1 at 7pm to 2.6c by midnight then has hovered between 2.8c and 1.7c since.  After a cloudy start, the sun has broken through now and it's looking like being another lovely winter's day as any showers that are showing on the radar seem to be either dying out to the north or passing just to the east of me.  @Mair Snawmight be lucky enough to see some wintry ppn tho 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

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Took a bit of a hike up to the Lairg Windfarm , views to the SW and Carn Beg and one north up Loch Shin.  Stunning views in all directions.

[grifter]

Heady heights of 4oC the now, guess it's the wind that's got up although feels chilly in the wind.

[NUT]

Wind has increased ever so slightly so that probably melting the frost a bit quicker today still gloriously sunny though

Edited January 25, 2021 by NUT

[blitzen]

A bit more cloud around this morning.   Frost still in place.

Temp 1.2c/-0.1c/1004.5c/SW.

 

[Puffy MacCloud]

Lovely sunny morning and the thaw setting in should get rid of the ice that's been a pain in the backside up to now. My backside mainly.

Temperature 2.6deg.C up from -4.1deg.C at midnight, humidity 93%, wind 1 to 5mph northwesterly, pressure 1009.1hPa rising slowly, there's been 0.2mm of rain today and cloud cover is 3/8.

[Penicuikblizzard]

14 hours ago, shuggee said:

 

Interesting outputs and worth pointing out that the concensus on the snow down south today is that ECM outperformed the other models and that the UKV was hopeless. 

UKV was spot on for the Scotland snow Weds/Thurs last week

[Eastern Scotland WX]

9 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

UKV was spot on for the Scotland snow Weds/Thurs last week

I don't remember doing it particularly well until the snow started falling out the sky. Often favours sleety mess then favours snow when the snow actually starts. I suspect the snow tomorrow afternoon will be much more widespread in some places than the met office have forecasted.

[Penicuikblizzard]

6 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

I don't remember doing it particularly well until the snow started falling out the sky. Often favours sleety mess then favours snow when the snow actually starts. I suspect the snow tomorrow afternoon will be much more widespread in some places than the met office have forecasted.

I’m surprised to see them forecasting rain and sleet considering most of Scotland is remaining in the cold sector

Maybe going safe saying a high ground event 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

I’m surprised to see them forecasting rain and sleet considering most of Scotland is remaining in the cold sector

Maybe going safe saying a high ground event 

I still think its likely to be a high ground event but i can see a couple cm to low levels inland north of the central belt mainly. 

[Cheggers]

40 minutes ago, aggy said:

LOL!!!!!! DId they met get lazy 

Lol, that is very specific, and most of that strip is below 100m, I am about 3 miles from your point

[asjmcguire]

So, we came above freezing around 4am, and we hovered around the 1C mark. Around 10am we started to climb, and we are currently sitting at 3.5C, but we have reached 3.7C so far today. From a practical standpoint, I guess I am quite happy that we are finally far enough above freezing that it might make a difference, but the winter loving part of me, is not pleased.

[aggy]

1 hour ago, Cheggers said:

Lol, that is very specific, and most of that strip is below 100m, I am about 3 miles from your point

I can’t remember last time I seen such a narrow area . We sit at around 140-150 m so we shall see what happens 

[shuggee]

Back side covering in case the M8 gets some coverings at the highest spots. That's the only reason I can think of.

[asjmcguire]

Ooo I'm under the Met Office warning....

"above 200m"

Sigh.....

[Mr Frost]

48 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Back side covering in case the M8 gets some coverings at the highest spots. That's the only reason I can think of.

Good shout! 

Something that is worth noting for tomorrow is that late afternoon/evening has the better snow parameters for widespread low level wet snow. (100 meters and below - central belt included)

Early afternoon is looking roughly the most likely window for rain/sleet to low levels.

14:00

Precipitation type: 

Dewpoint:

 

Now here are the predicted conditions for 19:00 - note the dewpoint temperature looking a wee bit more supportive and the darker shades of blue on the wet bulb freezing height level chart for the area discussed above.

 

 

 

If all that was to become reality I would be expecting sleet at least to sea level here later tomorrow. 

As ever all subject to change but plenty of potential there for many of us to see some snowfall below the magical 200 meters.

Another one of these very marginal events between snow/sleety pish and rain for low levels - it is becoming a wee bit of a pain in the ars* this Winter! 

Would be great to not worry about a single snow parameter the day before a potential event - no wonder @CatchMyDrift f***** off to Canada! 

All the best and good luck to everyone at risk! 

Edited January 25, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Will they put out a yellow warning in time for tonight   it’s that front moving further east  again for tomorrow I am not overly confident here looks basically the same as the last frontal event could be on the boundary here but hopefully others see some more snaw, and the rough idea of snowfall from both those areas of precip