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Model output discussion - Into 2021

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted

The GFS 18z is very sensible regarding the 500mb jet split, and the outcome is fruity. The tendency for isolated GL heights is a credible combination of the HLB, breakdown & AAM signal.

I suspect we may be within a period of NWP latency at the moment, 00Z will be enlightening.

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ianmm94 Apprentice

ianmm94

Posted
  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

As good as the run is wouldn't this be the cruelest let down of all time?

GFSOPEU18_348_2.png

Won't happen, GFS blowing up that low pressure as it always likes to do

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
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Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thing is Steve, with a bit of luck, there is every chance that deep cold pool moves towards us later in January. That would be country crippling cold.

Remember my post from the other day...

The social impacts of that sort of cold would be incredible.

Perhaps Mother Nature has come to make the lockdown decision for Boris?

MIA

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thing is Steve, with a bit of luck, there is every chance that deep cold pool moves towards us later in January. That would be country crippling cold.

Perfect for keeping everyone in!, If there's ever a time the government wouldn't mind it its now!

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted
48 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is certainly a colder pool developing over the low countries and from the NW,the UK is sandwiched...

gfs-1-162.thumb.png.9f97166d65579476a70ee8eba7d341b6.png

a lot better run this and not often you get a battleground from the north conflicting with the south and could = snow good snowfall.

gfs-2-174.thumb.png.7d6c3c784b8aeff1eaf668ff1321f533.png

 

......in 10 days.  What was this model forecasting 10 days ago?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

I don't need a sharp knife as the butter has just melted...

gfs/p

gfsnh-0-294.thumb.png.55b54f1e1e6a319b1600226f40550ee2.png

...and then some.

gfsnh-0-306.thumb.png.d5ced4358ef524f847d5888b7b9e8ab3.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
1 minute ago, Day_9 said:

......in 10 days.  What was this model forecasting 10 days ago?

image.thumb.png.06b17d052910509deb32f15dc36617ab.png

 

What we got 

image.thumb.png.404342c05078ad4c68a32953c69e9a59.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

I assume the gfs would get there by day 18/19 ?

those worrying about the southerly should realise that the best scandi highs are often preceded by a strong southerly across nw Europe driving the WAA required to  strengthen the ridge in situ 

Edited by bluearmy
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BelgianBlizzard Explorer

BelgianBlizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leuven, Belgium
  • Location: Leuven, Belgium
Posted
22 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

image.thumb.png.b93062020983cc2e26a18dcdcbdb13e0.png I'm gonna need a bigger shovel!

I live in the white spot in the middle of Belgium without snow ...but the actual snow map will probably look a lot differently by then

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

If only the GFS went further, this is a histroic easterly lining up.

image.thumb.png.7a2e9f34a7b6860b09d863f680ebe77d.pngimage.thumb.png.f8b8cccae939e5b8de7e30766adf3be7.png 

The sheer cold in europe would be record breaking one would think.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Now we are talking - that is what i mean by cold being ready, just need the undercut, was hoping the second attempt at the split would bring it Westwards late Jan - if it did, that is the difference between a proper cold spell and a feeble attempt at one.

image.thumb.png.0a59bd89c12d40ad47b9334e2b3c37e0.png

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

image.thumb.png.06b17d052910509deb32f15dc36617ab.png

 

What we got 

image.thumb.png.404342c05078ad4c68a32953c69e9a59.png

Cheers, where can we easily reference verification rates?

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Wow look at that cold pool building to our east...no sleety marginal crap from that if we get an easterly!!

7DF69322-5449-4678-AB92-874E10F51EB6.png

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Cryosphere. Apprentice

Cryosphere.

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thing is Steve, with a bit of luck, there is every chance that deep cold pool moves towards us later in January. That would be country crippling cold.

Indeed...We need to be careful what we wish for; Coupled with the current problem our world is dealing with right now. The elderly and at high-risk would be dealt a double wammy.

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

I know it's fi, but the cold is so established, the winds from far south west at the end struggles to raise temps above freezing.

image.thumb.png.46f7523e9e8d6493443d5ee44c0e2e72.pngimage.thumb.png.8e0b58e01708fd24be75c07385556328.png

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted
19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Please stop commenting where the run doesn’t show snowfall - it won’t be like that. It’s just an indication. look at the bigger picture fgs 

Yep. Was just going to say the same thing. The limit I look at is 48 hours ahead ( for fun), the 24 hours ahead for closer detail. And then the radar. 

 

And just to be actually sure, I look out the window.

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Blizzard needs a southern jet

Huh? 

Low dropping through scandi... 

1810912633_gfsnh-0-312(2).thumb.png.ade99076c1074e57eed2ffdb2348d9f6.png

Jet recurving.. 

gfsnh-5-312.thumb.png.4c7f845cc13bc3049406725e9687b188.png

Definition of a 'blizzard' 

'a severe snowstorm with high winds' 

 

??? 

 

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Almost a cross polar flow,...what a run,gfs/p.

gfsnh-0-318.thumb.png.5af9b072fabc7495f61fe34b0fe14262.png

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