North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

If a convective easterly is unstable enough, and cold enough, large parts of the NW can get snow, especially further east in the region. In fact close to the Pennines the showers can be enhanced. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

9 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Can't recall snow for hours to be honest.. We had the rain to snow event which was good.. And 1 or 2 heavy showers.. That snow that hung around for 10 days or so was from one very heavy shower.... Anyway that's all in the past.. The fact remains that this weekend is looking like more frustration.. Tuesday next week holds a bit of hope but I'm not holding my breath.. Followed by a possible easterly and the pennies gobbling up the snow. 

 

As I think we cleared up by PM it mainly seems to be an elevation issue, which makes sense on rain to snow as it turned more quickly and some of the more marginal shows over the days after might have stayed as snow rather than rain lower down (which makes sense a few was forecast 200m+).

 

But yup this weekend looks like yet another snow event sinking south and leaving us with nothing. I think the issue is that most of us are not going to care if this sinks south and stays of rain, it's the frequency of these sinking south and ending up as decent snowfalls for the midlands that is utterly grating.

 

I didn't live here in Feb 96 (and wouldn't be old enough to remember it) but youtube makes think I'd love it - what direction did that come from?

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Frosty the Snowman

[Joe Snow]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I think the Met are being rather bullish with the snow prospects, suspect conditions wont be conducive for low level snow, where is the cold air? A high ground event. I've noticed there forecasts seem to over estimate when likely to affect more populous parts such as Birmingham or London compared to those likely to affect more rural northern parts. 

Yeah could well be a slush and wet snow fest to lower levels where the snow falls although if its intense enough I'm sure it will stick over parts of the Midlands but for low land NW England it might be better to stay cold and dry vs a frustrating sleet/ wet snow scenario if the front reaches us. Think we'll all see some further snow into February and some 'proper cold' hopefully though. 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

As I think we cleared up by PM it mainly seems to be an elevation issue, which makes sense on rain to snow as it turned more quickly and some of the more marginal shows over the days after might have stayed as snow rather than rain lower down (which makes sense a few was forecast 200m+).

 

But yup this weekend looks like yet another snow event sinking south and leaving us with nothing. I think the issue is that most of us are not going to care if this sinks south and stays of rain, it's the frequency of these sinking south and ending up as decent snowfalls for the midlands that is utterly grating.

 

I didn't leave here in Feb 96 (and wouldn't be old enough to remember it) but this video makes think I'd love it - what direction did that come from?

 

 

 

Feb 1996 was incredible and I remember it well. 
 

It was a stalling active front pushing against a continental airmass. The whole of the NW had snow but the best of it was up in @damianslaw ‘s neck of the woods, South Lakeland, West Lancs and Merseyside. Liverpool had deep cover as did the Fylde coast, close to a foot of snow if not more. 
The wind wasn’t from the SE so there was no orographic shadow effect, Greater Manchester joined the party too.

Feb 96 is literally the holy grail for NW England - if only we could get a repeat. 

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

As I think we cleared up by PM it mainly seems to be an elevation issue, which makes sense on rain to snow as it turned more quickly and some of the more marginal shows over the days after might have stayed as snow rather than rain lower down (which makes sense a few was forecast 200m+).

 

But yup this weekend looks like yet another snow event sinking south and leaving us with nothing. I think the issue is that most of us are not going to care if this sinks south and stays of rain, it's the frequency of these sinking south and ending up as decent snowfalls for the midlands that is utterly grating.

 

I didn't live here in Feb 96 (and wouldn't be old enough to remember it) but youtube makes think I'd love it - what direction did that come from?

 

 

Feb 96 was super.. I may be wrong on this but I think it was a big Atlantic front that bumped into the cold air.. I remember it snowed solidly for a good 12 hours leaving about 2 foot in its wake. 

[chicken soup]

Just now, chicken soup said:

Feb 96 was super.. I may be wrong on this but I think it was a big Atlantic front that bumped into the cold air.. I remember it snowed solidly for a good 12 hours leaving about 2 foot in its wake. 

Joggs beat me to it. 

[damianslaw]

It's been a very drab day here, misty low cloud and drizzle, temp max 6.5 degrees. Feel a bit in no mabs land at moment between colder drier air trying to move in from the north, and the Atlantic trying to gain a foothold from SW with its associated snow fronts. Neither making its presence felt here just yet... just the rain only! 

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Joggs beat me to it. 

It just didn’t stop snowing.

It snowed, and snowed and snowed. 

The front was extremely active, pushed in from the Irish Sea, and stalled just after it passed the M6. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Feb 1996 was incredible and I remember it well. 
 

It was a stalling active front pushing against a continental airmass. The whole of the NW had snow but the best of it was up in @damianslaw ‘s neck of the woods, South Lakeland, West Lancs and Merseyside. Liverpool had deep cover as did the Fylde coast, close to a foot of snow if not more. 
The wind wasn’t from the SE so there was no orographic shadow effect, Greater Manchester joined the party too.

Feb 96 is literally the holy grail for NW England - if only we could get a repeat. 

Yes perfect alignment, a rare set up, ended up with 18 inches, not bettered anything nearly as close since. Nearly 25 years ago, remember it like yesterday! I was 17 and school closed for the week, came on a Monday morning great timing. Half term following week as well.

It lasted about 30 hours 10am Monday until about 4pm Tuesday.

Edited January 28, 2021 by damianslaw

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

It just didn’t stop snowing.

It snowed, and snowed and snowed. 

The front was extremely active, pushed in from the Irish Sea, and stalled just after it passed the M6. 

Got very little from it in this part of East Lancashire although no doubt it reinvigorated again as it crossed the Pennines and dumped massive amounts over Yorkshire

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Got very little from it in this part of East Lancashire although no doubt it reinvigorated again as it crossed the Pennines and dumped massive amounts over Yorkshire

Haha west was best on that occasion. I don’t think Yorkshire had much but could be wrong. 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Haha west was best on that occasion. I don’t think Yorkshire had much but could be wrong. 

TBH we did get some snow then as we moved into this house in January that year and I remember clearing the drive and speaking with the neighbours for pretty much the first time while doing it.

the amounts weren’t great though, probably about 6 inches although by current standards I suppose that’s a decent effort.

the best February for snow here was 1979, not just for the intensity of the falls but the fact that they were so frequent and just piled up one on top of another.

[Joe Bloggs]

This was the setup 

[Spah1]

 

[Osca31]

Feb 1996 , best snow I can remember.Started at 8.00am,by 10.00am schools were closing and at midday we were sent home from Sellafield.I made it home after 4 hrs but many ended up either walking home or stopping in their cars or local sports halls. I was off work for a week. This winter is the closest in recent times where I feel that set up could repeat itself.

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, Osca31 said:

Feb 1996 , best snow I can remember.Started at 8.00am,by 10.00am schools were closing and at midday we were sent home from Sellafield.I made it home after 4 hrs but many ended up either walking home or stopping in their cars or local sports halls. I was off work for a week. This winter is the closest in recent times where I feel that set up could repeat itself.

Hope to see a repeat sooner rather than later...

[The Northern Ramper]

47 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

If a convective easterly is unstable enough, and cold enough, large parts of the NW can get snow, especially further east in the region. In fact close to the Pennines the showers can be enhanced. 

Seems to be the only thing that truly delivers here. A stalling front here would be fantastic but I’m not sure it’s even possible nowadays, it has been that long.

[Day 10]

17 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

This was the setup 

Perfection.

[SnowWatcher2]

Would be nice to get something this year to look back on... I love the look of that cold coming in from the North East next month.. currently looks as though it is pivoting directly for us..  looking forward to the near future if it stays that way.

 

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

This is how the pattern usually goes year on year.

Day 5 - Modeled to hit Scotland

Day 4 - Scottish borders

Day 3 - Cracker! Looks good for the North West - ALL SUCKED IN!!!

Day 2 - The South of the region may see snow - 50% OF US STILL SUCKED IN!!! THE OTHER 50% OUT BUYING A NEW LAPTOP!!!

Day 1 - Possible light snow in Cheshire/Merseyside - 20% OF US STILL LEFT, AT THE LOCAL CHURCH PRAYING!!!

Day 0 - Wales & the Midlands 5 - 15cm's of snow QUITE WIDELY - F### OFF!!!

 

Current Output

Day 5 - Looks good, has potential...

In case anyone missed it - Get ready for the letdown pattern to unfold once again!

Day 5.

 

[severe snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

In case anyone missed it - Get ready for the letdown pattern to unfold once again!

Day 5.

 

Sods law is that this chart will verify, burying the NE of England and Scotland in snow with no Southward corrections leaving us all with lovely cold rain.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Sods law is that this chart will verify, burying the NE of England and Scotland in snow with no Southward corrections leaving us all with lovely cold rain.

God don't say that, in fact there are two patterns -

Day 5 - Heavy Snow modeled into Scotland

Day 0 - Heavy Snow into Scotland

OR

Day 5 - Heavy Snow modeled into Scotland

Day 0 - Heavy Snow into Wales & Midlands

Is does happen over us, just a lot less for some reason? Is it just bad luck or is there some meteorological explanation to it?

[Day 10]

Luckily, Feb does look as though it's on the verge of a big freeze.

[Frost HoIIow]

Not getting excited about this weekend. How many times has a frontal event never got this far north? We need a proper Easterly here in Oldham. 2018 was just amazing seeing the powdery snow blowing off the roof and fields causing drifts. And that wind was absolutely perishing but throughly enjoyable at the same time haha. I think the upper air temps was about -14 to -15C.

STUNNING synoptics.

[iand61]

This is what a decent easterly used to dump IMBY but these days the Pennines usually gobble the lot and our drought conditions seem to be getting worse

it’s a good job that United Utilities has invested in the infastructure to take what little water this arid region gets.