North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[cheshire snow]

06GFS same as previous run suggests up to 10cm in places.

C.S

[SP1986]

I think it's looking likely there will be some snow on the back edge of this, around 8pm tonight in the west and southwest of the region then spreading east. However, the caveat is the uppers are not conducive to snow in moderate precipitation and any snow will absolutely require heavy-very heavy precipitation, or it will not occur. The other thing is, if we do end up getting the precipitation levels required to deliver snow, it will settle very quickly due to the intensity, but it will melt very quickly too as we won't have the conditions in place at that point for persisting snow cover. 

But falling snow looks likely this evening.

[severe snowstorm]

Euro 4 also showing some decent snow returns across the region this evening and showing snow right out to the coast as well.

[Chris.R]

Thursday/Friday.

 

latest GFS suggests that it will be a much cleaner feed of cold air than was predicted yesterday. Dewpoints overall are a little lower but the broad risk zones remain the same.
 

Above 200 m.

Graupel and sleet showers Thursday am. 

Wet snow showers and sleet showers mix Thursday pm.no accumulations.

Snow and graupel showers with possible lightning Thursday night. Small accumulations possible (temporary)

wet snow and graupel showers with possible lightning. Friday am. No or trace accumulations.

Snow/graupel showers Friday pm. with possible lightning, small accumulation possible.

Snow showers Friday night, moderate accumulations possible.

 

50–200 m and East of M6.

Graupel, sleet and ice pellet showers Thursday am.

rain, sleet and graupel showers Thursday pm.

sleet, graupel and wet snow showers with possible lightning Thursday night. Small accumulations possible (temporary) especially early.

rain, sleet, graupel and wet snow showers with possible lightning  Friday am, no accumulations.

sleet, ice pellets and wet snow showers with possible lightning Friday pm., small accumulations possible (temporary).

Snow and ice pellet showers Friday night. Small-moderate accumulations possible, especially late.

 

below 50 m and West of M6 to coast.

rain, sleet, and graupel showers with possible lightning Thursday am.

rain and graupel showers Thursday pm.

rain, sleet and graupel showers with possible lightning Thursday night.

rain, sleet and graupel showers with possible lightning Friday am.

sleet, and wet snow showers with possible lightning Friday pm., (no snow  showers immediate coast). small accumulations possible (temporary).

ice pellets, wet snow and snow showers Friday night (especially late). Small accumulations possible (especially late).

 

Will do the weekend when we get closer. 

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Euro 4 also showing some decent snow returns across the region this evening and showing snow right out to the coast as well.

Just getting the Christmas Tree back out the shed now. 

[WillinGlossop]

Netweather forecast for my postcode going for torrential snow tonight

[Iceaxecrampon]

10 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Euro 4 also showing some decent snow returns across the region this evening and showing snow right out to the coast as well.

Multiple likes

[frosty ground]

The GFS Ensembles have picked up a bit

 

[Day 10]

44 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Tonight.

 

Latest WRF continues to signpost a significant risk of heavy snow this evening. The exact duration and onset of this depends on your location.

Further north and above 100 m snow is likely from around 19:00. On low ground and further south it’s more like 20:00–21:00.

Likely to be a very swift transition especially if precip is heavy.

Surface temps could fall by 7° in a short time especially further south and on high ground.

Don’t want to make a guess on snow depths as situation is too fluid but certainly has potential for quick accumulation.

Some caveats.

Although the WRF and now other models are showing this scenario, the Met and BBC want absolutely nothing to do with it. The WRF has been rock solid showing this for a few days and it is rarely so wrong at this range. If it is wrong then kudos to Met/BBC but at the moment I am inclined to believe that they are wrong.

 

A little concerned that there may be transport problems as there will have been no prior warning of possible heavy snow and I am thinking of writing a post on FB to warn friends/Family of the *possible* risk.

We shall see what happens.

Stay safe everyone.

Don't know why but my brain always reads your WRF as What The F...! Maybe that's because when it does actually snow here that's what I say. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Just getting the Christmas Tree back out the shed now. 

Our shed is about to set sail

[Thunder Snow]

Thankfully the lull in the rain is allowing the rivers a chance to come down

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Netweather forecast for my postcode going for torrential snow tonight

Yeah, indications are that parts of the Peak District could be buried this evening. 

[griff74]

1 minute ago, Thunder Snow said:

Thankfully the lull in the rain is allowing the rivers a chance to come down

Yes, the River Irwell shows as holding it's level near me at the moment - River Irwell at Manchester Racecourse :: the UK River Levels Website

[severe snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Multiple likes

It's also showing an extensive area of snow out in the Irish Sea this afternoon. Read into that what you will 

[Backtrack]

12 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Thursday/Friday.

 

latest GFS suggests that it will be a much cleaner feed of cold air than was predicted yesterday. Dewpoints overall are a little lower but the broad risk zones remain the same.
 

 

You know this cold snap has classic Irish Sea hailstorms written all over it don't you? This is what I love about winter. The uncertainty of the Irish Sea, knowing that the shower is going to be absolutely torrential hail. I love it, I can't wait.

[Mark_p]

I wonder if the met office will come on board? I guess we don't have long to wait they often update around 11am. I reckon a yellow warning usual caveats 2-5cm high ground temporary accumulations low ground wintry showers...the usual phrases they like to trot out. 

[Mark_p]

Woops double post. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Mark88

[Backtrack]

20 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I think it's looking likely there will be some snow on the back edge of this, around 8pm tonight in the west and southwest of the region then spreading east. However, the caveat is the uppers are not conducive to snow in moderate precipitation and any snow will absolutely require heavy-very heavy precipitation, or it will not occur. The other thing is, if we do end up getting the precipitation levels required to deliver snow, it will settle very quickly due to the intensity, but it will melt very quickly too as we won't have the conditions in place at that point for persisting snow cover. 

But falling snow looks likely this evening.

Temps will rise as the cold front clears through, winds backing WNW. I think falling snow will be 200m+

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

You know this cold snap has classic Irish Sea hailstorms written all over it don't you? This is what I love about winter. The uncertainty of the Irish Sea, knowing that the shower is going to be absolutely torrential hail. I love it, I can't wait.

I love it too. Quite a bit of CAPE around from tomorrow night so could be some fun and games.

[Day 10]

Just now, Mark88 said:

I wonder if the met office will come on board? I guess we don't have long to wait they often update around 11am. I reckon a yellow warning usual caveats 2-5cm high ground temporary accumulations low ground wintry showers...the usual phrases they like to trot out. 

I know mate they are so vague at times, what's with the new one they trot out 'Wintry Hazards' that could mean absolutely anything. 

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

I wonder if the met office will come on board? I guess we don't have long to wait they often update around 11am. I reckon a yellow warning usual caveats 2-5cm high ground temporary accumulations low ground wintry showers...the usual phrases they like to trot out. 

I’ve got a feeling they won’t even do that. Will only issue a warning about 9 pm once it’s already started. Just have a feeling.

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I know mate they are so vague at times, what's with the new one they trot out 'Wintry Hazards' that could mean absolutely anything. 

It's the same issue in summer when they seem reluctant to say 'thunderstorm'. It's usually 'thundery showers' or ' thundery downpour'. It's like they don't want to alarm people.

[WillinGlossop]

Under bright echos on radar really hammering it down last ten minutes...  

[Iceaxecrampon]

7 minutes ago, Dexter said:

It's also showing an extensive area of snow out in the Irish Sea this afternoon. Read into that what you will 

Not hoping too much as per - were virtually below sea level fenland topography around these parts.

We've missed a couple of  easy trudges in Alpine conditions in Cumbria through the Cov for the sake of an hours drive  which is the galling factor (although I know a few who haven't)

[SP1986]

10 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

I wonder if the met office will come on board? I guess we don't have long to wait they often update around 11am. I reckon a yellow warning usual caveats 2-5cm high ground temporary accumulations low ground wintry showers...the usual phrases they like to trot out. 

to be fair they're usually correct though! Emphasis on usually of course as on occasion they mess up.