North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Day 10]

I've given up in there. 

[The Northern Ramper]

9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

18z GFS looks rather bracing. This wouldn’t be a dry pattern for the eastern parts of NW England - nobody show me those crap precipitation charts to try and prove me wrong.

In all seriousness this would be BITTERLY cold with snow for some of us. 

It’s the jackpot for the east of this region, showers will pile over the Pennines.

[SnowWatcher2]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Bullish or bulls##t. 

Yep... lets hope not though 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

I've given up in there. 

The thing is, they just ignore that without cross model agreement, the whole pattern is at risk of folding like a deck of cards. Having the GEFS on board is pretty worthless as they can flip in the space of a run. I'm not calling anything until that cut off low is resolved.

[Day 10]

18z may well start dry with the Easterly but it's that good a run I'm sure we'd all see snow at some point.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The thing is, they just ignore that without cross model agreement, the whole pattern is at risk of folding like a deck of cards. Having the GEFS on board is pretty worthless as they can flip in the space of a run. I'm not calling anything until that cut off low is resolved.

Hate being on my phone as can't compare stuff like I like to, but yes I know what you mean, we aren't quite there yet. What do you make of the ECM lately? Poor performance or is that what is making you nervous over the cold spell folding? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Hate being on my phone as can't compare stuff like I like to, but yes I know what you mean, we aren't quite there yet. What do you make of the ECM lately? Poor performance or is that what is making you nervous over the cold spell folding? 

The general complexity of the pattern is making me nervous...Arctic heights, LP cut off from a jet that is displaced much further S than normal. I have my reservations that the GFS has the skill to reconcile this over the ECM.

[Joe Bloggs]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The thing is, they just ignore that without cross model agreement, the whole pattern is at risk of folding like a deck of cards. Having the GEFS on board is pretty worthless as they can flip in the space of a run. I'm not calling anything until that cut off low is resolved.

Very, very wise. 
 

The 12z EPS are improved though so this might come good. 

Edit - this is the ECM mean for T+168. So in some respects we have both ensemble sets on board, just one more bullish than the other. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The general complexity of the pattern is making me nervous...Arctic heights, LP cut off from a jet that is displaced much further S than normal. I have my reservations that the GFS has the skill to reconcile this over the ECM.

Interesting morning to come. 

[Geordiesnow]

23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The thing is, they just ignore that without cross model agreement, the whole pattern is at risk of folding like a deck of cards. Having the GEFS on board is pretty worthless as they can flip in the space of a run. I'm not calling anything until that cut off low is resolved.

I looked on that thread and I don't see anything wrong with the posts on there, just describing what the 18Z is showing which in fairness is a stonking run, especially synotopics wise. 

The easterly signal is getting closer and certainly a possibility but I seen plenty of other runs which has the trigger low stalling over us basically which means a totally different weather story although as the ECM shows, certainly not without its snow risk. 

As far as I'm concerned, on a IMBY POV, I'll take the ECM any day over the GFS in respect it has a higher risk of snowfall over the GFS but on the overall picture, the GFS is the best run and allows us to tap into significant cold. 

Best avoid the thread though if the morning runs have significantly downgraded. 

[Backtrack]

Woah, not checked the charts for a few days. Looks like we are really in for a period of prolonged cold. Dry, but very very cold.

[Weather-history]

Latest Met Office text forecast

 

Tonight:

A dry evening, with increasing levels of cloud and wind. Rain, occasionally heavy, moves northeast across the region during the small hours, turning to snow away from immediate coasts. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Tuesday:

Windy throughout, with risks of icy stretches and coastal gales. Widespread rain and snow clears, leaving an unsettled mix of bright spells and heavy, blustery showers. Turning widespread again later. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Remaining rather cold with outbreaks of rain throughout. Snow likely on Wednesday, and a smaller dusting expected Thursday. Winds strengthen Friday.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Who writes this?

It says coastal gales. What coastal gales for tomorrow for this region?

Look at GFS and ICON wind maps for tomorrow

 

Talks about outbreaks of rain throughout (Wednesday to Friday) but then says snow is likely Wednesday and a smaller dusting expected Thursday. ?????

What do they mean by a smaller dusting? A smaller dusting related to what and where?

 

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Ha ha ha ha ha 

[alr1970]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Ha ha ha ha ha 

Normal for Norfolk.

In an easterly.

Normal for here too.

GFS ensembles look good, but I've seen that level of agreement a week out fail to materialize in the past.

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Ha ha ha ha ha 

LOL

Take no notice of snow charts at this stage.

C.S

[Joe Bloggs]

-3C at the Airport. Maybe I wasn’t taking enough notice but I wasn’t actually expecting a decent frost last night.

[Iceaxecrampon]

19 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

Take no notice of snow charts at this stage.

C.S

Yes. Pinch of grit and all that  

But the irony of it all. 

[cheshire snow]

Bbc breakfast saying snow and freezing rain tonight and show a temperature of 4c is that at all possible I was under the impression that for freezing rain the surface temperature has to be at 0c or below anyone give any more information?

C.S

[Troubleatmill]

32 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Yes. Pinch of grit and all that  

But the irony of it all. 

Yeah we just know with easterlies the outcome dont we  grabbed off the SE regional thread ooops I mean model discussion thread

Edited February 1, 2021 by Beano

[iand61]

Blizzards for the southeast anyone and ice flows in the Thames

oh sorry, this was meant to go in the Model Thread.

[Chris.R]

Final thoughts for tonight, (taking all the emotion out of it). 

Low ground south of region 1 hour snow if lucky followed bye 1–2 hours ice pellets followed by rain.

North region 6–8 hours heavy snow then ice pellets and freezing rain alternating rest of morning. Bacup is going to get battered. 

glossop and surroundings, 3 hours snow followed bye 1–2 hours ice pellets followed bye freezing rain for rest of morning.

 

starting to really look forward to the Easterly  this weekend got a feeling there will be snow even this far west. Also possible snow cold front back edge Friday night.

[Chris.R]

11 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Bbc breakfast saying snow and freezing rain tonight and show a temperature of 4c is that at all possible I was under the impression that for freezing rain the surface temperature has to be at 0c or below anyone give any more information?

C.S

Yes the freezing rain will be restricted to 100 m plus where the air or ground temperature is below 0. Ice pellets on low ground but  BBC wouldn’t know what an ice pellet was if it hit them in the face!

[Spah1]

HATE Easterlies!

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

HATE Easterlies!

Don’t be too downhearted yet. It all depends on the depth of cold, the strength of the wind and how unstable the air. East of the region is best placed but it is not unheard of for the west of the region to get snow showers off an easterly , it certainly did in the 90s. East of the M6 is most certainly favoured, but you never know. 
 

Also for convective showers those charts are a bag of sh*te. 

[iand61]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Final thoughts for tonight, (taking all the emotion out of it). 

Low ground south of region 1 hour snow if lucky followed bye 1–2 hours ice pellets followed by rain.

North region 6–8 hours heavy snow then ice pellets and freezing rain alternating rest of morning. Bacup is going to get battered. 

glossop and surroundings, 3 hours snow followed bye 1–2 hours ice pellets followed bye freezing rain for rest of morning.

 

starting to really look forward to the Easterly  this weekend got a feeling there will be snow even this far west. Also possible snow cold front back edge Friday night.

Cheers Chris but I don’t think my wife will be happy with the Bacup is going to get battered part of it.

It should be her first day back in work after Coronavirus and I know she doesn’t like the snow, less still driving in it but at least it’s downhill all the way for her

for me, a week working from home so not a problem.