Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Empire Of Snow]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Ah the Baltic streamer. I mentioned it a day or so back. On the meteociel rain radar you can track them. They appear over the Baltic then dissappear over land and reignite over the North sea. 

Morning! I guess these streamers affect mostly South Yorkshire? Or could they extend further North? I suppose it's going to be radar watching all these days which is fun but also frustrating at the same time.

[Frostbite1980]

I have that sinking feeling south lincs is going to be in a dry spot most of this cold spell as most models show streamer setting up north and south of here

[SouthYorks]

21 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Morning! I guess these streamers affect mostly South Yorkshire? Or could they extend further North? I suppose it's going to be radar watching all these days which is fun but also frustrating at the same time.

South Yorkshire was the prime spot in 2010,  and is looking that way at the moment based on GEM, but they do tend to edge North and South.  In 2010 I remember when it started Barnsley was in the direct firing line and we did well with about 9 or 10 inches.  But it edged South and Sheffield/Chesterfield got the best of it.  I remember my dad (who was not a cold fan) measuring 17” on the top of his bin!

As other have said, it will very much come down to nowcast and radar watching but lets hope everyone in our region gets a decent share! 

[LeeSnowFan]

4 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

South Yorkshire was the prime spot in 2010,  and is looking that way at the moment based on GEM, but they do tend to edge North and South.  In 2010 I remember when it started Barnsley was in the direct firing line and we did well with about 9 or 10 inches.  But it edged South and Sheffield/Chesterfield got the best of it.  I remember my dad (who was not a cold fan) measuring 17” on the top of his bin!

As other have said, it will very much come down to nowcast and radar watching but lets hope everyone in our region gets a decent share! 

I remember 2010 well , I measured nearly 2 foot here it was amazing, our estate dosen't get gtitted so we were housebound for nearly a week , never seen snow that deep in my life

[joggs]

High res models will start picking things up in 24 hrs. The thing that makes me wonder is on the meto txt they said heaviest in n and ne but to me the se looks like been the spot for the front and the troughs to follow.

I guess things can change.

[Tink 2010]

1 hour ago, SouthYorks said:

Overnight run from the GEM is peach showing a Humber streamer, sourced all the way from the Baltic Sea,  starting on Monday morning and running for over 50 hours in broadly the same location.  If this sets up as predicted by the GEM whoever gets under it is going to get copious amounts of snow!

Think this post will be my favourite of the day 

[johnholmes]

I promised Craigers to try and link in to my article on the Nov-Dec 2010 snow event. Since then several others have asked for it so I'll drop it in the main local thread.

 

Snowfall of 30 November into 1 December in this area.doc

[Sunny_AS]

Confused about the Saturday night Low. Is it going to hit us or will it just be a SE phenomenon?

[oldmucker]

Just now, Sunny_AS said:

Confused about the Saturday night Low. Is it going to hit us or will it just be a SE phenomenon?

me too im confused too!!

[Yorkshirepudding]

Morning guys, thank you @johnholmes for posting your article on 2010 really enjoyed reading it . 
 

below is a couple of fax charts the first I’ve stolen off John (hope you don’t mind pal) from December 1 2010 the other is the UKMO 12z fax chart for Monday the 8th 2021. Obviously by no way identical but there’s similarities one been the high pressure over Norway and the low pressure that’s due to move across us through Saturday and move down into Europe opening the flood gates for these easterly showers. So for the people out there that are wondering where exactly these showers will or will not occur and how often etc, The low pressure will play a big part but without knowing the exact track it will take its pretty impossible to forecast. But I will say it’s looking great for our region and possibly special for some lucky buggers in our region lol

[johnholmes]

Streamers cannot be forecast with any accuracy even 24 hours ahead. Come Monday look at the infra red satellite piccs to see what/where in the N Sea convective type cloud is, check the 700 mb wind flow (this is usually the direction the clouds will move, and watch the radar. Remember that convective cloud will also, some time develop, and other times decrease as they move. The showers usually tend to decrease in intensity and frequency as they move inland BUT local effects, like increasing height, can negate this and increase the ppn rate. All very complex.

[LeeSnowFan]

This really is the best regional page! we have some great posters in here who actually post stuff we can understand it's going to be an exciting few days or maybe longer! hope we all get some snow and look forward to seeing great pictures in the coming days

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, Tinker Bell said:

Think this post will be my favourite of the day 

.  Of course, I’m not saying this what WILL happen as GEM is just one model throwing out one outcome of many.  

However, in my mind this is the best potential period since 2010, and we’ll be very unlucky if we son’t get some decent streamers and some of us may well get very lucky with snow depths!  

But for now, feet firmly on the ground and lets see what the hi-res models start to show today and tomorrow and then it’ll be on to radar watching from Monday.  

[adrianh]

Going my completely untrained eye, looks like the region might get an initial covering Saturday night into Sunday morning and then a period of drier weather on Sunday before the showers start to pile in once the low pressure slips south east. It'll then be down to radar watching - hopefully if a streamer does set up, it'll move a bit so we all get into the action.

Very exciting few days ahead either way and even if a breakdown does occur on Thursday, there's no real sign of an organised polar vortex so it could well be a brief milder interlude before pressure builds to the north again.

[LeeSnowFan]

12 minutes ago, adrianh said:

Going my completely untrained eye, looks like the region might get an initial covering Saturday night into Sunday morning and then a period of drier weather on Sunday before the showers start to pile in once the low pressure slips south east. It'll then be down to radar watching - hopefully if a streamer does set up, it'll move a bit so we all get into the action.

Very exciting few days ahead either way and even if a breakdown does occur on Thursday, there's no real sign of an organised polar vortex so it could well be a brief milder interlude before pressure builds to the north again.

I believe we were due showers though much of sunday? 

[LeeSnowFan]

Saturday 9pm all way though to 6pm sunday and still going snow showers

[LeeSnowFan]

And they continue all way through monday as well

[Cold Winter]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

Saturday 9pm all way though to 6pm sunday and still going snow showers

Yep, pleased with what the GFS is showing. It handles convection reasonably well in my opinion. Usually in these scenarios it shows showers across the sea and up to the coast = showers along the coast. The fact that it’s showing snow over most of Yorkshire suggests they should push inland reasonably well. My only concern is how long it’ll take us further east especially to see settling snow. I’d love to see some lying snow on Sunday but wonder if I might have to wait until Sunday night for some heavier showers to come along to give us our first proper covering of the winter.

[adrianh]

2 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

I believe we were due showers though much of sunday? 

Think it'll depend how long that low pressure takes to slip south east.

These precipitation charts suggest a bit of a 'dry zone' north of the low or at least less intense/scattered showers until the low clears fully but it'll be down to radar watching on the day no doubt! It might be more the Midlands that has to suffer rather than Yorkshire

 

[LeeSnowFan]

Also temps are 0 and below for saturday night, all of sunday and all through monday so snow that falls isn't going to melt anytime soon!

 

 

Tuesday 12pm its still minus temps!

Edited February 5, 2021 by LeeSnowFan

[Pewkzii]

4 hours ago, Love Snow said:

Welcome to the ride  I will leave your answer to the experts on here we have some great members who will lead the way on the day. But what I’ve learnt in these kinds of setups it will come down nowcasting on the day. Will be plenty of opportunity’s with showers coming in off the coast from Saturday evening and  no doubt features will pop up as the week goes on.

Thanks so much for the reply I've wanted to join in for a while but I am no professional just love the cold - ill be watching and waiting and counting down with everyone else hehe - I'm known as the weather girl as i never shut up about it lol 

[Craigers]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

I promised Craigers to try and link in to my article on the Nov-Dec 2010 snow event. Since then several others have asked for it so I'll drop it in the main local thread.

 

Snowfall of 30 November into 1 December in this area.doc 1.81 MB · 24 downloads

Sensational read and just shows how amazing this event can be comparing the charts to the 2010 from today! Thank you John!

[winterof79]

Cold weather alert - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Cold weather alert - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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oh this is an upgrade as I believe it was level 2 yesterday

[LeeSnowFan]

Update 10.55

Cold air, along with snow showers to low levels pushing inland from the North Sea, is expected to spread south during the weekend. Not all locations will see snow, with the showers likely to miss some places altogether. In addition to the showers, there is a potential that an extended period of more persistent snowfall could impact parts of the East Midlands overnight Saturday and through Sunday. This is all likely to bring areas of accumulating snow through the period with some icy stretches developing, with many parts seeing 2-5 cm of snow, with 10-15 cm possible, especially above 200 m in northern England and Scotland.