Model output discussion - Into 2021

[nick sussex]

Just caught up with all the fun !

If the UK can’t get some significant snow out of the upcoming pattern then really NW members must have done something bad in a previous life !

Cold pools moving south and one developing over mainland Europe . Not sure the UKs cold forcefield can repel both ! 

 

Edited January 1, 2021 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Before the low slides south and east, dragging in much colder air from the north and east....

Exactly ...it is in progress and probably only temporarily too marginal south of the M4. It will probably end up in the Chanel again and miss all of us

[TallPaul]

4 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Ok guys, I freely admit, I’m a bit thick..although I used to be an Architect for many years!..yeah, I put myself down, sell myself short.....and I’m autistic, not a great combo ( how the hell I got to have the most rep ( for a few more minutes!).. I will never know)?....BUT..I have noticed the ECM mean has trended colder compared to last evenings 12z?...or am I imagining it?..discuss...anyway, whatever, I’m not seeing a return to mild being the form horse..quite the opposite in fact!...ps..there’s some amazing contributions on here, it’s much better than when I joined in 2005..although, too me it seemed amazing back then..but now..it’s a whole new league..premier league actually! 

 

Hi Karl, irrespective of the level of knowledge, your autism, etc - you REALLY DO add your voice and best of all, your amazing positivity on here! Without you I think i would have thrown the towel in years ago!!

Keep up and please continue to voice your views and opinions, right or wrong they are respected...and i think i speak for the majority on NW. 

Happy New Year to you (and all on here)... Great people, great discussions, great varied opinions!!

[ghoneym]

day 10 chart from Dec 22nd - i.e today from 12z EC

Todays actual 12z EC

Not really that close in all honesty. Wouldn't imagine any of the other NWP fair much better at that range with the background synoptics they are dealing with this winter.

[phil nw.]

Very promising ecm with the easterly and then a cold northerly as the trough digs down from the Arctic. Day 10 -battleground snow as the Atlantic slides se.against what looks by then to be a quite solid looking cold pool.

Certainly a reasonable assumption now that we will see something like this with the evolution from the easterly showing at day 6.

What i noticed is the increasing extent and spread of the cold pool to both our north and east as we go into week 2 .Low pressure extends further east into S.Europe effectively cutting off any mild air from coming north from the E.Med.

If we see this trend continue we are in a very good place for lift-off with deeper cold air becoming more readily available both to our north and east.

 

[Griff]

I mentioned after there was a mini-meltdown here a couple of days ago that my summation was that the ECM was playing catch up. Lo and behold, everyone's singing its praises this evening. 

I'm boring and like a stuck record but given the chopping and changing of late, I'm keeping a close eye on the GFSP. 

Curious to see means, clusters, ensembles for all available models this evening. Expecting the usual excellent analysis by those who understand it all better than I do. 

I'm anticipating scatter with the potential of high reward, mixed with noise from the knock on effect of the strat warming. 

Doing my best to keep tweets to the twitter thread. Obviously a pinch of salt required, but claims and proclamations of incredible magnitude being touted. I mentioned high reward, goes without saying this leaves the door open for equal disappointment. 

Onwards to the 18z!

(keep an eye on GFSP for consistency... ) 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Love it most of the south? 

To answer your question steve mention in post how far south snow was so hence the mention of the south in my post so below explains it a bit better 

Let's do it as regional then like the threads

South west & Southern central regional thread = mostly heavy rain

South east regional thread = mostly heavy rain

Ps Day 10 precipitation charts is like playing darts with a blindfold on

[NewEra21]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Exactly ...it is in progress and probably only temporarily too marginal south of the M4. It will probably end up in the Chanel again and miss all of us

Yep just like the ECM was showing this on Monday for today, and we all know how that worked out

Edited January 1, 2021 by NewEra21

[sheikhy]

Ecm cold and potentially snowy throughout!!i think that drop down low is pretty much gone now!!but what do i know gfs 18z will probably make me look all silly now!!!!the little mild period on gfs at 138 hours non existant on  ecm and ukmo so thats a good thing!!!

[Frosty.]

Looking at these damn charts!!!..I mean dam charts!!!....from the ECM 12z operational..I believe somewhere in the u k will be enjoying some wintry hazards during the next 10 days? +

Edited January 1, 2021 by Jon Snow

[danm]

19 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

There's likely to be corrections south 

We're still in the game

And it’s 11 days away....

[MKN]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm cold and potentially snowy throughout!!i think that drop down low is pretty much gone now!!but what do i know gfs 18z will probably make me look all silly now!!!!the little mild period on gfs at 138 hours non existant on  ecm and ukmo so thats a good thing!!!

Throughout? Very little snow throughout all the more reliable time frames. +42 to +120 during initial Easterly majority of areas look set to remain dry if the ECM is correct.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Throughout? Very little snow throughout all the more reliable time frames. +42 to +120 during initial Easterly majority of areas look set to remain dry if the ECM is correct.

That's been the form horse this week, true enough! 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

To answer your question steve mention in post how far south snow was so hence the mention of the south in my post so below explains it a bit better 

Let's do it as regional then like the threads

South west & Southern central regional thread = mostly heavy rain

South east regional thread = mostly heavy rain

Ps Day 10 precipitation charts is like playing darts with a blindfold on

Lol

[SMU]

At least it will dry > has *Never happened*
Get to the days & there will be heavy showers kicking about....

[Mr Frost]

Just browsed the latest UKV run and there is plenty of sleet/snow showers showing - especially Eastern parts of the UK through next week as expected,

Here is the lying snow depth chart for this run out to 06/01 15:00:

 

Look closer...one for the SE ladies and gents here...

It’s coming @Paul Sherman @Steve Murr 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Biggin]

29 minutes ago, booferking said:

Torrential rain for most of the south.

Nah rain to snow event by that.

[Skyraker]

2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

That will produce a 50m asl temp of 1.78c in showers so yes, in the short window of -7/-8 uppers snow is likely & there are troughs in there too.

DP's.

[Man With Beard]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is this the wrong time to remind readers that absolutely zero major snowfalls have verified on the ECM this winter at T48, let alone T240?

Hopefully this will work in reverse next week with currently unforecasted snowfalls

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Skyraker said:

DP's.

The Dew Points will follow the temps largely, about 1c lower in this set up.

[Biggin]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Just browsed the latest UKV run and there is plenty of sleet/snow showers showing - especially Eastern parts of the UK through next week as expected,

Here is the lying snow depth chart for this run out to 06/01 15:00:

 

Look closer...one for the SE ladies and gents here...

 

It’s coming @Steve Murr 
 

We gonna need to batten down the hatches should that occur....

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, radiohead said:

The agony and the ecstasy....

Thankfully ten days away, remember the 10-20cm ECM was forecasting for the south on the 28th? That lot will probably end up in central France....

[BlackburnChris]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At least it will dry > has *Never happened*
Get to the days & there will be heavy showers kicking about....

Also worth noticing the showers often make it all the way across to the West which often doesn't show on the models until the day.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Also worth noticing the showers often make it all the way across to the West which often doesn't show on the models until the day.

Where showers funnel yes for this - Arpege

[bluearmy]

37 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Marco Patanga on Twitter just stated major SSW to take place in next week or so prolonged 

easterly ie beast from the east on it’s way,only short temperature pick if any.

I suspect he didn’t phrase it like that .......