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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards


cheshire snow
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

    WRF for Oldham

    image.thumb.png.c4a8955cbad0d13c0987d72269374280.png

    WRF for Glossop

    image.thumb.png.ab17170b43deeb6a4395162001179032.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

    46BDDD79-4B7F-4988-A544-7284FCA1E178.thumb.png.a0fc48ed518ccfe7eae2ee4537992cfa.png

    Saturday

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

    Chris do you use the 2km or 0.05? 
     

    I don’t know the difference. 
     

    cheers

     

    1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

    Chris do you use the 2km or 0.05? 
     

    I don’t know the difference. 
     

    cheers

    I think I answered you the other day about this. I use the 2 km. 0.05 is about 5 km resolution I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    46BDDD79-4B7F-4988-A544-7284FCA1E178.thumb.png.a0fc48ed518ccfe7eae2ee4537992cfa.png

    Saturday

    image.thumb.png.647dbb4edda74899681e84757affcca5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
    4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    46BDDD79-4B7F-4988-A544-7284FCA1E178.thumb.png.a0fc48ed518ccfe7eae2ee4537992cfa.png

    Saturday

    Typical lol... hopefully will get all of us under it nearer the time

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     

    I think I answered you the other day about this. I use the 2 km. 0.05 is about 5 km resolution I think.

    I asked what 0.05 meant not which one you use.

    Keep up the good work I like reading what you have to say. 

    cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    I feel sick....

    908811468_Screenshot_2021-01-28UKweatherwarnings.thumb.png.5d90f0d00857a39b5e9abbd6e26beb1e.png

    What I do not understand is the shadow affect as we do not get one here as that indicates one?

    Clinging onto the fact they mention the uncertainty in the northern extent, why does this keep happening? Is it just pure extremely bad luck or something else? I'm pretty sure these systems made it further north on a more regular occurrence in the past.

    Edited by Day 10
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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Giant snowball on its last legs could do with a friend soon😁

    C.S

    20210128_110728.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and stormy weather
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

    Interesting to see the warning area extending much further North over the Eastern part of the region compared to the West and South. Anyone know why this might be?

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    I asked what 0.05 meant not which one you use.

    Keep up the good work I like reading what you have to say. 

    cheers

    Apologies yes you did I remember now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

    The main one's I use, also added WRF which I now use courtesy of @Chris.R 👍

    GFS

    GFS.thumb.jpg.a7a95dd6e6212de533cbad027e37ba64.jpg

    ECM

    ECM.thumb.jpg.6cb6b3dfedcb855a97f18ba132d7cda2.jpg

    GEM

    GEM.thumb.png.7cb60bbd92e76c664ed544e3134324af.png

    ICON

    ICON.thumb.png.83fd0decf1b7a9db94ba4614c7d44ded.png

    WRF

    WRF.thumb.png.f69ad4e44dbd37c15817cece57335e17.png

    Nervous day then as there are still time for adjustments.

    Blending them together, at the minute I would say the nothern extent being a line from about Southport across to Manchester.

    Oh no surprise none make it to Cumbria! If it was all rain it would do! Moan over!

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

    I feel sick....

    908811468_Screenshot_2021-01-28UKweatherwarnings.thumb.png.5d90f0d00857a39b5e9abbd6e26beb1e.png

    What I do not understand is the shadow affect as we do not get one here as that indicates one?

    Clinging onto the fact they mention the uncertainty in the northern extent, why does this keep happening? Is it just pure extremely bad luck or something else, as I'm pretty sure these systems made in further on a more regular occurrence in the past.

     

    If I read 'mainly in Wales and the West Midlands' on one more snow forecast

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and stormy weather
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
    2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

    I feel sick....

    908811468_Screenshot_2021-01-28UKweatherwarnings.thumb.png.5d90f0d00857a39b5e9abbd6e26beb1e.png

    What I do not understand is the shadow affect as we do not get one here as that indicates one?

    Clinging onto the fact they mention the uncertainty in the northern extent, why does this keep happening? Is it just pure extremely bad luck or something else? I'm pretty sure these systems made it further north on a more regular occurrence in the past.

    Yes, note the uncertainty in track illustrated by the matrix, potentially high impact, but lowest probability on the scale. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Dexter said:

    Interesting to see the warning area extending much further North over the Eastern part of the region compared to the West and South. Anyone know why this might be?

     

    1 minute ago, Dexter said:

    Interesting to see the warning area extending much further North over the Eastern part of the region compared to the West and South. Anyone know why this might be?

    Probably usual overestimation of coastal modification despite an offshore wind. I wouldn’t worry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Just a tad chilly end of GFS run! WOW!

    gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.7f822f62fe82b68e7e121e03ad44800b.pnggfsnh-1-384a.thumb.png.41a993463503d6de018b42847a50ed41.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    8 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

    Typical lol... hopefully will get all of us under it nearer the time

    Just looks same as last Sunday.. very annoying! Eyes to Tuesday now..

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and stormy weather
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
    2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     

    Probably usual overestimation of coastal modification despite an offshore wind. I wouldn’t worry.

    Cheers, the only possible explanation.  However, no modification on the North Wales coastline it seems. All academic at this stage anyway as track still not certain.

    Edited by Dexter
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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    28 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    Seriously what is it with these systems and not reaching Lancashire. The slider (think 2013) didn't reach. I think Crewe got some of that. 2017 slider or was it 2018 didn't reach. Last weekend didn't reach. Saturday won't reach. Why can't it hit the South Lakes just for once. I don't understand why they always just about reaches Cheshire. 
    95E44A33-FF0D-4691-B6ED-3EB2BD1061FF.thumb.gif.f2c70da1abd6ec5542392c2b8ea87080.gif

    199D4EF6-5178-40AC-B767-B462D2EADC60.thumb.png.59350ab9312968f64d602fdb02ac2b6f.png

    38F7BB50-EC30-46EB-86D8-BA70714FE3B9.thumb.png.99b6c12b3ba9c70aa4019a50588330af.png

    0338C94E-6549-4CBA-B915-603863F7ACCB.thumb.png.bdd7b1cdfc1eca595ad142f1c9379e8e.png

     

    I am not trying to shoot down your frustrations but even when they do touch Cheshire, literally spoon all falls from the sky as we are in the shadow.  Even last weekend we were right over it but somehow seemed to have a few flakes yet 15 miles east has 6-7cm. But I agree, they always seem to stall in the same spot.

    From a 'Grass is greener...' point I want the bands to push further north so we aren't in the 'weaker' part of the band so will help negate the shadow a bit more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
    12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Oh no surprise none make it to Cumbria! If it was all rain it would do! Moan over!

    Moan away, its the glue that binds us! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    GEFS

    gens-31-2-54.thumb.png.5e859418b5f70ea4fa82a14ffa415cbd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and stormy weather
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

    Euro 4 has been updated. Goes out to midday on Saturday. Has the ppn predominantly South of the region. This is about as close as it gets.

    image.thumb.png.d07672e655c75207913783d1319d7cb2.png

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    GFS 06 has the ppn further S.

    Sorry Chaps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
    1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

    06GFS gives the thumbs up for Saturday 

    Expect the weather warnings later,would think on the lines of 2-5cm low ground 5-10cm high ground 

    C.S

    Obviously it depends on where your thumbs are though and with mine connected to hands under house arrest in East Lancashire they are definitely 👎

    The one thing about this winter so far has been its predictability and although many can rightly say it’s been a good spell, for others including myself it’s been one let down after another.

    Yes we’ve had snow but at this altitude it’s hardly surprising but I’ve lost count of the number of times that we have found ourselves on the wrong side of every point on the compass and this weekend looks no different.

    good luck to everyone who gets something from the upcoming events but once again it looks like the M56 will be the northerly limit of anything but scraps.

     

     

    mine will be firmly 

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Oh no surprise none make it to Cumbria! If it was all rain it would do! Moan over!

    Not the only thing not visiting Cumbria 😑

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    3 minutes ago, Dexter said:

    Euro 4 has been updated. Goes out to midday on Saturday. Has the ppn predominantly South of the region. This is about as close as it gets.

    image.thumb.png.d07672e655c75207913783d1319d7cb2.png

    image.png

    May aswell be in Spain 💩

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