Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Bradowl]

4 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

I'm getting a bit worried with some of the ppn charts I see for my area. Looks like there won't be much activity here and most of it is going south? 

I wouldn't be worried about that this far out, there's certain to be some locations seeing more snow than others but it's hard to pinpoint exact locations right now. 

[HellItsHot]

19 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Them apps are useless, always way out with temperatures and symbols half of time. 

I only use my BBC weather app for keeping an eye on destinations abroad that I visit. 

They seem to be more accurate with Benidorm than Sheffield. 

Yeah but given all the talk of a foot of snow I wasn’t expecting fewer snow symbols than yesterday!

[LeeSnowFan]

Saturday 9pm

[Aiden2020]

Gfs 6z is an absolute dream for Bridlington and pocklington

[LeeSnowFan]

Just now, Aiden2020 said:

Gfs 6z is an absolute dream for Bridlington and pocklington

and other areas in yorkshire too!!!

[Aiden2020]

1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

and other areas in yorkshire too!!!

Well yeah I know haha sorry I’m just getting wayyyyy to excited now lol

[LeeSnowFan]

Just now, Aiden2020 said:

Well yeah I know haha sorry I’m just getting wayyyyy to excited now lol

no i understand I get it its great some areas are getting snow that haven't seen any its very welcome but other area's in yorkshire will also do very well its something we all need to make us smile as before lockdown  spring is arriving lol boooooo

[Yorkshirepudding]

24 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

I'm getting a bit worried with some of the ppn charts I see for my area. Looks like there won't be much activity here and most of it is going south? 

I wouldn’t worry too much just yet buddy, the low moving over on Saturday isn’t nailed to its exact track yet which will influence where the PPN is most likely initially. 50-100miles is nothing of a shift in weather terms and don’t forget these showers haven’t even been made in the atmosphere yet. I’ve learnt over the years in these setups you’ll find Forecasts etc saying one thing regarding where the projected showers are which isn’t in your location and you end up having a streamer above your head giving several CMs.

[LeeSnowFan]

anyone order a streamer for yorkshire?

[oldmucker]

Hi there

can any experts shed any light on why all the models seem to show Hornsea area getting pretty much nothing? We are right on the east coast which looks like it should be a good place to get snow from an easterly but yet all the forecast maps that people are posting show hardly anything? As an avid snow lover I have spent the last few weeks seeing family in south and west yorkshire posting all their snow pics and now I finally think its our time and we should have a really good chance being right in the east, all the maps pretty much show zilch for here but again south and west yorkshire showing loads of snow? any ideas?

[tyson99]

What’s the chances of South Yorkshire / north Nottinghamshire - 65 miles inland from the wash - missing out on the snow event !

seems to be more and more of a chance looking at the models and more concentrated in the south and south east ?

[LeeSnowFan]

from mad thread

The snow computer flags up the greatest risk of snowfall Sunday going into Monday being over Southern Northern England ( maybe from North Sea trough alignment focused in that location). Elsewhere snow convective cells widely north of The Wash and up to Scotland on the eastern side. Tuesday flags up some snow potential for Southern England on Tuesday but as yet does not provide a accuracy percentage rate. The team think the deepest cold air will arrive early on Tuesday.

[Hullsnow87]

How far are we off the hi res model picking up the instability will we see lake effect snow of the North Sea?

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, oldmucker said:

Hi there

can any experts shed any light on why all the models seem to show Hornsea area getting pretty much nothing? We are right on the east coast which looks like it should be a good place to get snow from an easterly but yet all the forecast maps that people are posting show hardly anything? As an avid snow lover I have spent the last few weeks seeing family in south and west yorkshire posting all their snow pics and now I finally think its our time and we should have a really good chance being right in the east, all the maps pretty much show zilch for here but again south and west yorkshire showing loads of snow? any ideas?

Quite often, the medium range, lower resolution models struggle with things like surface temperatures and snow depths etc right next to the coasts. This is because their resolution is low enough that the grid square for some locations on the coast may actually be 99% in the sea, which obviously really messes with the output (snow doesn't tend to settle on the sea very often!). Higher resolution models shouldn't have as much of a problem with this though, so as things come into range of more of those then you should start to see a more true picture. 

Welcome to the forum by the way  

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Hullsnow87 said:

How far are we off the hi res model picking up the instability will we see lake effect snow of the North Sea?

hopefully some of our more experienced members in this thread will shed some light for us on the latest mods soon but it is looking good for most of yorkshire

[oldmucker]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Quite often, the medium range, lower resolution models struggle with things like surface temperatures and snow depths etc right next to the coasts. This is because their resolution is low enough that the grid square for some locations on the coast may actually be 99% in the sea, which obviously really messes with the output (snow doesn't tend to settle on the sea very often!). Higher resolution models shouldn't have as much of a problem with this though, so as things come into range of more of those then you should start to see a more true picture. 

Welcome to the forum by the way  

Thank you for the reply - and the welcome   that makes sense!! I have lived here a few years but having moved from high up in west yorkshire its very different here. We have had snow here in last few years namely the 2018 "beast from the east" but it was only a few cm's. I will keep my fingers crossed that we may finally be in a good position with this current setup

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:

How far are we off the hi res model picking up the instability will we see lake effect snow of the North Sea?

They're already picking up a lot of showers, with some streamer like activity visible amongst them. Streamers and the like can be nowcast / inside 24 hour type events to really get a handle on though. Some highlights from the UKV 3z earlier:

   

[Hullsnow87]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

They're already picking up a lot of showers, with some streamer like activity visible amongst them. Streamers and the like can be nowcast / inside 24 hour type events to really get a handle on though. Some highlights from the UKV 3z earlier:

   

So would you say high lapse rates and lake effect snow or just normal shower

[adrianh]

The cold looks to get sufficiently entrenched that I'd be shocked if the entire region didn't at least get a moderate covering  with the potential for some memorable depths for those who get under the 'streamers'.

This could well be an extended period too - the models are starting to toy with height rises to the north of us which might be enough to send the Atlantic lows to the south of the country. Either way, a very exciting week or so ahead!

[oldmucker]

4 minutes ago, adrianh said:

The cold looks to get sufficiently entrenched that I'd be shocked if the entire region didn't at least get a moderate covering  with the potential for some memorable depths for those who get under the 'streamers'.

This could well be an extended period too - the models are starting to toy with height rises to the north of us which might be enough to send the Atlantic lows to the south of the country. Either way, a very exciting week or so ahead!

fingers crossed!!! if i miss out totally in hornsea it doesnt look like i will have too far to drive to find some snow LOL

[Bradowl]

I'm on 95% certain that this will happen, I won't be at 100% till I see wind switch to an Easterly though which looks like it could be later tomorrow. 

[cowdog]

Met have split the warnings, now a separate one for Monday. Both now cover most of the Central and East UK.

 

Quote

Cold air, along with snow showers to low levels pushing inland from the North Sea, is expected to spread south during the weekend. Not all locations will see snow, with the showers likely to miss some places altogether. In addition to the showers, there is a chance that an extended period of more persistent snowfall could impact parts of the Midlands and southeast England overnight Saturday and through Sunday. This is all likely to bring areas of accumulating snow through the period with some icy stretches developing, with some parts seeing 5-10 cm, possibly 15 cm of snow. Although disruption from this event could occur anywhere within this region, the Midlands and south-east England is the area most likely to see disruptive snow accumulating more widely, from later Saturday until the middle of Sunday.

Seems to be they think heaviest is going to be down south.

Edited February 4, 2021 by cowdog

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, HellItsHot said:

Yeah but given all the talk of a foot of snow I wasn’t expecting fewer snow symbols than yesterday!

Don't focus on depth right now. There is a chance of significant accumulations in some places but you should set your expectations at a more reasonable double digits.

43 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:

 

Won't let me delete.

[LeeSnowFan]

Snow symbols have gone from my area for sunday hmmm but that means nothing 

[summer blizzard]

22 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Met have split the warnings, now a separate one for Monday. Both now cover most of the Central and East UK.

Seems to be they think heaviest is going to be down south.

Sun has the front dropping south so it's more sustained than any shower activity.

 

We will probably be fine.

Edited February 4, 2021 by summer blizzard