North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

The NetWX-MR is also showing potential for snow from wed 21.00 - sun 12.00  , all looks good at moment with each update getting better, just hope they don't crash our dreams last minute

Best day for heavy snow is a Thursday, one that is followed by cold air for at least 3 days, followed by Friday and the weekend. Worst timing is probably a Sunday night or Monday morning..

[Weather-history]

On 15/01/2021 at 22:28, Had Worse said:

Your input is highly valued. The MOD thread is and has been like that for ages.

Some of our local members will occasionally post on it and then come back to this thread for fear of being decapitated lol.

The model thread is at its worst when a potential cold spell starts to wobble or goes belly up, that thread is to be avoided, IMO.

Unfortunately this time of the year brings all sorts out who can't be bothered posting the rest of the year, weather is a ll year including one or two who I won't name who do all this detail analysis, post after post, and then come start of March disappear. One particular member made no posts during the beast from the east yet they spent all winter giving their analysis and when a big winter weather event is just about to strike, they disappeared until the start of the following winter!

[SP1986]

The Met office suggesting 200mm of rain falling on the higher ground of North Wales and Pennines in their warning which is crazy and quite worrying for those residing on the lower ground around river systems with their origin on that high ground (and not to forget the extra 10mm or so of snowmelt)

I wonder if, come the time, we could end seeing a very rare 'red warning' for rain due to the potential for deep water flash flooding.

 

 

[iand61]

20 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The Met office suggesting 200mm of rain falling on the higher ground of North Wales and Pennines in their warning which is crazy and quite worrying for those residing on the lower ground around river systems with their origin on that high ground (and not to forget the extra 10mm or so of snowmelt)

I wonder if, come the time, we could end seeing a very rare 'red warning' for rain due to the potential for deep water flash flooding.

 

 

I’d say that there’s every chance of a red being issued, especially once the exact track becomes clearer.

It’s looking like some pretty poor weather for the next few days across all of the region; for some though it’s looking likely to be disruptive.

[Weather-history]

 

GFS 12z op  run by the end the 2nd of February....OMG  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Weather-history

[Snow free zone]

Forecast rainfall totals looking really worrying this morning. Currently just on the edge of the Amber area here, but this can and most probably will change looking at the predictions,

[A Face like Thunder]

11 hours ago, Rain Lady said:

Has anyone added up the total amount in the continuous "rain event" in Netweather's forecast, from late Monday to early Thurs?  I make ours to be 96.35mm.  That's a "bit wet" even by NW standards.   Surely worthy of a named storm, even if we have to name it ourselves.   Perhaps the problem is that there's more than one low pressure in the airtstream.   Twins or even triplets all holding hands.

As always Rain Lady, I shall be interested to see your actual rainfall totals in an area which I know well. I wonder whether, come 1st Jan 2022, you find that you have had another record rainfall during the year! 

[A Face like Thunder]

A very different day in prospect compared to 14 years ago today, see 'historic weather' thread.

[Had Worse]

Well the rain is serving up its starter with a succession of showers from the irish sea.

The fountain (Top of River Etherow) at the bottom of Bottoms reservoir is shooting 35ft straight up and with all other reservoirs full,  the flow is going to resemble that canoeing water course thats on the Trent near Holme Pierrepoint.

[griff74]

Well it well worthwhile giving the car a good wash yesterday and seal (or not), at least I got all the mud and salt off it and from under the wheels wells, sills etc I guess!! lol 

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, griff74 said:

Well it well worthwhile giving the car a good wash yesterday and seal (or not), at least I got all the mud and salt off it and from under the wheels wells, sills etc I guess!! lol 

I think that was OTT, dont you?

[A Face like Thunder]

14 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Highly unlikely to snow on my Birthday (25 June) but might get a hail storm from a good thunderstorm.

25th June 2007 was memorable but for heavy rain rather than snow!

[A Face like Thunder]

3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I think that was OTT, dont you?

I realise the seals on my ancient Fiesta have gone and it is no longer waterproof inside!

[Iceaxecrampon]

METO has a yellow out for rain Thursday - seems in conflict with ECM GFS.

[A Face like Thunder]

12 hours ago, Rain Lady said:

Has anyone added up the total amount in the continuous "rain event" in Netweather's forecast, from late Monday to early Thurs?  I make ours to be 96.35mm.  That's a "bit wet" even by NW standards.   Surely worthy of a named storm, even if we have to name it ourselves.   Perhaps the problem is that there's more than one low pressure in the airtstream.   Twins or even triplets all holding hands.

Good point Rain Lady, why isn't it named? As you've pointed this out and we need a (NW-based) relevant girl's name beginning with 'A', could I suggest 'Storm Abbey-stead' ? I'll get my coat 

[alr1970]

9 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

METO has a yellow out for rain Thursday - seems in conflict with ECM GFS.

It's still yesterday's warning, I expect an update before lunchtime.

[The Northern Ramper]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The model thread is at its worst when a potential cold spell starts to wobble or goes belly up, that thread is to be avoided, IMO.

Unfortunately this time of the year brings all sorts out who can't be bothered posting the rest of the year, weather is a ll year including one or two who I won't name who do all this detail analysis, post after post, and then come start of March disappear. One particular member made no posts during the beast from the east yet they spent all winter giving their analysis and when a big winter weather event is just about to strike, they disappeared until the start of the following winter!

Some people just turn up to bait every winter, most of these are on my blocked list and have been since 2013

[Chris.R]

Notice how there’s hardly any posts in the mad thread  now there’s no chance of a B f t E in the foreseeable?

[cheshire snow]

From 06GFS

C.S

[Chris.R]

On the other hand i’d say it’s looking pretty good for us.

[griff74]

41 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I think that was OTT, dont you?

Hahahaha, it's not quite that bad, at least the water looks all nice beading off the paintwork!

Edited January 18, 2021 by griff74

[frosty ground]

North of our region get wintry by Wednesday evening.

The cold air makes inroads further south later on, think coastal areas will be the wrong side of marginal but there is time for that to change.

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Notice how there’s hardly any posts in the mad thread  now there’s no chance of a B f t E in the foreseeable?

Northern England and Scotland do not belong in the Mod thread.

[Chris.R]

WRF coming into range in a minute for Wednesday night, will give my thoughts for my location soon.

[Had Worse]

19 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Northern England and Scotland do not belong in the Mod thread.

The tone this morning is getting a few posters down on the MOD thread. If posters can keep their feelings out of what is being shown, that would fit in the thread.

The ramps and moans thread keeps impinging onto the model thread, more so if they are closer to France and the low countries, if you get my drift.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Had Worse