North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[alr1970]

The Mersey in Chorlton/Sale at about 9 this morning.

Jacksons Bridge

Environment Agency staff preparing to open the sluice into Sale Water Park flood basin.

Lower paths on the river walls flooded.

At the Princess Road crossing

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

to be fair they're usually correct though! Emphasis on usually of course as on occasion they mess up.

Correct mainly at the last minute when on here it's old pretty much old news.

Not knocking them like.....

[alr1970]

 

 

[SP1986]

Incoming downburst or something

[Chris.R]

Liverpool TAF only shows a snow risk in the post frontal showers thinks the front will just be rain. Someone is going to be very wrong, probably me haha

[Chris.R]

Sunday looking good again on GFS although maybe snow to rain at the coast.

[Backtrack]

Met Office have no reason to offer anything but a rain warning for this evening, they don't issue warnings for a slight chance of back edge sleet for lower ground

[Had Worse]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Sunday looking good again on GFS although maybe snow to rain at the coast.

Morning Chris, 

Having 5 mins to myself as home schooling this morning is a £$%&ing nightmare.

I read your post about the snow threat this evening, is that still current or tailed off?

[cheshire snow]

Just looking at various models and wow look at the temperatures plumet this for Manchester Airport 1800 10c then jump to 2300 2c 

C.S

[Slidergate '17]

30 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

The Mersey in Chorlton/Sale at about 9 this morning.

Jacksons Bridge

Environment Agency staff preparing to open the sluice into Sale Water Park flood basin.

Lower paths on the river walls flooded.

At the Princess Road crossing

Thats quite high near Jackson's boat.. not the peak yet either!

[cheshire snow]

18 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Met Office have no reason to offer anything but a rain warning for this evening, they don't issue warnings for a slight chance of back edge sleet for lower ground

IMO met office Warnings not worth the paper they are written on how many times has there been snow Warnings for this region and its resulted in Zilch was there not an yellow warning for snow in the south a few days ago and the grand total was a splattering at best.

C.S

[Had Worse]

River level information for Glaze Brook at Little Woolden Hall - GOV.UK

FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK

---

Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

 3.05m as of 11am and the trend is steeply rising.

[Backtrack]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

IMO met office Warnings not worth the paper they are written on how many times has there been snow Warnings for this region and its resulted in Zilch was there not an yellow warning for snow in the south a few days ago and the grand total was a splattering at best.

C.S

If they don't issue a warning, it's usually a good thing!

[griff74]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

If they don't issue a warning, it's usually a good thing!

This is very true!! 

[Chris.R]

22 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Morning Chris, 

Having 5 mins to myself as home schooling this morning is a £$%&ing nightmare.

I read your post about the snow threat this evening, is that still current or tailed off?

Yep it’s still there see my post from about an hour ago. Slightly less perhaps for your location than I thought a few days ago because of precip timing  but still accumulations likely after 9 pm.

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

If they don't issue a warning, it's usually a good thing!

Indeed did they issue a warning for the snow event after Christmas?

C.S

[Day 10]

Already back edge snow Southern Ireland. 

[Had Worse]

Seem to remeber the warning was issued after about 2" had fallen

[chris78]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

If they don't issue a warning, it's usually a good thing!

I agree, I think they are usually about right.    When people criticise the meto, when either the forecast or the warning isnt exactly right, isnt it more a case that the the science of metrology isnt yet advanced enough to track the exact position of a system to within a few miles on our tiny island, rather than the meto making a blunder.   Their warning are often caveated with a note to say to a lot of uncertain remains, the forecasters on the media will emphasize this, but nobody remembers that, just the fact the warning said snow in Oldham and really it snowed in Liverpool.  They see that as meto getting  it wrong, which strictly they did, but its probably the case that there wasnt a person alive who could get it right, sure some people may have guessed Liverpool, but they got lucky, the fact is the science is not yet capable of being as accurate as we need it be for our little island.

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Already back edge snow Southern Ireland. 

My eldest gets 2 buses back from Oldham around 10pm and arrives back around 11.30pm. He might be able to get the bus to Ashton but then find the 237 isnt running if its bad back home. That leaves him stuck if the snow really comes down before clearing. The back up plan would be for him to walk to his grandparents but thats off as they are shielding.

These are the reasons why that snow risk is so important.

[SP1986]

Ireland nearly always does better than us for snow. Being mostly rural n all. The amount of times Ireland has seen snow and we've seen rain I've lost count... It happened a few weeks ago actually. 

[Backtrack]

19 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed did they issue a warning for the snow event after Christmas?

C.S

Nope! Patchy temporary dusting I think was their call

[Backtrack]

14 minutes ago, chris78 said:

I agree, I think they are usually about right.    When people criticise the meto, when either the forecast or the warning isnt exactly right, isnt it more a case that the the science of metrology isnt yet advanced enough to track the exact position of a system to within a few miles on our tiny island, rather than the meto making a blunder.   Their warning are often caveated with a note to say to a lot of uncertain remains, the forecasters on the media will emphasize this, but nobody remembers that, just the fact the warning said snow in Oldham and really it snowed in Liverpool.  They see that as meto getting  it wrong, which strictly they did, but its probably the case that there wasnt a person alive who could get it right, sure some people may have guessed Liverpool, but they got lucky, the fact is the science is not yet capable of being as accurate as we need it be for our little island.

I disagree with this. They have forecasters monitoring the current conditions all the time, especially when there's a threat of disruption. They have access to a real time radar and real time variables. It's honestly not that hard to make a judgement call based on the real time variables. Many members of this forum can make an educated forecast based on real time information just by looking at a radar that costs £3.49 a month. The quality of their forecasts, warnings and data just hasn't been the same since they lost the contract with the BBC.

[Selliso]

5 minutes ago, chris78 said:

I agree, I think they are usually about right.    When people criticise the meto, when either the forecast or the warning isnt exactly right, isnt it more a case that the the science of metrology isnt yet advanced enough to track the exact position of a system to within a few miles on our tiny island, rather than the meto making a blunder.   Their warning are often caveated with a note to say to a lot of uncertain remains, the forecasters on the media will emphasize this, but nobody remembers that, just the fact the warning said snow in Oldham and really it snowed in Liverpool.  They see that as meto getting  it wrong, which strictly they did, but its probably the case that there wasnt a person alive who could get it right, sure some people may have guessed Liverpool, but they got lucky, the fact is the science is not yet capable of being as accurate as we need it be for our little island.

I agree with this - it's an assessment of risk. You can look at the grids they provide to determine how likely they think any given situation actually is. Just an opinion, but although weather is a system with patterns and trends, it's ultimately a case of super complex computers trying to model chaos, with human intervention to add art to the science and make it relevant for a human audience. The warnings can never be read to say, for example, "there will be exactly 2" of snow in exactly your back yard at exactly 4pm next Friday" - they essentially say "somewhere within this area, it might snow - be aware" with caveats usually on distance from coast, elevation and if ppn is expected to be patchy etc. etc. etc. etc. It's just unrealistic to expect a warning area to be gospel. Sometime lower risk events never materialise at all, sometimes the risk is undermodelled and we get surprises. 

[weatherobsuk]

The rain was relentless here overnight to the point where for a few hours it sounded like there was a large truck parked outside the house on 'idle', this morning there's a few local area's already beginning to flood but nowhere major just yet aside from the A555 (no surprise.) 35.8mm fallen in Buxton since midnight with more to come.