North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

You can see the shadow effect on the WRF for us. Looks really good for Merseyside, fingers crossed ! 

Do you get that shadow effect with all easterly type setups?

We are just far enough west so is probably our best setup here as anything off the Irish Sea needs -8 to -10 uppers otherwise it's just too wet.

[chris78]

17 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The main one's I use, also added WRF which I now use courtesy of @Chris.R

GFS

ECM

GEM

ICON

WRF

Nervous day then as there are still time for adjustments.

Blending them together, at the minute I would say the nothern extent being a line from about Southport across to Manchester.

Interesting, every one has the snow getting to me, its close on all of them, they all get there, yet the met o graphics say dry.    I know (Ive told ppl often enough) to ignore those graphics, but still striking with every model saying snow and those graphics have nothing above a 10% chance of rain  all day.   

Edited January 28, 2021 by chris78

[Day 10]

GEFS also looks good, infact includes most of us.

[Iceaxecrampon]

48 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

I agree. I'm not 100% sure either will reach us to be honest. Strength of the block always seems to be under estimated in these positions. 

But the strength of the block in the right place..........

Boom.

Someone gets lucky  - never PR4 lol

[A Face like Thunder]

1 hour ago, Dexter said:

A mild damp morning here. Last of the lying snow has now gone from the garden. Snowman still clinging on for dear life. Wondering if it will last until the possible snow event on Saturday, but we are on the Northern extent of this so chances are that it won't even make it this far North. Sunday now almost certainly looking to be cold and dry.

Mild and damp indeed. I'm told it poured during the night, and it is certainly v wet underfoot again this morning, but I have to say I didn't hear a thing!

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

WRF still shows a period of snow all Saturday morning and not light either. No marginality.

I must admit mate WRF has been very good this Winter - never used it before. When most had no snow reaching here last weekend, WRF stuck to it's guns and was bang on (I might add it didn't stick and was too light). This looks to have more oomph so hopefully WRF is on the money, big day today. I think we will have a very good idea by tonight what the track is likely to be.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Day 10

[Joe Bloggs]

13 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Do you get that shadow effect with all easterly type setups?

We are just far enough west so is probably our best setup here as anything off the Irish Sea needs -8 to -10 uppers otherwise it's just too wet.

Frontal easterly events can be brilliant for Merseyside, fingers crossed for you.

In answer to your question - no. Convective easterly showers penetrate over the Peaks very easily. For fronts, it’s more complicated. The shadow effect very often kicks in when the easterly (whether it’s E, NE or SE) is moderate to strong, and when heights aren’t sufficiently low. 
 

I discovered the phenomenon in 2013 when we stayed completely dry whereas Merseyside and West Cheshire had loads of snow. Didn’t even know it was a thing until then! 
 

Kev will be more of an expert and obviously Kasim and Chris know their stuff. 

[SP1986]

Here's a trivia question for all of you...

Before the GFS became arguably one of the main models to look at for synoptic analysis, what was the main model used before then? You will have to go back to before 2004 to find this model as it went defunct about then and evolved into/was replaced by the GFS we know today..

Edited January 28, 2021 by SP1986

[Joe Bloggs]

10 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Here's a trivia question for all of you...

Before the GFS became arguably one of the main models to look at for synoptic analysis, what was the main model used before then? You will have to go back to before 2004 to find this model as it went defunct about then and evolved into/was replaced by the GFS we know today..

AVN. 

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Here's a trivia question for all of you...

Before the GFS became arguably one of the main models to look at for synoptic analysis, what was the main model used before then? You will have to go back to before 2004 to find this model as it went defunct about then and evolved into/was replaced by the GFS we know today..

Opening the curtains?

[SP1986]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

AVN. 

I'm going to give that one because that was a model that went defunct. The fact you remember that is impressive I forgot about that one actually

[SP1986]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Opening the curtains?

Arguably more accurate than the old models to be honest!

[cheshire snow]

06GFS gives the thumbs up for Saturday 

Expect the weather warnings later,would think on the lines of 2-5cm low ground 5-10cm high ground 

C.S

[Dan B]

6ºC and mizzling here; ya know, that stuff that gets you right wet through

 

Even the Beeb are forecasting snow for us Saturday!

 

Fingers crossed they're right!

[Slidergate '17]

Having a look through most of the different models, (to my very untrained eye) Saturday looks like it is going to be an extremely close call for the south of NW England seeing a decent dumping of snow. Wales looks like seeing a lot tho!

[Day 10]

What are the run times for WRF @Chris.R or anyone else?

[Day 10]

20 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

06GFS gives the thumbs up for Saturday 

Expect the weather warnings later,would think on the lines of 2-5cm low ground 5-10cm high ground 

C.S

Even 2cm would be amazing! God, take me back to the 80's...

[Joe Bloggs]

29 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I'm going to give that one because that was a model that went defunct. The fact you remember that is impressive I forgot about that one actually

Hahahaha I thought AVN was replaced by GFS? 

[Spah1]

Seriously what is it with these systems and not reaching Lancashire. The slider (think 2013) didn't reach. I think Crewe got some of that. 2017 slider or was it 2018 didn't reach. Last weekend didn't reach. Saturday won't reach. Why can't it hit the South Lakes just for once. I don't understand why they always just about reaches Cheshire. 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Spah1

[Had Worse]

I did say we need to keep our feet on the ground. 

Its not often we get a freeze up, more a watered down solution.

[Snow free zone]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

But the strength of the block in the right place..........

Boom.

Someone gets lucky  - never PR4 lol

If it does get here you may be in a better position than me.  Any kind of SE wind and we are out of the game here.  I remember a couple of years ago when areas West, South and N of here god a really good covcering and here .... well enough said.  

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

I must admit mate WRF has been very good this Winter - never used it before. When most had no snow reaching here last weekend, WRF stuck to it's guns and was bang on (I might add it didn't stick and was too light). This looks to have more oomph so hopefully WRF is on the money, big day today. I think we will have a very good idea by tonight what the track is likely to be.

 It has hardly ever let me down tbh. Toyed with the idea of the precip not reaching us for a few runs last Friday then brought it back again and was correct.

 

absolutely nailed the back edge of storm Christoph and allowed me to make those minute by minute forecasts.

Generally if it shows something interesting 2–3 days out then I sit up and take notice.

[Day 10]

That is some seriously bitter cold heading our way out in FI!

[Chris.R]

43 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

What are the run times for WRF @Chris.R or anyone else?

Well it appears on Meteociel in tabular form at 05:15, 11:15, 17:15, 23:15. Charts probably available a little earlier.

[Spah1]

Chris do you use the 2km or 0.05? 
 

I don’t know the difference. 
 

cheers