North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Weather-history]

The GFS 0z ensembles have some ridiculous snow amounts around here for early hours tomorrow

11 ensembles have 10cm> including the control, Oldham have 17 such ensembles 

WRF 0z

 

I'm not holding my breath with this. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The GFS 0z ensembles have some ridiculous snow amounts around here for early hours tomorrow

11 ensembles have 10cm> including the control, Oldham have 17 such ensembles 

WRF 0z

 

I'm not holding my breath with this. 

 

To be fair, the ICON is now showing some snowfall too

Also the EURO4

Edited January 20, 2021 by CreweCold

[cheshire snow]

Huge upgrade by this mornings GFS for heavy snow later tonight not often we get upgrades at short notice normally the reverse 

Manchester airport taf still showing the possibility 

C.S

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

To be fair, the ICON is now showing some snowfall too

Also the EURO4

I was more referring to those snow depths than actual snow falling.

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z

[severe snowstorm]

19 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Huge upgrade by this mornings GFS for heavy snow later tonight not often we get upgrades at short notice normally the reverse 

Manchester airport taf still showing the possibility 

C.S

Snow risk also shown on Liverpool Airport TAF from midnight. Could be a chance of waking up to a slushy covering in the morning.

[alr1970]

Mersey shooting up again, now higher than its peak last week.

[PennineMark]

Getting to more worrying levels of rain locally. 38.4mm yesterday but already 17mm here since midnight. Flood warnings on the River Roch through the town centre and in Littleborough. Hopefully river levels stay down as the last thing covid closed businesses need is the cost flooding brings. There's also a substation next to Rochdale 6th form college flooded in the Boxing Day floods that knocked out power to this side of town for 36 hours. Don't need that right now. 

[Day 10]

I'll add a few more to the mix.

It's only a few hours but, yes please!

[dodge]

...and yet the BBC are having none of it, just a few passing rogue wintry showers on the highest tops of the peaks & Pens...obviously I'm hoping the charts above come to fruition.  We'll have to see.

In the short term, slightly got away with the heaviest rain yesterday...don't think that will be the case today.  Outdoor work today, usually walk...but can be called on to swim if I have to.

No mercy....

Edited January 20, 2021 by dodge

[severe snowstorm]

7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I'll add a few more to the mix.

It's only a few hours but, yes please!

Wirral snow shield obliterated!

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Wirral snow shield obliterated!

Haha, that would be nice!

[trickydicky]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

ECM 0z

Here’s hoping. BBC look north forecast just now only showed showers ‘that might get down to low levels’. Their app seems to be more in line with what you have posted however. 

[robbo88]

Absolutely vile weather. Duvet day for me. These grey dull days are really affecting me atm.

As much as I want some snow, I'm yearning for spring and sunshine now.

I Hope that those of you that are essential workers out and about are staying safe! ?

 

[trickydicky]

Meanwhile the main BBC forecast is warning of 40cm of snow for north east Scotland tomorrow. That’s a fair old pasting. 

[A Face like Thunder]

The Flood Watch thread currently has a persistent moderate 'rain train' heading eastwards from N Wales towards us in S Cheshire. I wonder how much this will affect us or whether (as seemed to happen yesterday) we remain in the shadow of the N Wales mountains and miss most of the heavy rain. Flood alerts in Northwich and Nantwich, but nothing more at the moment. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Relentless.

Very concerning.

[Chris.R]

Morning guys.

Will post my latest thoughts in a minute. Will break down into separate posts covering each possible event.

Overall not much changed since my thoughts yesterday if anything a slight upgrade.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Chris.R

[Dan B]

9ºC and constant rain now since last night; hasn't let up once...

 

Both TWO and here forecasting snow for us tonight (and the next few days); but the Beeb and METO don't show it at all...

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Morning guys.

Morning guys.

Will post my latest thoughts in a minute. Will break down into separate posts covering each possible event.

Overall not much changed since my thoughts yesterday if anything a slight upgrade.

No nothing much changed - I've progressed from wellies to waders.....

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Dan B said:

9ºC and constant rain now since last night; hasn't let up once...

 

Both TWO and here forecasting snow for us tonight (and the next few days); but the Beeb and METO don't show it at all...

Yes - will see  - and will know who is the reliable in future.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Off out to the fields for a Terrier walk (swim) soon - might take a few local images although I flooded one iPhone last week. Runnels are up.

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, robbo88 said:

Absolutely vile weather. Duvet day for me. These grey dull days are really affecting me atm.

As much as I want some snow, I'm yearning for spring and sunshine now.

I Hope that those of you that are essential workers out and about are staying safe! ?

 

Agree always think we hit the low point third week January, we've nearly had 3 months of dark by now and Spring seems a long way away still.

It does flatline now, and then a gradual pick up starting around mid Feb which accelerates markedly especially when the sun is out.

Hold in there..

Back to the weather, heaviest precipitation currently over S Pennines and southern parts of the region.

A few green pixels appearing on the radar over Lakeland fells a signal the colder air is now kicking in.

Varied output for tonight, some models suggesting quite a bit of wintry precipitation to relatively low levels, other show very little. Will be a nowcast.

May see further changes to current Met Office warnings this morning so something to keep an eye on.

[SP1986]

Full on downpour that doesn't seem to want to end. The woodland near to me has a stream running through that often becomes a raging torrent when it rains heavy. I think half of the woodland will be under water by tomorrow morning 

[Chris.R]

Tonight.

 

Latest WRF continues to signpost a significant risk of heavy snow this evening. The exact duration and onset of this depends on your location.

Further north and above 100 m snow is likely from around 19:00. On low ground and further south it’s more like 20:00–21:00.

Likely to be a very swift transition especially if precip is heavy.

Surface temps could fall by 7° in a short time especially further south and on high ground.

Don’t want to make a guess on snow depths as situation is too fluid but certainly has potential for quick accumulation.

Some caveats.

Although the WRF and now other models are showing this scenario, the Met and BBC want absolutely nothing to do with it. The WRF has been rock solid showing this for a few days and it is rarely so wrong at this range. If it is wrong then kudos to Met/BBC but at the moment I am inclined to believe that they are wrong.

 

A little concerned that there may be transport problems as there will have been no prior warning of possible heavy snow and I am thinking of writing a post on FB to warn friends/Family of the *possible* risk.

We shall see what happens.

Stay safe everyone.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Chris.R