Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Stormeh]

I am pretty confident that I will see some decent snowfall at work this week. My workplace sits at 210m. The likes of Eaglesham and Neilston should do well also which is only a 5-10 min drive away so if no snow falls in Barrhead I can take the kids there to play and go sledging. I am very lucky to have higher areas close by with lots of great hills for sledging and walking  

[LomondSnowstorm]

1 hour ago, Ross B said:

Meto are updating the warnings. I was expecting them to mention a high ground event tomorrow given the text forecast update this morning emphasised a mostly high ground event (and mainly high ground for  rest of the week) but they've kept it for snow at low levels. On the impact matrix, they have put it down as a higher impact, but it's in the "unlikely" box....who knows 

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

I can see the logic for this certainly - firstly you've got the lighter initial stuff (which, judging by the radar, looks to be a little bit further east than expected so far), which should be mostly snow to low levels.

Then, as the main band hits tomorrow, things look pretty decent - wet bulb freezing level below 500m for most:

The problem really comes from the upper air temperatures away from the coast - the temperature gradient is quite marked, with only a few miles between the -4C and 0C isotherm:

As a result I don't think it's ridiculous to think that we could see freezing rain, particularly at higher levels across Dumfries and Galloway, but overnight if the warm sector does creep further north that could be a risk for central areas too.

 

Wednesday morning is where the precipitation totals start to ramp up on the UKV, some serious intensity flagged up with two occlusions straddled across the country:

While the precipitation type has this as a bit of a mix I do think there's some potential for this to be low ground snowfall at least with the northernmost band, with a pretty reasonable looking freezing level and that intensity doing a lot to tip things the right side of marginal (again, aside from the possible problems with modification from the east coast or the upper level warm front):

The ICON model is quite different on this, with the heaviest stuff coming on Tuesday afternoon:

It does, as it tends to do, look a bit more favourable for snowfall tomorrow than the UKV - the freezing level for example is very widely 300m or lower, and you can see the frontal boundary incredibly clearly:

Basically moving with the southern edge of the heaviest precipitation within the occlusion.

 

Finally, the NMM looks a bit more similar to the UKV (which I think you'd expect given the UKMO this morning is a bit different in how far north and east it brings the low and how much longer it takes to bring the easterly in in some form compared to the 0Z GFS and ECM) in terms of the front tomorrow:

 

There's still a lot of moving parts here, and the nuances of the timing of fronts, and how and where the low splits (if for example our low ends up weaker and further west or stronger and over us) is really not easy to pin down - Wednesday night for example seems far too far out to make a reliable forecast for at this stage:

What we do know is it will be some level of easterly flow, with a fairly stark frontal boundary somewhere in the vicinity of Scotland.

 

edit: I misread the UKV chart - the 'ramping up' of the intensity is just the timescale changing from 1 to 3 hours It's still fairly intense precipitation there on Wednesday but not so much of a difference from the other models which have some precipitation around then too.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[CameronWS]

1 hour ago, Stormeh said:

The 6z only shows mild air south of the border, parts of Scotland will be buried if the 6z was to be correct.

It all depends on the position of the low.

Exciting times for all of us with plenty of snow potential 

Is that precip coming in from the east coast here showers or an organised band? Just wondering because we’d definitely rather showers for the streamer potential in the west

[101_North]

I was half expecting @Hawesy to be on reporting East Neuk snow falling

[LomondSnowstorm]

24 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

Is that precip coming in from the east coast here showers or an organised band? Just wondering because we’d definitely rather showers for the streamer potential in the west

It's a mix I think - some of it is convective:

But with that low cycling nearby (which I think the GFS is a bit on its own with that far on but who knows where we'll be by then) there are some fronts in the vicinity, I think an initial cold front as the lower uppers move in and then the wrap around occlusion moving back north around the low. I'd think the 'big' models like the GFS and ECM aren't really going to pick up on the convective stuff very well in general though, and some of the runs where the low clear are probably a bit drier than they'd be in reality because they won't pick up on features like streamers (and equally they might overestimate frontal precipitation too).

What I would say is there's very high confidence that we're going to see sub -8C uppers with an easterly type flow at some stage from Thursday to the middle of next week:

The details are difficult to iron out but most of the time you're going to get pretty widespread low level snowfall for most of Scotland with that setup.

Edited February 1, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[mountain shadow]

35 minutes ago, EastLothianSnow said:

These MetOffice warnings where they warn of snow “away from eastern coastal districts” always has me wondering if I’m included in that area!? Technically we aren’t on the East Coast, we are further inland but we are still fairly close to the Forth and only at 50m. 

This warning for midweek warns of snow away from eastern coastal districts, yet our text warning mentions rain and sleet with snow on high ground. Confusing. 

We are a couple of miles outside of the yellow warning so expecting rain or sleet, but it was only a few weeks ago we got three inches of snow from a frontal event while areas further east got a lot less.

If it's a direct Easterly I think you'll be ok as your a good 10 miles or so from the East coast, if it's more Nor Easterly then it's a shorter distance from the sea.

It's probably nigh on impossible to say exactly, you'll just have to wait and see!

[Stormeh]

26 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

Is that precip coming in from the east coast here showers or an organised band? Just wondering because we’d definitely rather showers for the streamer potential in the west

I am no expert, thankfully @LomondSnowstorm has answered your question

What I do know though is that there is no raging Atlantic in the near future and things are turning colder with snow potential increasing for many members at lower levels.

Lots of interesting weather coming up, I am sure this thread will be busy over the next couple of weeks 

[Polar Gael]

Another pop-up dusting overnight here and a low of -2.4°C. Currently 1.1°C/0°C and a bright, cauld start to February.

Bring on the Beast.

[Hawesy]

37 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I was half expecting @Hawesy to be on reporting East Neuk snow falling

Don’t worry @101_North the moment I have a snowfall the thread will be full of my photos!  We’ve had showers off and on all morning but sadly liquid snow although we did have a burst of graupel in the heaviest precipitation. There’s a covering a few miles inland.

[A Winter's Tale]

A cold and sunny start to February. Hopefully we are on the cusp of the most significant weather of the winter so far. This winter up to date has been a colder version of 00/01, 05/06, 08/09, 12/13 - and not too dissimilar to some winters of the 80s. What all of those winters had in common were notable spells of either low temperatures, heavy snowfall or prolonged cold. Hopefully this upcoming cold spell will produce larger snowfalls and colder temperatures than we’ve seen so far. I don’t think we’ll see cold spell with the severity of 2010 or the Beast from the East in terms of either duration or intensity but I do think we could be looking at one of the more notable February cold spells of the last 30 years. It would be great to experience something to rival 2010 or 2018, but we don’t need an exceptional event to deliver a memorable cold spell or snowfall. 

A below average month is quite likely if we avoid a mild second half and if the cold persists or even intensifies beyond mid February then we could be looking at one of the coldest months of the past 35 years and would make 20/21 a notably cold winter. 

In the meantime we have the prospect of potentially significant snow in some areas. The high ground and parts of eastern Scotland away from the coast could see a lot of snow - totals in excess of a foot is more than possible. Elsewhere I expect precipitation alternate between snow and rain with accumulations mostly in places higher than 100m. Hopefully the precipitation remains as snow for most of us and it’s the type of snow that settles. Here in the Glasgow area I think we’ll be lucky to see more than a couple of inches. 

It looks like later this week we’ll see an easterly of sorts develop. The details on duration, how cold the uppers will be and whether it will be dry or snowy remains to be seen though it looks promising for eastern parts of Scotland. It isn’t a done deal yet but the chances of a potentially potent easterly is growing. Hopefully we end up with a proper Greenland High establishing to prolong the cold further into February or perhaps a snowy breakdown. Certainly an interesting period of weather coming up! 

 

 

[Ravelin]

We all know that XC weather is in no way to be taken seriously when it comes to snowfall, but just for a laugh I roughly added up the snowfall on the current forecast between tomorrow midday and when it ends around midnight on Mon.

Drum roll......

1.4m, yes, metres! 

   

Still a gorgeous day here, and surprisingly little sign of any real thaw despite the temp being back up to 1.9C with wall-to-wall sunshine. In similar conditions, or colder actually, in recent weeks the lying snow has thawed noticeably.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Ravelin

[shuggee]

When hobbies collide:

East Linton / David Bosher

WWW.RAILSCOT.CO.UK

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The former East Linton station, closed 4th May 1964, seen from the delayed ex-14.00 service from Edinburgh Waverley to London King^s Cross making an unscheduled stop due to heavy snow - the Beast from the...

The site plans for the new East Linton railway station have now been published and I was looking at various documents, satellite images and photos of the old station when this popped up - a great story of the BFTE.... It's an omen I tell ya, an omen. 

 

[Bullseye]

Just another day and another Snaw warning...

Looking at that some beefy snow coming in from North Sea on Friday, wouldn't rule out warnings to extend south.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Bullseye

[LomondSnowstorm]

On my phone so can't post charts as easily but the 9Z UKV is certainly an upgrade on earlier runs, with the easterly coming in earlier and the front not getting as far north in the initial push. As a result the wet bulb freezing level is closer to 300m or lower for most and you would be talking about a more clear cut situation with proper snow north of D+G and the Borders and away from the coast. Not quite so clear on the implications of what follows it but certainly puts us in a better position with cold air flooding back in by Wednesday afternoon.

[Northernlights]

Fascinating watching this shower over the Firth in the last few hours as the breeze faded and presumebly pressure rose as it just disintegrated in situ to nothing over the sea. Currently blue skies, sunny,sparkling snow , calm and -0.5c absolutely perfect.

 

Random photo.

[Snowlover2]

Snowing quite heavily at the minute which is surprising considering every forecast has us with no precipitation for the next few hours

[blitzen]

Snowing here too!  1.4c/0.4c

Edited February 1, 2021 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover2 said:

Snowing quite heavily at the minute which is surprising considering every forecast has us with no precipitation for the next few hours

It's really quite something to watch on the radar - the first band from the west moving eastwards as some still fairly decent convection off the North Sea moves west!

I'm quite heartened by the amount of showers we've seen coming in off the North Sea well past when it was forecast to largely die out - bodes well for the weekend...

[LomondSnowstorm]

29 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Just another day and another Snaw warning...

Looking at that some beefy snow coming in from North Sea on Friday, wouldn't rule out warnings to extend south.

It does look like that outlook is based on the 00Z UKMO/03Z UKV, as you'd expect from the Met Office I guess, but if the UKV 'upgrade' in the earlier part of the run leads to a 12Z UKMO more in line with the earlier GFS or ECM then I'd imagine they'll extend the warning to cover the vast majority of Scotland (or I guess maybe wait until tomorrow to do so to avoid having to make too many changes to a warning that's a few days out still).

[101_North]

Just watching the radar and it's been interesting that for most of the day so far the echoes, even over the immediate coast, have been showing as snow north of the Forth but rain and sleet south. No idea what that means for later today and the rest of the week. Just an observation when I should really be working  

 

[pdiddy]

10 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Just watching the radar and it's been interesting that for most of the day so far the echoes, even over the immediate coast, have been showing as snow north of the Forth but rain and sleet south. No idea what that means for later today and the rest of the week. Just an observation when I should really be working  

 

I'm not holding out much hope... we are just the wrong side of marginal this time, I think. 

[JoeShmoe]

14 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

I'm not holding out much hope... we are just the wrong side of marginal this time, I think. 

Sleet falling here ...

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 12Z GFS looks markedly better than the 6Z for Thursday's warm sector drama:

 

It's a very good run:

 

The 12Z UKV is significantly better up to Wednesday night again, with the -8C isotherm as far south as Fife by the end of it:

and snow showers starting to come in:

 

The UKMO I'm not quite so sure about though - we don't get that secondary low splitting and heading eastwards and as a result we end up with the slightly flabbier low a bit further north:

and as a result we end up with a fair chunk of us in a bit of a warm sector until it clears east:

Still you can't be too unhappy with a run that ends with this:

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[JoeShmoe]

Just now, JoeShmoe said:

Sleet falling here ... will be snow id think up Stratton / currie given there's some chunky looking flakes mixed in

 

[Northern Strath]

The last day of January started at -12c and ended the day at -6.2c, capping off a cold month nicely. 1st day of February has been lovely so far with sunshine, some bouts of snow and a max of 0.8c with no melt. Current temp -2.8c and absolutely dropping like a stone. Looking like the charitable sod winter 20/21 may well deliver for many again this week